Hubbert peak theory
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.
Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates, and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.
The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.[1][2] The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
Hubbert's peak
"Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production in a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.
Hubbert's peak was thought to have been achieved in the United States contiguous 48 states (that is, excluding Alaska and Hawaii) in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at 10.2 million barrels (1.62×10 6 m3) per day in 1970 and then declined over the subsequent 35 years in a pattern that closely followed the one predicated by Hubbert in the mid-1950s. However, beginning in the late 20th century, advances in extraction technology, particularly those that led to the extraction of
Hubbert's theory
Hubbert curve
In 1956, Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the
for estimating future production using past observed discoveries.Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (
The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been produced. It also has a single peak.
Given past oil discovery and production data, a Hubbert curve that attempts to approximate past discovery data may be constructed and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. Cavallo[8] defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of:
where max is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), the cumulative production, and and are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is:
so now the cumulative production reaches the half of the total available resource:
The Hubbert equation assumes that oil production is symmetrical about the peak. Others have used similar but non-symmetrical equations which may provide better a fit to empirical production data.[9]
Use of multiple curves
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The sum of multiple Hubbert curves, a technique not developed by Hubbert himself, may be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios. When new production methods, namely
Reliability
Crude oil
Hubbert, in his 1956 paper,[4] presented two scenarios for US crude oil production:
- most likely estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6%, an ultimate resource equal to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965. The size of the ultimate resource was taken from a synthesis of estimates by well-known oil geologists and the US Geological Survey, which Hubbert judged to be the most likely case.
- upper-bound estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6% and ultimate resource equal to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.
Hubbert's upper-bound estimate, which he regarded as optimistic, accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970, although the actual peak was 17% higher than Hubbert's curve. Production declined, as Hubbert had predicted, and stayed within 10 percent of Hubbert's predicted value from 1974 through 1994; since then, actual production has been significantly greater than the Hubbert curve. The development of new technologies has provided access to large quantities of unconventional resources, and the boost of production has largely discounted Hubbert's prediction.[citation needed]
Hubbert's 1956 production curves depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but he was dissatisfied by the uncertainty this introduced, given the various estimates ranging from 110 billion to 590 billion barrels for the US. Starting in his 1962 publication, he made his calculations, including that of ultimate recovery, based only on mathematical analysis of production rates, proved reserves, and new discoveries, independent of any geological estimates of future discoveries. He concluded that the ultimate recoverable oil resource of the contiguous 48 states was 170 billion barrels, with a production peak in 1966 or 1967. He considered that because his model incorporated past technical advances, that any future advances would occur at the same rate, and were also incorporated.[11] Hubbert continued to defend his calculation of 170 billion barrels in his publications of 1965 and 1967, although by 1967 he had moved the peak forward slightly, to 1968 or 1969.[12][13]
A post-hoc analysis of peaked oil wells, fields, regions and nations found that Hubbert's model was the "most widely useful" (providing the best fit to the data), though many areas studied had a sharper "peak" than predicted.[14]
A 2007 study of oil depletion by the UK Energy Research Centre pointed out that there is no theoretical and no robust practical reason to assume that oil production will follow a logistic curve. Neither is there any reason to assume that the peak will occur when half the ultimate recoverable resource has been produced; and in fact, empirical evidence appears to contradict this idea. An analysis of a 55 post-peak countries found that the average peak was at 25 percent of the ultimate recovery.[15]
Natural gas
Hubbert also predicted that natural gas production would follow a logistic curve similar to that of oil. The graph shows actual gas production in blue compared to his predicted gas production for the United States in red, published in 1962.[16]
Economics
Energy return on energy investment
The ratio of energy extracted to the energy expended in the process is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or
There is a difference between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a
The assumption of inevitable declining volumes of oil and gas produced per unit of effort is contrary to recent experience in the US. In the United States, as of 2017, there has been an ongoing decade-long increase in the productivity of oil and gas drilling in all the major tight oil and gas plays. The US Energy Information Administration reports, for instance, that in the Bakken Shale production area of North Dakota, the volume of oil produced per day of drilling rig time in January 2017 was 4 times the oil volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and nearly 10 times the oil volume per day of ten years previous, in January 2007. In the Marcellus gas region of the northeast, The volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in January 2017 was 3 times the gas volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and 28 times the gas volume per day of drilling ten years previous, in January 2007.[17]
Growth-based economic models
Insofar as economic growth is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed:[18]
Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries, we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel, we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of non-growth.
— M. King Hubbert, "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History"
Some economists describe the problem as
Between 1950 and 1984, as the
David Pimentel, professor of ecology and
Hubbert peaks
Although Hubbert's peak theory receives the most attention concerning peak oil production, it has also been applied to other natural resources.
Natural gas
Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American peak would occur in 2007.[25] Bentley predicted a world "decline in conventional gas production from about 2020".[26]
Coal
Although observers believe that peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, Hubbert studied the specific example of
More recent estimates suggest an earlier peak. Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KB[28]), published on April 5, 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years.[29] Reporting on this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal is likely to come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.[30] A second study, The Future of Coal by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre, reaches similar conclusions and states that "coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future".[29]
Work by
Fissionable materials
In a paper in 1956,[32] after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power:
There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may, at last, have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."
As of 2015, the identified resources of uranium are sufficient to provide more than 135 years of supply at the present rate of consumption.
Caltech physics professor David Goodstein stated in 2004[34] that
... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.
Helium
Almost all
Helium, which is the second-lightest chemical element, will rise to the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, where it can forever break free from Earth's gravitational attraction.[35] Approximately 1,600 tons of helium are lost per year as a result of atmospheric escape mechanisms.[36]
Transition metals
Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal" use in fuel cells notes that the metal could be easily recycled.
Precious metals
In 2009, Aaron Regent president of the Canadian gold giant Barrick Gold said that global output has been falling by roughly one million ounces a year since the start of the decade. The total global mine supply has dropped by 10 percent as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run. "There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London. "Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.[44]
Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970. Output fell a further 14 percent in South Africa in 2008 as companies were forced to dig ever deeper – at greater cost – to replace depleted reserves.
World mined gold production has peaked four times since 1900: in 1912, 1940, 1971, and 2001, each peak being higher than previous peaks. The latest peak was in 2001 when production reached 2,600 metric tons, then declined for several years.[45] Production started to increase again in 2009, spurred by high gold prices, and achieved record new highs each year in 2012, 2013, and 2014, when production reached 2,990 tonnes.[46]
Phosphorus
Phosphorus supplies are essential to farming and depletion of reserves is estimated at somewhere from 60 to 130 years.[47] According to a 2008 study, the total reserves of phosphorus are estimated to be approximately 3,200 MT, with peak production at 28 MT/year in 2034.[48] Individual countries' supplies vary widely; without a recycling initiative America's supply[49] is estimated around 30 years.[50] Phosphorus supplies affect agricultural output which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. Its increasing price and scarcity (the global price of rock phosphate rose 8-fold in the 2 years to mid-2008) could change global agricultural patterns. Lands, perceived as marginal because of remoteness, but with very high phosphorus content, such as the Gran Chaco[51] may get more agricultural development, while other farming areas, where nutrients are a constraint, may drop below the line of profitability.
Renewable resources
Wood
Unlike fossil resources, forests keep growing, thus the Hubbert peak theory does not apply. There had been wood shortages in the past, called
Water
Hubbert's original analysis did not apply to renewable resources. However,
For example, a reserve such as the Ogallala Aquifer can be mined at a rate that far exceeds replenishment. This turns much of the world's underground water[53] and lakes[54] into finite resources with peak usage debates similar to oil. These debates usually center around agriculture and suburban water usage but generation of electricity[55] from nuclear energy or coal and tar sands mining mentioned above is also water resource intensive. The term fossil water is sometimes used to describe aquifers whose water is not being recharged.
Fishing
At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization (Hubbert curve) on the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.[56] The Atlantic northwest cod fishery was a renewable resource, but the numbers of fish taken exceeded the fish's rate of recovery. The end of the cod fishery does match the exponential drop of the Hubbert bell curve. Another example is the cod of the North Sea.[57]
Air/oxygen
Half the world's oxygen is produced by phytoplankton. The plankton was once thought to have dropped by 40% since the 1950s.[58] However, the authors reanalyzed their data with better calibrations and found plankton abundance dropped globally by only a few percent over this time interval (Boyce et al. 2014)
Criticisms of peak oil
Economist Michael Lynch[59] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is simplistic and relies on an overly Malthusian point of view.[60] Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates, and that Campbell has repeatedly pushed back the date.[61][62]
Leonardo Maugeri, vice president of the Italian energy company
Edward Luttwak, an economist and historian, claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.[65] The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) responds by claiming neither Russia nor Iran are troubled by unrest currently, but Iraq is.[66]
Cambridge Energy Research Associates authored a report that is critical of Hubbert-influenced predictions:[67]
Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected.
CERA does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an "undulating plateau" for one or more decades before declining slowly,[68] and that production will reach 40 Mb/d by 2015.[69]
Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.[70]
Criticisms of peak element scenarios
Although M. King Hubbert himself made major distinctions between decline in petroleum production versus depletion (or relative lack of it) for elements such as fissionable uranium and thorium,
As some illustrations, tin, copper, iron, lead, and zinc all had both production from 1950 to 2000 and reserves in 2000 much exceed world reserves in 1950, which would be impossible except for how "proved reserves are like an inventory of cars to an auto dealer" at a time, having little relationship to the actual total affordable to extract in the future.
See also
- Abiogenic petroleum origin
- Decline curve analysis
- Fischer–Tropsch process
- Food security
- Hirsch report on peak oil
- Kuznets curve
- Limits to Growth
- Low-carbon economy
- Olduvai theory
- Peak wheat
- Reserves-to-production ratio
- Sustainable agriculture
- Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections
Notes
- ^ Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2005 [1]
- ^ J.R. Wood. "Peak Oil: The Looming Energy Crisis". Michigan Technological University. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
- ^ Domm, Patti (2018-01-31). "US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970". CNBC. Retrieved 2018-04-30.
- ^ a b Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7–8–9, 1956 "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2008-05-27. Retrieved 2014-11-10.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "1976 Hubbert Clip". YouTube. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ Bartlett A.A 1999 ,"An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves." Mathematical Geology.
- ^ M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p. 57.
- S2CID 18847791.
- ProQuest 2239256388.
- ^ Laherrère, J.H. (Feb 18, 2000). "The Hubbert curve : its strengths and weaknesses". dieoff.org. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved September 16, 2011.
- ^ M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p. 60.
- .
- .
- .
- ISBN 1-903144-03-5.[page needed]
- ^ M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, pp. 81–83.
- ^ US Energy Information Administration, Drilling productivity report, 15 May 2017, (see “Report data” spreadsheet).
- ^ "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History". Hubbertpeak.com. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Our Perpetual Growth Utopia". Dieoff.org. Archived from the original on 2019-04-28. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "The Growth of World Trade and GDP: 1951-2005" (PDF). IMF. 2006. Retrieved 28 June 2023.
- ^ "Agriculture - how peak oil could lead to starvation". wolf.readinglitho.co.uk. Archived from the original on August 18, 2007.
- ^ Cynic, Aaron (2003-10-02). "Eating Fossil Fuels". Energybulletin.net. Archived from the original on 2007-06-11. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Policy Reports | Soil Association". www.soilassociation.org. Archived from the original on September 28, 2007.
- ^ "The Oil Drum: Europe | Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference". Europe.theoildrum.com. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ "Startseite" (PDF). Energy Watch Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-09-11. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ "Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff", by David Strahan, New Scientist, January 19, 2008, pp. 38–41.
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- ^ Jones, Tony (23 November 2004). "Professor Goodstein discusses lowering oil reserves". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 2013-05-09. Retrieved 14 April 2013.
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- ^ "Earth Loses 50,000 Tonnes of Mass Every Year". SciTech Daily. 5 February 2012.
- ^ "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History". Hubbertpeak.com. Archived from the original on 2013-07-12. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ Andrew Leonard (2006-03-02). "Peak copper?". Salon. Archived from the original on 2008-03-07. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
- ^ "Peak Copper Means Peak Silver". News.silverseek.com. Archived from the original on 2013-11-04. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Commodities – Demand fears hit oil, metals prices". Uk.reuters.com. 2009-01-29. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- .
- ^ "Department for Transport". Dft.gov.uk. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out". Telegraph. 11 November 2009. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ Thomas Chaise, World gold production 2010, 13 May 2010.
- ^ US Geological Survey, Gold, Mineral commodity summaries, Jan. 2016.
- ^ "APDA - Home" (PDF). www.apda.pt. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2006.
- ^ White, Stuart; Cordell, Dana (2008). "Peak Phosphorus: the sequel to Peak Oil". Global Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI). Retrieved 2009-12-11.
- U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
- ^ Ecological Sanitation Research Programme (May 2008). "Closing the Loop on Phosphorus" (PDF). Stockholm Environment Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2006-08-05. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
- ^ Don Nicol. "A postcard from the central Chaco" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-02-26. Retrieved 2009-01-23.
alluvial sandy soils have phosphorus levels of up to 200–300 ppm
- ^ Meena Palaniappan and Peter H. Gleick (2008). "The World's Water 2008–2009, Ch 1" (PDF). Pacific Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-03-20. Retrieved 2009-01-31.
- ^ "World?s largest acquifer going dry". www.uswaternews.com. Archived from the original on September 13, 2006.
- ^ "April 7, 2005: Disappearing Lakes, Shrinking Seas - DATA". www.earth-policy.org. Archived from the original on September 3, 2006.
- ^ http://www.epa.gov/cleanrgy/water_resource.htm [dead link]
- ^ "How General is the Hubbert Curve?". Aspoitalia.net. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Laherrere: Multi-Hubbert Modeling". Hubbertpeak.com. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Plankton, base of ocean food web, in big decline". NBC News. 2010-07-28. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Energyseer, Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc., Seer". Energyseer.com. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ Michael C. Lynch. "The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)" (PDF). Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
- ^ "Michael Lynch Hubbert Peak of Oil Production". Hubbertpeak.com. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ "Oil, Oil Everywhere". Forbes. July 24, 2006. Archived from the original on August 20, 2007.
- ^ "The truth about global oil supply". Thefirstpost.co.uk. Archived from the original on 2007-09-26. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas". Peakoil.net. 26 September 2005. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
- ^ "Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down -- Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources - peak oil, upstream, oil production, oil supply, Peter M. Jackson, Yergin Market, Research, Size, Share, Trends, Analysis, Demand, Sales, CERA, e-Profile, energy, Yergin, Prize, oil, natural gas, petroleum, electric power, consulting, retail, research, commanding, heights, globalization". cera.ecnext.com. Archived from the original on December 6, 2006.
- ^ Valentine, Katie (2006-11-14). "CERA says peak oil theory is faulty". Energybulletin.net. Archived from the original on 2006-11-28. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ Valentine, Katie (2005-05-24). "Oil: Caveat empty". Energybulletin.net. Archived from the original on 2008-06-03. Retrieved 2013-11-03.
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- ^ a b c James D. Gwartney, Richard L. Stroup, Russell S. Sobel, David MacPherson. Economics: Private and Public Choice, 12th Edition. South-Western Cengage Learning, p. 730. extract, accessed 5-20-2012
- ^ U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
- ^ American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #V33A-1161. Mass and Composition of the Continental Crust
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References
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- Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October
- Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35
- Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982