2016 United States Senate election in Utah
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Lee: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Snow: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Utah |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the
The primaries took place on June 28.
Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee won re-election to a second term in office.[2]
Republican primary
It was thought that Lee, a
Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.
One possible challenger to Lee was former
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Lane Beattie, president and CEO of the Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce and former president of the Utah State Senate[6]
- A. Scott Anderson, president and CEO of Zions Bank[13]
- Jason Chaffetz, U.S. Representative[6][14]
- Spencer Cox, Lieutenant Governor of Utah[14][15]
- Alex Dunn, president of Vivint[16][17]
- Kirk Jowers, director of the University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics[2][18]
- Aaron Osmond, state senator[14][20]
- Sean Reyes, Attorney General of Utah[14][21]
- Josh Romney, real estate developer and son of Mitt Romney[22]
- Chris Stewart, U.S. Representative[14]
- Thomas Wright, former chairman of the Utah Republican Party[3][4][14][19]
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Organizations
Democratic primary
Candidates
Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate, filing on August 10.[27][28] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Jade Tuan Quoc Vo, and Misty K. Snow. Snow filed on March 3.[29] Oliver withdrew before the state convention.[29] Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[30]
Swinton faced criticism at the April 23 state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life,[30] a criticism based primarily on Swinton's September 26 op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[31] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.[30]
After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination.[30] As a result, the two faced off in a June 28 primary, which Snow won.[32]
Declared
Eliminated at Convention
- Jade Tuan Quoc Vo[30]
Withdrawn
- Craig Oliver[34]
Declined
- Jim Matheson, former U.S. Representative[3][14][33]
- Ben McAdams, Mayor of Salt Lake County and former state senator[35][36]
- running for UT-04)[37]
Polling
A Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com showed Snow leading with Democratic voters 33% to Swinton's 20%, as well as with independent voters, 23% to Swinton's 10%. The majority of the voters that were surveyed were undecided. The survey was administered from May 2–10, 2016 to 588 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.04%.[38]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Misty K. Snow | 28,928 | 59.40% | |
Democratic | Jonathan Swinton | 19,774 | 40.60% | |
Total votes | 48,702 | 100.00% |
Third Party and Independent Candidates
General election
Debates
Dates | Location | Lee | Snow | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 12, 2016 | Provo, Utah | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[41]
|
Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42]
|
Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report[43] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos[44] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[45]
|
Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Misty Snow (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,479 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 36% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,428 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 36% | — | 4% |
CBS News/YouGov | November 3–5, 2016 | 762 | ± 4.9% | 69% | 23% | 2% | 6% |
Y2 Analytics (R-Utah Republican Party) | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 62% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,327 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 35% | — | 4% |
Monmouth University | October 30–November 2, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 61% | 28% | 5% | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,247 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 35% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,057 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 34% | — | 5% |
HeatStreet/Rasmussen | October 29–31, 2016 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 59% | 27% | 5% | 7% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,078 | ± 4.6% | 62% | 34% | — | 4% |
HeatStreet/Rasmussen | October 14–16, 2016 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 25% | 8% | 10% |
Monmouth University | October 10–12, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 60% | 31% | 3% | 6% |
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | September 1–9, 2016 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 60% | 23% | 7% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling | August 19–21, 2016 | 1,018 | ± 3.1% | 51% | 21% | 8% | 20% |
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | July 18–August 4, 2016 | 858 | ± 3.3% | 57% | 22% | 9% | 12% |
SurveyUSA | June 6–8, 2016 | 1,238 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 37% | 4% | 8% |
- with Jonathan Swinton
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Jonathan Swinton (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | June 6–8, 2016 | 1,238 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 39% | 3% | 7% |
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | March 23–April 5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 28% | — | 18% |
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | September 8–17, 2015 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 25% | 4% | 17% |
- with Jim Matheson
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Jim Matheson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 19–21, 2016 | 1,018 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 37% | 5% | 14% |
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | March 30–April 7, 2015 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | — | 10% |
- with Doug Owens
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Doug Owens (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | May 4–12, 2015 | 803 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 36% | — | 10% |
- Open primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Jim Matheson (D) |
Ben McAdams (D) |
Doug Owens (D) |
Josh Romney (R) |
Thomas Wright (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | March 30–April 7, 2015 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 20% | 2% | 12% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Lee (incumbent) | 760,241 | 68.15% | +6.59% | |
Democratic | Misty Snow | 301,860 | 27.06% | -5.71% | |
Independent American | Stoney Fonua | 27,340 | 2.45% | N/A | |
Independent
|
Bill Barron | 26,167 | 2.34% | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,115,608 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
References
- ^ Nelson, Louis (June 29, 2016). "Two transgender candidates named 'Misty' win primaries". Politico. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
- ^ a b c Bob Bernick (April 26, 2014). "GOP Delegates Give Rousing Reception to Sen. Mike Lee". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
- ^ Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the originalon October 10, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
- ^ a b c Philip Rucker (October 22, 2013). "In Utah, tea party favorite Sen. Lee faces GOP backlash over government shutdown". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
- ^ Quin Monson (October 9, 2013). "Senator Lee and the Shutdown". Utah Data Points. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
- ^ a b c Manu Raju (December 22, 2014). "Tea partier braces for primary challenge from the establishment". Politico. Retrieved December 22, 2014.
- ^ MATT CANHAM (September 29, 2014). "Poll shows rebound in Utah's Sen. Mike Lee's approval rating". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f g Robert Gehrke (December 11, 2014). "Mike Lee could be vulnerable if Count My Vote changes stick". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
- ^ a b Bob Bernick (December 7, 2012). "Bob Bernick's Notebook - Could Republicans Challenge Lee From His Left?". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b Bob Bernick (June 9, 2014). "A 2016 Leavitt Campaign Not Likely". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
- ^ a b Lisa Riley Roche (February 16, 2015). "Huntsman could run against Lee in 2016 Senate race, Republicans say". KSL.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ a b Lisa Riley Roche (February 17, 2015). "Huntsman: I won't challenge Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
- ^ a b Canham, Matt (March 11, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's re-election backed by Jon Huntsman Jr., Zions' Scott Anderson". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f g Abby Livingston (April 2, 2014). "Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
- ^ Bernick, Bob (January 21, 2015). "Poll: Herbert's Approval Ratings Remain High; Lt. Gov. Cox Relatively Unknown". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
- ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 25, 2015). "Former Romney finance director courting challenger to Sen. Mike Lee". KSL-TV. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
- ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 28, 2015). "Provo businessman declines push to run against Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved April 29, 2015.
- ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 16, 2015). "Kirk Jowers leaves U.'s Hinckley Institute for job in private sector". KSL-TV. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
- ^ a b Canham, Matt (April 12, 2015). "Mike Lee could be a lock for re-election to Senate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
- ^ Jacobsen, Morgan (November 24, 2015). "Newly selected UCAT president declines position, accepts counteroffer". KSL. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
- ^ "Sean Reyes takes oath of office as Utah's top lawman". Daily Herald. January 5, 2015. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
- ^ Lisa Riley Roche (April 21, 2015). "Josh Romney: I won't run against Sen. Mike Lee, but another Republican should". Deseret News.
- ^ "Former GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina endorses Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. April 13, 2016.
- ^ "American Conservative Union Endorses Mike Lee". October 23, 2016.
- ^ David Sherfinski (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
- ^ "U.S. Senate Endorsements". Senate Conservatives Fund. Archived from the original on May 13, 2015. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
- ^ Nelson, Bob (August 17, 2015). "1st in Run Against Senator Lee is a Washington Outsider and Democrat". kuer.org. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ "Details for Candidate ID : S6UT00238". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 3, 2016.
- ^ a b c "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e Tribune, Matt Canham The Salt Lake. "Weinholtz wins Dem nomination in Utah governor's race, says wife under investigation for pot possession". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ Swinton, Jonathan. "Op-ed: Shutting down the government is no way to lead". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ Leonard, Wendy (April 23, 2016). "Utah Dems nominate Weinholtz to run for governor". DeseretNews.com. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ a b Canham, Matt (August 17, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's first challenger is marriage therapist Jonathan Swinton, an untested Democrat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
- ^ "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
- ^ Riley Roche, Lisa (April 8, 2015). "Poll: Josh Romney would be a tough opponent for Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
- ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (July 21, 2015). "Doug Owens announces another run for congress". KSL News. Retrieved July 21, 2015.
- ^ Schott, Bryan (May 13, 2016). "Poll: Most Voters Undecided Between Snow and Swinton". utahpolicy.com. Retrieved May 16, 2016.
- ^ "Utah Election Official Results". Utah Secretary of State. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
- ^ a b Woodruff, Daniel (August 11, 2016). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee on track to win second term, new poll shows". KUTV. Retrieved September 2, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "Utah Election Official Results" (PDF). Utah Secretary of State. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
External links
- Official campaign websites