2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
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  Grassley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Judge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the
local elections
.
Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]
Background
Republican
in 2010
, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.
Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator[4][5]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley[9]
- Steve King, U.S. Representative[10]
- Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative[10]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) | 90,089 | 98.36% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,500 | 1.64% | |
| Total votes | 91,589 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- 2010[5]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[12]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[13][14][15]
- in 2010[16]
Withdrawn
- Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative[17][18]
Declined
- 2012[9]
- Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa[10]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[9][20]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[10][21]
- Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the 2006[5]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Judge |
Rob Hogg |
Bob Krause |
Tom Fiegen |
None/Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register | May 30 – June 2, 2016 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 15% |
| KBUR-AM 1490 | May 31 – June 1, 2016 | 1,361 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% |
Results
Fiegen—30–40%
Hogg—60–70%
Hogg—50–60%
Hogg—40–50%
Hogg—30–40%
Judge—80–90%
Judge—70–80%
Judge—60–70%
Judge—50–60%
Judge—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 46,322 | 47.62% | |
| Democratic | Rob Hogg | 37,801 | 38.86% | |
| Democratic | Tom Fiegen | 6,573 | 6.76% | |
| Democratic | Bob Krause | 6,425 | 6.60% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 154 | 0.16% | |
| Total votes | 97,275 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[24]
|
Likely R | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]
|
Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[26] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[27] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[28]
|
Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Debates
| Dates | Location | Grassley | Judge | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2016 | Sioux City, Iowa | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,781 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,598 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer | November 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 60% | 32% | 4% | 5% |
| Loras College Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 1,469 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,226 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 867 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 984 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | October 20–26, 2016 | 791 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,135 | ± 0.5% | 56% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 523 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 917 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer | October 3–6, 2016 | 642 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 2% | 6% |
| Loras College | September 20–22, 2016 | 491 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 37% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 13–21, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 43% | — | 2% |
| Monmouth University | September 12–14, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 39% | 2% | 3% |
| RABA Research Archived September 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 6–8, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Emerson College | Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 30–31, 2016 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov | August 17–19, 2016 | 987 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 9–16, 2016 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Suffolk University | August 8–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 3–7, 2016 | 899 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov | July 13–15, 2016 | 998 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Monmouth University | July 8–11, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–10, 2016 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| Loras College Archived July 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | June 24–28, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 897 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 9–13, 2016 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Rob Hogg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Rob Hogg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
 | This article's use of external links may not follow Wikipedia's policies or guidelines. (August 2016) |
- with Tom Fiegen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Fiegen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 53% | 30% | 17% |
- with Bob Krause
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Bob Krause (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
- with Tom Vilsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (incumbent) | 926,007 | 60.09% | -4.26% | |
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 549,460 | 35.66% | +2.36% | |
| Libertarian | Charles Aldrich | 41,794 | 2.71% | +0.44% | |
Independent
|
Jim Hennager | 17,649 | 1.15% | N/A | |
Independent
|
Michael Luick-Thrams | 4,441 | 0.29% | N/A | |
n/a
|
Write-ins | 1,685 | 0.11% | +0.03% | |
| Total votes | 1,541,036 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
References
- ^ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
- ^ Miller, Stephen. "Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
- ^ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
- ^ a b Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- ^ a b c Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
- ^ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
- ^ a b c d Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
- ^ a b c d Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- ^ a b "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
- Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
- ^ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- ^ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
- ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- ^ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
- The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
- ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- ^ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
- ^ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
- ^ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)