Prediction

Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
For other uses, see Prediction (disambiguation).
"predict" redirects here. For other uses, see predict (disambiguation).
The Old Farmer's Almanac
is famous in the US for its (not necessarily accurate) long-range weather predictions.

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dictum, "something said"[1]) or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between "prediction" and "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.

Future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments.

Opinion

In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion.

A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.[2]

The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way. This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's cognitive experiences forming an intuitive "probability curve."

Statistics

In

predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[3][failed verification] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed on cross-sectional data
.

Statistical techniques used for prediction include

autoregressive moving average models and vector autoregression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known as predictive analytics.[4]

In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as

Extended Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply.[5]

To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be predicted, called the

independent variables or explanatory variables. A functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the parameters of the function are estimated from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize is some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable.[6]

An unbiased performance estimate of a model can be obtained on

hold-out test sets. The predictions can visually be compared to the ground truth in a parity plot
.

Science

NASA's 2004 predictions of the solar cycle, which were inaccurate (predicting that solar cycle 24 would start in 2007 and be larger than cycle 23), and the refined predictions in 2012, showing it started in 2010 and is very small

In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would be observed under specific conditions; for example, according to theories of gravity, if an apple fell from a tree it would be seen to move towards the center of the Earth with a specified and constant acceleration. The scientific method is built on testing statements that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.

A

testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (protoscience or nescience
) until testable predictions can be made.

quantum physics
.

In microprocessors, branch prediction permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions.

In

failure mechanism
causing the failure.

Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as

pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology.[7] For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of solar cycles
, but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right).

In materials engineering it is also possible to predict the life time of a material with a mathematical model.[8]

In

biomarkers can be used to predict patient outcomes in response to various treatment or the probability of a clinical event.[9]

Hypothesis

Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted.

New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting the structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge.

special theory of relativity
was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference.

Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, as one of the first tests of general relativity, the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.

Medicine and healthcare

Predictive medicine

This section is an excerpt from Predictive medicine.[edit]

morbidity).[11]

While different prediction methodologies exist, such as

full genome sequencing) allows for the estimation of disease risk years to decades before any disease even exists, or even whether a healthy fetus
is at higher risk for developing a disease in adolescence or adulthood. Individuals who are more susceptible to disease in the future can be offered lifestyle advice or medication with the aim of preventing the predicted illness.

Current genetic testing guidelines supported by the health care professionals discourage purely predictive genetic testing of minors until they are competent to understand the relevancy of genetic screening so as to allow them to participate in the decision about whether or not it is appropriate for them.
Genetic screening
of newborns and children in the field of predictive medicine is deemed appropriate if there is a compelling clinical reason to do so, such as the availability of prevention or treatment as a child that would prevent future disease.

Prognosis

This section is an excerpt from Prognosis.[edit]

signs and symptoms will improve or worsen (and how quickly) or remain stable over time; expectations of quality of life, such as the ability to carry out daily activities; the potential for complications and associated health issues; and the likelihood of survival (including life expectancy).[13][14] A prognosis is made on the basis of the normal course of the diagnosed disease, the individual's physical and mental condition, the available treatments, and additional factors.[14] A complete prognosis includes the expected duration, function, and description of the course of the disease, such as progressive decline, intermittent crisis, or sudden, unpredictable crisis.[15]

When applied to large statistical populations, prognostic estimates can be very accurate: for example the statement "45% of patients with severe septic shock will die within 28 days" can be made with some confidence, because previous research found that this proportion of patients died. This statistical information does not apply to the prognosis for each individual patient, because patient-specific factors can substantially change the expected course of the disease: additional information is needed to determine whether a patient belongs to the 45% who will die, or to the 55% who survive.[16]

Clinical prediction rules

This section is an excerpt from Clinical prediction rule.[edit]

A

symptoms, and other findings to estimate the probability of a specific disease or clinical outcome.[17]

Physicians have difficulty in estimated risks of diseases; frequently erring towards overestimation,[18] perhaps due to cognitive biases such as base rate fallacy in which the risk of an adverse outcome is exaggerated.

Finance

Main articles:
Financial forecasting and Stock market prediction
Prediction market

Mathematical models of

stock market boom, or a stock market crash. In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad economic trends tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions.[citation needed
]

Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.

An

life table (which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project life expectancy
.

Sports

Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years. Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or

Jimmy the Greek
, were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge. Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field.

Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted. Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models. Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve the motivation of a team. Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote "Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won't put my money on it".[19] These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in "look ahead" games etc. As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact the way the line is set.

The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern

Brian Burke, a former Navy fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games.[20] Ken Pomeroy is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system. Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems. Dare wrote "the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are a direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error".[21]
Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent.

Other more advance models include those based on Bayesian networks, which are causal probabilistic models commonly used for risk analysis and decision support. Based on this kind of mathematical modelling, Constantinou et al.,[22][23] have developed models for predicting the outcome of association football matches.[24] What makes these models interesting is that, apart from taking into consideration relevant historical data, they also incorporate all these vague subjective factors, like availability of key players, team fatigue, team motivation and so on. They provide the user with the ability to include their best guesses about things that there are no hard facts available. This additional information is then combined with historical facts to provide a revised prediction for future match outcomes. The initial results based on these modelling practices are encouraging since they have demonstrated consistent profitability against published market odds.

Nowadays sport betting is a huge business; there are many websites (systems) alongside betting sites, which give tips or predictions for future games.[25] Some of these prediction websites (tipsters) are based on human predictions, but others on computer software sometimes called prediction robots or bots. Prediction bots can use different amount of data and algorithms and because of that their accuracy may vary.

These days, with the development of artificial intelligence, it has become possible to create more consistent predictions using statistics. Especially in the field of sports competitions, the impact of artificial intelligence has created a noticeable consistency rate. On the science of AI soccer predictions, an initiative called soccerseer.com, one of the most successful systems in this sense, manages to predict the results of football competitions with up to 75% accuracy with artificial intelligence.

Social science

Prediction in the non-economic social sciences differs from the natural sciences and includes multiple alternative methods such as trend projection, forecasting, scenario-building and Delphi surveys. The oil company Shell is particularly well known for its scenario-building activities.[citation needed]

One reason for the peculiarity of societal prediction is that in the social sciences, "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process".[26] As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a forecast that a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue.[26]

Approval ratings
(percentages) for the 2004 Canadian federal election

In

Prediction games
have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.

Prophecy

Main article: Prophecy

Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using

fortune telling, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination
, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific experiments.

In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The book of Revelation, in the New Testament, thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum.

Divination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual.[27] It is an integral part of witchcraft and has been used in various forms for thousands of years. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens, or through alleged contact with a supernatural agency, most often described as an angel or a god though viewed by Christians and Jews as a fallen angel or demon.[28]

Fiction

Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means. Science fiction of the past predicted various modern technologies.

In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through

magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel
, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.

In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, The Minority Report, which was turned into a film by Steven Spielberg in 2002.

In the

psychohistory
founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.

In

Golden Path
" out of the trap.

In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.

Poetry

For the ancients, prediction, prophesy, and poetry were often intertwined.[29] Prophecies were given in verse, and a word for poet in Latin is “vates” or prophet.[29] Both poets and prophets claimed to be inspired by forces outside themselves. In contemporary cultures, theological revelation and poetry are typically seen as distinct and often even as opposed to each other. Yet the two still are often understood together as symbiotic in their origins, aims, and purposes.[30]

See also

  • Expectation
     – Anticipation that a future event or consequence is likely
  • Forecasting – Making predictions based on available data
  • Futures studies – Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures
  • Omen – Portent, harbinger
  • Oracle – Provider of prophecies or insights
  • Predictability – Degree to which a correct prediction of a system's state can be made
  • Prediction market – Platforms for betting on events
  • Predictive modelling – Form of modelling that uses statistics to predict outcomes
  • Prognosis – Medical term for the likely development of a disease
  • Prognostics – prediction of the time at which a system or a component will malfunction
  • Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future
  • Regression analysis – Set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships among variables
  • Thought experiment – Hypothetical situation
  • Trend estimation
     – Statistical technique to aid interpretation of data

Footnotes

  1. ^ "predict". Oxford English Dictionary (Online ed.). Oxford University Press. (Subscription or participating institution membership required.)
  2. ISBN 978-1-59420-411-1
    .
  3. ISBN 978-0-521-68567-2
    .
  4. ISBN 978-1-118-35685-2
    .
  5. S2CID 9614092
    .
  6. ISBN 978-1-4522-0566-3
    .
  7. doi:10.1093/biosci/biad083
    .
  8. S2CID 139437088
    .
  9. PMID 29405771
  10. PMID 19029928
  11. ^ "Predictive medicine: Genes indicate diseases before symptoms do". Archived from the original on 2010-12-27. Retrieved 2009-02-24.
  12. PMID 19277061
    .
  13. ^ "What is the prognosis of a genetic condition?". Genetics Home Reference. NIH: U.S. National Library of Medicine. Retrieved 2018-05-20.
  14. ^
    Nature Publishing Group
    . Retrieved 20 May 2018.
  15. PMID 19680521
    .
  16. PMID 23356812
  17. PMID 10872017
    .
  18. S2CID 25470460
    .
  19. ISBN 978-1-5804-2174-4
    .
  20. ^ Burke, Brian (2008). "NFL Win Prediction Methodology".
  21. ^ Dare, William H (2006). Risk Return and Gambling Market Efficiency (PDF). Oklahoma City, United States: Oklahoma State University. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-07-19. Retrieved 2012-11-05.
  22. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2012.07.008
    .
  23. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2013.05.008
    .
  24. ^ Patel, Mahesh (24 Jan 2023). "Football prediction". Lootrs. Retrieved 24 Jan 2023.
  25. ^ "Soccer picks and predictions". Soccer Punt.
  26. ^
    ISSN 2214-6296
    .
  27. ^ Peek, P.M. African Divination Systems: Ways of Knowing. page 2. Indiana University Press. 1991.
  28. ^ Definition of divination
  29. ^
    Stallings, A. E. (2020-08-22). "Poetry and Prophecy"
    . Poetry Foundation. Retrieved 2020-08-22.
  30. ISBN 9780199340378
    . Retrieved 2020-08-22.

Further reading
Wikiquote has quotations related to Prediction.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Prediction&oldid=1297226392"