Opinion polling for the 1982 Spanish general election
In the run up to the
opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 1st Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election
, held on 1 March 1979, to the day the next election was held, on 28 October 1982.
Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Electoral polling
Nationwide polling
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an
absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies
.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PNV | 
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 general election | 28 Oct 1982 | — | 80.0 | 6.8 11 |
48.1 202 |
4.1 4 |
26.4 107 |
3.7 12 |
0.5 0 |
0.4 0 |
1.9 8 |
1.0 2 |
0.7 1 |
0.5 1 |
[a] | 2.9 2 |
21.7 |
| PSOE[1] | 28 Oct 1982 | 85,300 | ? | 6.6 13 |
48.0 202 |
4.3 4 |
26.0 103 |
4.0 13 |
– | 0.4 0 |
2.0 9 |
0.9 3 |
0.6 1 |
0.4 0 |
[a] | 3.1 2 |
22.0 |
| Ideal[2] | 28 Oct 1982 | ? | 75.7 | 7.2 13 |
45.7 198 |
3.8 5 |
25.5 104 |
4.5 12 |
0.4 0 |
– | 2.1 8 |
1.0 2 |
0.7 1 |
0.5 0 |
[a] | 2.6 2 |
20.2 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][3][4] | 16–19 Oct 1982 | 18,255 | 78.5 | 6.5 7/12 |
48.6 193/217 |
5.9 8/11 |
24.0 87/107 |
2.5 8/9 |
1.0 0 |
– | 1.7 8/10 |
1.1 4/5 |
0.8 1 |
0.7 3 |
[a] | 4.0 4/5 |
24.6 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[5][6] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | ? | 9.5 18 |
49.2 217 |
7.8 14 |
18.2 69 |
0.7 5 |
1.0 0 |
0.2 0 |
2.2 11 |
0.9 3 |
0.2 1 |
0.7 2 |
[a] | 5.9 8 |
31.0 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7] | 1–7 Oct 1982 | 1,163 | ? | 5.0 | 51.0 | 4.3 | 19.3 | – | 0.9 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 4.6 | 31.7 |
| CDS[8] | 4 Oct 1982 | ? | ? | ? 14/16 |
? 166/170 |
? 15/16 |
? 87/93 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | ? 20/34 |
? |
| SEE[7] | 4 Oct 1982 | ? | ? | ? 21 |
? 158 |
? 15 |
? 121 |
? 14 |
– | ? 1 |
? 10 |
? 2 |
? 1 |
? 2 |
[a] | ? 5 |
? |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 78.8 | 10.6 | 45.9 | 5.8 | 16.3 | – | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 8.4 | 29.6 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7][10] | 24–30 Sep 1982 | 2,460 | ? | 4.8 | 51.5 | 5.2 | 14.8 | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 2.3 | 36.7 |
| AP[11][12] | 27 Sep 1982 | 6,000 | ? | ? 15 |
? 141 |
? 11 |
27.4 125 |
? 14 |
– | ? 1 |
? 7 |
? 2 |
? 1 |
? 2 |
[a] | ? 5 |
? |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 6–26 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | 10.0 | 44.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24.0 |
| UCD[14][15] | 22 Sep 1982 | 25,000 | 64 | ? 40 |
? 200 |
? 9 |
? 60 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | ? 2 |
? |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 5–19 Sep 1982 | 3,000 | ? | 10.7 | 51.3 | 6.0 | 13.0 | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.2 | 38.3 |
| El País[16] | 9 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | 13.6 | 48.3 | 6.4 | 18.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29.8 |
| Birds[17] | 7 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 53 |
? 156 |
? 16 |
? 85 |
? 14 |
? 1 |
– | ? 9 |
? 4 |
? 1 |
[c] | – | ? 11 |
? |
| ABC[17] | 5 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 26 |
? 190 |
? 17 |
? 75 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ? 20 |
? |
| UCD[18][19][20] | 4 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 35 |
? 180 |
? 12 |
? 80 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ? 15 |
? |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7][21] | 24–30 Aug 1982 | 2,460 | ? | 8.5 | 50.7 | 5.6 | 11.8 | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.4 | 38.9 |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[b][22] | 6 Aug 1982 | 1,857 | 84.8 | 8.0 | 42.1 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.2 | – | 29.9 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 5–18 Jul 1982 | ? | ? | 14.0 | 45.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 26.0 |
| AP[23] | 31 May–30 Jun 1982 | 6,000 | ? | ? 28 |
? 144 |
? 9 |
? 103 |
? 9 |
– | – | ? 7 |
? 2 |
– | ? 1 |
– | – | ? |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 5–25 Apr 1982 | ? | ? | 17.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| Tiempo[24] | 12 Dec 1981 | ? | ? | 21.0 105 |
33.1 144 |
9.1 25 |
11.4 38 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 2–22 Nov 1981 | ? | ? | 20.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| CEF/PSOE[25] | 28 Oct 1981 | ? | ? | 20.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| AP[26] | 6 Oct 1981 | ? | ? | 17.0– 21.0 |
29.0– 32.0 |
7.0– 10.0 |
9.0– 13.0 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11.0– 12.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 8 Jul–17 Sep 1981 | ? | ? | 17.0 | 44.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 3 Jun–16 Jul 1981 | ? | ? | 21.0 | 45.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 6 May–18 Jun 1981 | ? | ? | 23.0 | 43.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 11 Apr–21 May 1981 | ? | ? | 25.0 | 40.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[27][28] | 4 Mar–23 Apr 1981 | 1,879 | ? | 23.6 | 42.0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][30] | 16 Jan–23 Feb 1981 | 1,892 | ? | 25.9 | 36.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | [c] | – | – | 10.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 16–30 Jan 1981 | ? | ? | 26.2 | 35.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9.3 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 3 Nov–14 Dec 1980 | ? | ? | 27.4 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 8.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][31] | 6 Oct–16 Nov 1980 | 1,892 | ? | 28.3 | 33.9 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | [c] | – | – | 5.6 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 6–19 Oct 1980 | ? | ? | 28.7 | 34.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 4 Aug–14 Sep 1980 | ? | ? | 27.7 | 33.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][32][33] | 9 Jun–6 Jul 1980 | 1,888 | ? | 25.8 | 33.8 | 10.4 | 8.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][34][35] | 9–16 Jun 1980 | 1,002 | ? | 26.3 | 32.7 | 10.0 | 8.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 11 Mar–21 Apr 1980 | ? | ? | 29.6 | 29.3 | 9.5 | 6.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][36][37] | 11–21 Mar 1980 | 3,047 | ? | 30.2 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 7 Jan–11 Feb 1980 | ? | ? | 30.8 | 31.9 | 10.4 | 6.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 5 Nov–16 Dec 1979 | ? | ? | 32.0 | 31.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 3 Sep–14 Oct 1979 | ? | ? | 31.7 | 34.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.6 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 11–18 Jun 1979 | ? | ? | 34.0 | 30.8 | 10.5 | 5.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.2 |
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 68.0 | 34.8 168 |
30.4 121 |
10.8 23 |
6.1 9 |
2.7 8 |
2.1 1 |
1.8 5 |
1.6 7 |
1.0 3 |
0.7 1 |
0.5 1 |
– | – | 4.4 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PNV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 general election | 28 Oct 1982 | — | 5.3 | 37.7 | 3.2 | 20.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | [a] | 2.3 | — | 20.0 | 17.0 |
| Sofemasa/El País[3] | 16–19 Oct 1982 | 18,255 | 4.9 | 38.8 | 4.7 | 18.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | – | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | [a] | 3.0 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 20.0 |
| PSOE[38][39][40] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 1,800 | 5.5 | 34.6 | 2.5 | 12.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 2.3 | 30.1 | 6.3 | 22.2 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[5] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | 3.9 | 29.1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | [a] | 2.4 | 44.8 | 19.6 | |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 1–7 Oct 1982 | 1,163 | 3.5 | 35.4 | 3.0 | 13.4 | – | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 3.2 | 24.6 | 6.0 | 22.0 |
| PSOE[41] | 6 Oct 1982 | ? | 5.0 | 33.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | – | – | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | [a] | 2.0 | 22.0 | – | 22.0 |
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 4.6 | 30.7 | 2.8 | 11.7 | 0.8 | – | – | 1.3 | – | – | – | [a] | 2.5 | 34.2 | 9.6 | 19.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 4.7 | 23.8 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | [a] | 1.3 | 44.8 | 8.7 | 14.8 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 4.1 | 9.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 3.0 | 45.2 | 17.9 | |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 24–30 Sep 1982 | 2,460 | 3.2 | 34.0 | 3.4 | 9.8 | – | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 1.5 | 26.6 | 7.4 | 24.2 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 5–19 Sep 1982 | 3,000 | 6.8 | 33.1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | – | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 39.4 | 25.9 | |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 7.0 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 6.7 | 27.9 | 2.2 | 11.6 | 1.3 | – | – | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 2.8 | 32.9 | 9.8 | 16.3 |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 24–30 Aug 1982 | 2,460 | 5.6 | 33.5 | 3.7 | 7.8 | – | 0.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 27.9 | 6.0 | 25.7 |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[46] | 7 Aug 1982 | ? | 6.7 | 39.2 | 1.7 | 11.2 | – | 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | – | 33.3 | 28.0 | |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[22][47][48] | 6 Aug 1982 | 1,857 | 7.0 | 37.0 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.9 | – | 20.9 | 15.2 | 26.3 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 12.0 | 29.1 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 28.4 | 11.6 | 17.1 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 9.8 | 30.5 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 30.8 | 11.9 | 20.7 |
| CIS[51] | 7 May 1982 | 1,200 | 12.8 | 27.7 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | 1.0 | – | – | 28.1 | 14.3 | 14.9 |
| Emopública/Cambio 16[52] | 24 Apr 1982 | ? | 16.0 | 34.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18.0 |
| CIS[53] | 23–27 Mar 1982 | 1,200 | 12.6 | 24.9 | 3.2 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | – | 1.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 33.1 | 11.8 | 12.3 |
| CIS[54] | 3 Mar 1982 | ? | 13.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS[55] | 23–27 Feb 1982 | 1,200 | 13.0 | 30.1 | 2.5 | 8.2 | 1.6 | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | – | 0.5 | – | – | 27.3 | 12.2 | 17.1 |
| CIS[56] | 1 Jan 1982 | 1,179 | 11.8 | 28.4 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 1.3 | – | – | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 30.6 | 11.7 | 16.6 |
| CIS[57] | 28–30 Nov 1981 | 1,200 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 35.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| CIS[58] | 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 | 1,201 | 11.1 | 28.9 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 32.9 | 10.8 | 17.8 |
| CIS[59] | 9–11 Sep 1981 | 1,193 | 11.6 | 26.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | – | – | 1.9 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 36.2 | 11.9 | 14.6 |
| CIS[60] | 1 Jul 1981 | 1,200 | 13.6 | 26.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 34.9 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| CIS[61] | 1 Jun 1981 | 2,394 | 13.5 | 25.4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | 25.1 | 21.3 | 11.9 |
| CIS[62] | 10 May 1981 | 1,163 | 15.0 | 24.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | – | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 35.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| CIS[63] | 28 Apr–2 May 1981 | 2,394 | 14.9 | 24.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 35.2 | 12.8 | 9.1 |
| CIS[64] | 1 Apr 1981 | 1,197 | 14.8 | 22.9 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 37.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| CIS[65] | 1 Mar 1981 | 1,196 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | 34.6 | 9.5 | 13.7 |
| CIS[66] | 30 Jan 1981 | 1,177 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 44.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| CIS[67] | 1 Jan 1981 | 1,191 | 13.3 | 19.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 37.8 | 15.1 | 6.3 |
| CIS[68] | 1 Dec 1980 | 1,202 | 13.2 | 22.2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | 37.0 | 12.3 | 9.0 |
| INE[69] | 12 Nov 1980 | 3,457 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 |
| CIS[70] | 1 Nov 1980 | 1,200 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 37.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS[71] | 1 Oct 1980 | ? | 15.7 | 16.8 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 39.3 | 12.7 | 1.1 |
| CIS[72] | 1 Sep 1980 | 1,184 | 16.5 | 22.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | – | – | – | – | – | 32.1 | 10.6 | 6.4 |
| CIS[73] | 1 Jul 1980 | 3,457 | 13.4 | 20.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | – | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | – | – | 41.2 | 8.5 | 6.8 |
| CIS[74] | 1 Jun 1980 | 1,191 | 15.1 | 25.3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | 31.9 | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| CIS[75] | 1 Apr 1980 | 1,168 | 16.4 | 18.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 34.3 | 12.4 | 2.4 |
| CIS[76] | 1 Mar 1980 | 1,185 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | – | 0.6 | – | – | 33.7 | 11.1 | 1.4 |
| CIS[77] | 1 Dec 1979 | 1,147 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | 0.5 | – | – | 35.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 |
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 23.4 | 20.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – | – | — | 32.0 | 3.0 |
Victory preference
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 23.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 6.3 | 35.2 | 2.6 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 36.3 | 22.2 |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 22.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 7.0 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 21.0 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 11.8 | 34.5 | 3.3 | 11.0 | – | 3.7 | 35.6 | 22.7 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 9.6 | 37.6 | 1.6 | 12.1 | – | 2.9 | 36.1 | 25.5 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 2.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 52.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 4.4 | 51.8 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 36.7 | 46.3 |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 6.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 47.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 37.0 | 48.0 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 10.0 | 49.5 | 0.3 | 4.4 | – | 0.1 | 35.6 | 39.5 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 7.4 | 46.5 | 0.1 | 3.4 | – | 0.3 | 42.4 | 39.1 |
| CIS[58] | 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 | 1,201 | 14.0 | 40.0 | – | 5.0 | – | – | 41.0 | 26.0 |
Hypothetical scenarios
UCD–AP alliance
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCD[18][19][20] | 4 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 135 |
? 169 |
? 12 |
? 7 |
? |
| Tiempo[24] | 12 Dec 1981 | ? | ? | 32.6 169 |
31.4 126 |
3.9 4 |
– | 1.2 |
Leadership polling
Preferred Prime Minister
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become Prime Minister.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | .jpg)
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|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suárez UCD/CDS |
Calvo- Sotelo UCD |
Lavilla
UCD |
González PSOE |
Tierno PSOE |
Carrillo PCE |
Fraga AP | ||||||
| Alef/Grupo 16[5] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | 8.7 | – | 6.1 | 49.3 | – | 5.7 | 19.2 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 30.1 |
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | – | 2.0 | 15.0 | – | 36.0 | 22.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 6.5 | – | 4.3 | 37.2 | – | 2.7 | 17.1 | – | 32.2 | 20.1 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 11.9 | – | 6.4 | 46.8 | – | 4.3 | 17.9 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 28.9 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | – | 3.0 | 15.0 | – | 36.0 | 19.0 |
| Emopública/Cambio 16[52] | 24 Apr 1982 | ? | 5.6 | 11.3 | – | 39.8 | 3.9 | – | 13.7 | 25.7 | 26.1 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/Cambio 16[78] | 30 Jan 1981 | ? | 26.0 | – | – | 43.0 | – | – | – | 31.0 | 17.0 | |
| ICSA–Gallup[34][35] | 9–16 Jun 1980 | 1,002 | 28.0 | – | – | 46.0 | – | – | – | 26.0 | 18.0 | |
| 46.0 | – | – | – | – | 25.0 | – | 29.0 | 21.0 | ||||
| VSA[37] | 18–22 Mar 1980 | 3,046 | 14.6 | – | – | 21.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 6.7 |
| ICSA–Gallup[34][35] | Sep 1979 | ? | 31.0 | – | – | 41.0 | – | – | – | 28.0 | 10.0 | |
Approval ratings
Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo (UCD) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
Net | |||
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 5–18 Jul 1982 | ? | 21.0 | 48.0 | 31.0 | −27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79][80] | 2–22 Nov 1981 | ? | 25.0 | 46.0 | 29.0 | −21.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 8 Jul–17 Sep 1981 | ? | 29.0 | 39.0 | 32.0 | −10.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6 May–18 Jun 1981 | ? | 39.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | +14.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 11 Apr–21 May 1981 | ? | 38.0 | 23.0 | 39.0 | +15.0 |
| CIS[62] | 10 May 1981 | 1,163 | 36.0 | 25.0 | 39.0 | +11.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[81][82] | 4–14 Apr 1981 | 946 | 41.0 | 15.0 | 44.0 | +26.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[81] | 27 Feb–2 Mar 1981 | ? | 25.0 | 19.0 | 56.0 | +6.0 |
Adolfo Suárez
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Adolfo Suárez (UCD) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
Net | |||
| ICSA–Gallup/Cambio 16[78][81] | 16–30 Jan 1981 | ? | 26.0 | 59.0 | 15.0 | −33.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 3 Nov–14 Dec 1980 | ? | 19.0 | 46.0 | 35.0 | −27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6 Oct–16 Nov 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 46.0 | 31.0 | −23.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6–19 Oct 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 48.0 | 29.0 | −25.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 4 Aug–14 Sep 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 45.0 | 32.0 | −22.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[36][37] | 11–21 Mar 1980 | 3,047 | 35.0 | 37.0 | 28.0 | −2.0 |
Notes
References
- ^ "El PSOE se atribuye 202 diputados" (PDF). Deia (in Spanish). 29 October 1982.
- ^ "Los socialistas ganaron las elecciones". Ideal (in Spanish). 29 October 1982.
- ^ a b "Probable mayoría absoluta del PSOE y confirmación de AP como segunda fuerza parlamentaria de España" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 22 October 1982.
- ^ "El Partido Socialista logrará la mayoría absoluta y Alianza Popular se aproximará a los 100 diputados". El País (in Spanish). 22 October 1982.
- ^ a b c "El PSOE va a gobernar con mayoría absoluta" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 22 October 1982.
- ^ "El PSOE va a gobernar con mayoría absoluta" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 22 October 1982.
- ^ a b c d e f g "La campaña electoral de octubre de 1982: El camino del cambio" (PDF). REIS (in Spanish). 1984.
- ^ ""CDS es una oferta de reforma progresista"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 4 October 1982.
- ^ a b c d e "Baja el PSOE, suben AP y el centro de Suárez" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 8 October 1982.
- ^ "Estabilidad del PSOE y disputa por el centro entre Adolfo Suárez y Landelino Lavilla". El País (in Spanish). 6 October 1982.
- ^ "Verstrynge: UCD y PSOE llegarán a colaborar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 27 September 1982.
- ^ "AP conseguirá un mínimo de ciento veinticinco escaños". ABC (in Spanish). 28 September 1982.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "De celebrarse ahora elecciones generates, el PSOE, con el 42,3% de los votos, vería en peligro su mayoría absoluta". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 17 April 1984.
- ^ "Temor del centro-derecha a los 200 escaños del PSOE". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 22 September 1982.
- ^ "Temor del centro-derecha a los 200 escaños del PSOE". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 22 September 1982.
- ^ "Los próximos comicios, proyección de las elecciones andaluzas". El País (in Spanish). 9 September 1982.
- ^ a b "Más encuestas con repartos de escaños que se contradicen". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 7 September 1982.
- ^ a b "El PSOE obtendrá mayoría absoluta si UCD no hace coalición con AP". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 4 September 1982.
- ^ a b "El PSOE obtendrá mayoría absoluta si UCD no hace coalición con AP". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 4 September 1982.
- ^ a b "UCD necesita ir con AP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 4 September 1982.
- ^ "El 80% del antiguo electorado de UCD no tiene intención de repetir su voto en 1982". El País (in Spanish). 14 September 1982.
- ^ a b "El PSOE tendrá el 42 por ciento de los votos en las próximas elecciones". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 6 August 1982.
- ^ "Según un sondeo de AP, las próximas elecciones generales se centrarán entre Felipe González y Manuel Fraga". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 16 July 1982.
- ^ a b "Hipótesis sobre los apoyos de un gobierno socialista". Leviatán (in Spanish). March 1982.
- ^ "La campaña del miedo: El papel de ABC en las elecciones de octubre de 1982". Espacio, Tiempo y Forma (in Spanish). 2004.
- ^ "Alianza Popular, volcada en Galicia, según Verstrynge". El País (in Spanish). 6 October 1981.
- ^ "El PSOE vencería y hundiría a UCD en elecciones anticipadas". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 29 May 1981.
- ^ "El PSOE "barrería" en unas elecciones generales". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 28 May 1981.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "El PSOE hubiera "destrozado" a UCD" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 7 April 1981.
- ^ "El último sondeo de Gallup da al PSOE una ventaja de 10 puntos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 7 April 1981.
- ^ "Los socialistas quedarían muy por delante de UCD si hubiera ahora elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 23 December 1980.
- ^ "Avance de los socialistas y retroceso de UCD en las preferencias electorales". El País (in Spanish). 3 August 1980.
- ^ "Los socialistas quedarían muy por delante de UCD si hubiera ahora elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 3 August 1980.
- ^ a b c "Felipe vencería a Suárez en unas elecciones presidenciales". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 July 1980.
- ^ a b c "Disminuye la popularidad de Suárez y aumenta la de Felipe González". El País (in Spanish). 15 July 1980.
- ^ a b "Desciende la popularidad de Adolfo Suárez". El País (in Spanish). 27 April 1980.
- ^ a b c "El presidente atraviesa su peor crisis de imagen" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 28 April 1980.
- ^ "El golpismo no influirá en los resultados". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 October 1982.
- ^ ""UCD agoniza y el PCE es un cadáver"" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 19 October 1982.
- ^ "La intentona golpista no ha cambiado las expectativas electorales, según el PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 19 October 1982.
- ^ "Más de mil millones en propaganda socialista". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 October 1982.
- ^ a b c d "Barómetro octubre, 1982 (Estudio nº 1.325)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 October 1982.
- ^ a b c d "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1982 (III) (Septiembre-octubre de 1982. Estudio CIS 1.324)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 October 1982.
- ^ a b c "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1982 (I) (Estudio 1.321. 6 de septiembre de 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 6 September 1982.
- ^ a b c d "Barómetro septiembre 1982 (Estudio 1323)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 September 1982.
- ^ "El socialismo triunfa en los sondeos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 7 August 1982.
- ^ "Todos los grandes partidos políticos han comenzado a poner a punto sus maquinarias para las elecciones anticipadas". El País (in Spanish). 7 August 1982.
- ^ "La Prensa norteamericana dice que Suárez es el desafío para Calvo-Sotelo". ABC (in Spanish). 29 August 1982.
- ^ a b c "Barómetro de julio 1982 (Estudio nº 1320. Julio 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 July 1982.
- ^ a b c "Estudio nº 1.319 (Junio 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 June 1982.
- ^ "Barómetro abril 1982 (Estudio 1309. 7 de mayo de 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 1982.
- ^ a b "Según una encuesta, el PSOE barrerá en las próximas elecciones". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 24 April 1982.
- ^ "Barómetro Marzo 1982 (Estudio nº 1.303)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 27 March 1982.
- ^ "Sondeo sobre audiencia y aceptación de la actuación del Presidente del Gobierno e T.V.E. el sábado 27 de febrero (Estudio 1306. 3 de marzo de 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 3 March 1982.
- ^ "Barómetro nº 27 (Estudio 1300. Febrero 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 27 February 1982.
- ^ "Barómetro enero 1982 (Estudio nº 1.299. Enero 1982)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1982.
- ^ "Barómetro noviembre 1981 (Estudio nº 1.296)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1981.
- ^ a b "Barómetro de Opinión Pública (Estudio 1291. Noviembre 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 November 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública (Estudio 1285. Septiembre 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 September 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro de julio (Estudio nº 1.283. Julio 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 1981.
- ^ "Las clases medias (Estudio nº 1.281. Junio 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 June 1981.
- ^ a b "Barómetro nº 21 (Mayo 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 May 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro abril (Estudio nº 1.279. Abril 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 2 May 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública (Estudio 1277. Abril de 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 April 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro de febrero (Estudio nº 1.274. Febrero 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 March 1981.
- ^ "Dimisión del Presidente Don Adolfo Suárez (Estudio nº 1.265. Enero 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 30 January 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro 1. Enero 1981 (Estudio 1264)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1981.
- ^ "Barómetro de diciembre 1980 (Estudio nº 1.258. Diciembre 1980)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1980.
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría ahora las elecciones generales" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 13 November 1980.
- ^ "Barómetro noviembre, 1980 (Estudio nº 1.256)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 November 1980.
- ^ "Estudio CIS 1.250. (Octubre, 1980)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 October 1980.
- ^ "Sondeo sobre el debate de la moción de censura (Septiembre 1980)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 September 1980.
- ^ "Cultura política (I) (Estudio CIS 1237. Junio 1980)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 1980.
- ^ "Barómetro junio, 1980 (Estudio nº 1.236)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 June 1980.
- ^ "Barómetro abril, 1980 (Estudio nº 1.229)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 April 1980.
- ^ "Barómetro de marzo (Estudio nº 1.224. Marzo 1980)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 March 1980.
- ^ "Barómetro diciembre 1979 (Estudio 1205)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1979.
- ^ a b "Sólo uno de cada cuatro españoles confiaba en Suárez" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 31 January 1981.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "El presidente Felipe González, aprobado por el 54% de la población española, según un sondeo Gallup para "Diario de Navarra"". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 12 August 1984.
- ^ "-El 54% de encuestados por Gallup aprueba la gestión del presidente Felipe González". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 17 March 1985.
- ^ a b c "La popularidad del Presidente, en alza" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 16 May 1981.
- ^ "Aumenta la popularidad de Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo". El País (in Spanish). 17 May 1981.
