Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction
Taiwan pursued a number of weapons of mass destruction programs from 1949 to the late 1980s. The final secret nuclear weapons program was shut down in the late 1980s under US pressure after completing all stages of weapons development besides final assembly and testing; they lacked an effective delivery mechanism and would have needed to further miniaturize any weapon before it could be effectively used in combat. Currently, there is no evidence of Taiwan possessing any chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.[1][2] However, nuclear weapons from the United States were deployed to Taiwan during a period of heightened regional tensions with China beginning with the First Taiwan Strait Crisis and ending in the 1970s.[3][4][5]
Nuclear weapons
NPT party | Formerly |
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During the
Research program
The development of nuclear weapons by Taiwan has been a contentious issue, as it had been triggered by the
In 1967, a secret nuclear weapons program began under the auspices of the
During the 1970s, Taiwan had an active program to produce
The leaders of the program needed very high assurance in the functioning and reliability of any nuclear device they designed, but without the ability to conduct a full-scale nuclear weapons test. Besides the need to keep the program covert, an underground nuclear test was not feasible on such a small and densely populated island such as Taiwan. Therefore the program used specialised computer software to simulate nuclear weapon explosions, the code of which was constantly upgraded and improved as more knowledge was acquired via experiments or by clandestine information gathering. To circumvent detection by foreign intelligence agencies while developing and refining necessary skills, Taiwan developed many dual-use activities, such as "anti-tank projectile" experiments. These involved uranium metal plates being slammed together at a tremendous velocity under controlled conditions, and high-speed diagnostic equipment monitoring the impact while recording temperature and pressure data, which was then fed back into the computer simulation software to improve the accuracy of how a nuclear device would behave during and after detonation.[7]
These tests also allowed the testing of the reliability of the high explosives to be used in warheads and the detonating systems used to ensure the simultaneous triggering of many explosive panels on any implosion type designs. As well as enabling relevant data to be gathered and analyzed, these activities allowed Taiwanese technicians to practice daily the skills needed to produce actual warheads (such as the tooling of radioactive metals into individual components) if the order was ever given to begin full scale production of nuclear weapons.[7]
The secret nuclear weapon program was revealed after the 1987 Lieyu massacre,[13][14] when Colonel Chang Hsien-yi Deputy Director of Nuclear Research at INER,[15] who was secretly working for the CIA, defected to the U.S. in December 1987 and produced a cache of incriminating documents.[16] General Hau Pei-tsun claimed that scientists in Taiwan had already produced a controlled nuclear reaction. Under pressure from the U.S., the program was halted. A study into the secret program concluded that at the time of Chang's defection, Taiwan was one or two years away from being able to complete a deliverable weapon.[1] Chang claims that Madame Chiang Kai Shek and military officials loyal to her had expedited the development of nuclear weapons and even set up a parallel chain of command to further their agenda.[15] In 1987 the warhead design had a diameter of 60–70 cm with casing and a weight of 900 kg meaning that further miniaturization would have been needed to optimize the weapon for delivery.[7]
Delivery systems
The Sky Horse ballistic missile system was developed in the late 1970s and early 1980s before a combination of pressure from American President Ronald Reagan and internal competition from anti-ballistic missile development programs ended the program in 1982. Faced with an inability to field their desired delivery system planners turned to alternatives.[7]
The secondary delivery vehicle was the
Current status
Since the end of the nuclear weapons program the “Nuclear Card” has played an important part in Taiwan's relationship with both the United States and China.[17]
During the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, then President of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui, proposed to reactivate the program, but toned down the rhetoric a few days later, saying that although Taiwan was nuclear latent, it "will definitely not" produce nuclear weapons.[18]
There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium.[18] Taiwan's nuclear power plants use imported enriched uranium and are subject to IAEA inspections.[7]
Taiwan theoretically has the potential to develop nuclear weapons from domestic monazite reserves, and this potential was explored by the military in 1951–1952. However, the monazite's thorium content was deemed too low to justify recovering, and the military turned to friendly foreign sources instead.[19]
In light of rising tensions in
Chemical and biological weapons
During the Japanese colonial period a chemical weapons factory was in operation in North Taiwan; the Nationalists took possession of this facility following the conclusion of World War II and are believed to have expanded the facility.[25]
The U.S. Congress was informed in 1989 that Taiwan could have acquired offensive chemical weapons capability, including stockpiles of sarin. The alleged facilities include Tsishan and Kuanhsi. Taiwanese authorities acknowledged only the existence of a defensive research program.[26]
In 1997 the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that Taiwan did not possess biological weapons but had "shown signs of conducting biological research of an applied military nature.”[25]
There have been rumors of ongoing offensive and defensive Taiwanese biological and chemical weapons programs but no conclusive evidence of development or deployment has ever been presented.[27]
2023 Biological weapons allegations
In July 2023, Taiwan's United Daily News (UDN) reported allegations of a meeting between U.S. and Taiwanese officials in the South China Sea in 2022 to discuss the creation of a bioweapon lab, based on a purported internal document. U.S. and Taiwanese authorities denied this allegation, which received widespread coverage in Chinese media. An in-depth analysis by Radio Free Asia's Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) found inconsistencies in the document's language and format, suggesting it was not Taiwanese and instead was written in mainland China. This apparent disinformation campaign to promote false allegations of bioweapon development was spread and amplified by misleading narratives and false information from pro-China commentators in Taiwan and Chinese media.[28][29][30][31]
Ratification of international treaties
The
See also
- Japan and weapons of mass destruction
- China and weapons of mass destruction
- History of the Republic of China
- Military of the Republic of China
- List of states with nuclear weapons
- Timeline of the Republic of China's nuclear program
References
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- ^ National Intelligence Officer for Nuclear Proliferation (25 January 1980). The 22 September 1979 Event (PDF). National Security Council/National Foreign Intelligence Board/Interagency Intelligence Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation (Interagency intelligence memorandum). Washington, D.C.: United States Intelligence Community/United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. p. 5. MORI DocID: 1108245. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 February 2021 – via National Security Archive.
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{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b Sui, Cindy (18 May 2017). Harding, James (ed.). "The man who helped prevent a nuclear crisis". BBC News. BBC. Archived from the original on 5 April 2021.
- ^ Chen Yi-shen (2017-01-08). "Chang Hsien-yi: I didn't betray Taiwan; I betrayed Hau Pei-tsun". Storm Media Group. Retrieved 2017-01-08.
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- ^ Liao, George (5 June 2019). "Business Weekly: A reserve of rare earth minerals keeps Taiwan's hope of developing nuclear weapons alive". Taiwan News. Archived from the original on 5 June 2019.
- ^ "A nuclear Taiwan is too terrifying to contemplate". South China Morning Post. 2022-01-04. Retrieved 2022-09-20.
- ^ "Put Nukes on Taiwan". Hoover Institution. Retrieved 2022-09-20.
- ^ Jacoby, Jeff. "To avoid Ukraine's fate, Taiwan needs nuclear missiles—now". The Boston Globe. Retrieved 2022-09-20.
- ^ Stricker, Bradley Bowman, Andrea. "Arm Taiwan—but Skip the Nukes". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2022-09-20.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Spencer, David (2019-04-05). "Taiwan has other deterrence options besides costly and controversial nuclear weapons". Taiwan News. Retrieved 2022-09-20.
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- ^ Officials link biological weapons story to China, Taipei Times, 13 July 2023.
- ^ Taiwan’s new biosafety lab to counter – not develop – bioweapons, defence ministry says, SCMP, 15 July 2023.
- ^ Did the US ask Taiwan to develop a bioweapon targeting Chinese DNA?, Radio Free Asia, 1 August 2023.
- ^ China is flooding Taiwan with disinformation, The Economist, 26 September 2023.
- ^ "China: Accession to Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)". United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. New York City, New York, United States: United Nations. 17 March 1992.
- ^ "Spreadsheet" (PDF). www.nti.org.