Real-estate bubble
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A real-estate bubble or property bubble (or
Bubbles in housing markets are more critical than
The
Identification and prevention
This article needs additional citations for verification. (June 2013) |
As with all types of economic bubbles, disagreement exists over whether or not a real estate bubble can be identified or predicted, then perhaps prevented. Speculative bubbles are persistent, systematic and increasing deviations of actual prices from their fundamental values.[4] Real estate bubbles can be difficult to identify even as they are occurring, due to the difficulty of discerning the intrinsic value of real estate. As with other medium and long range economic trends, accurate prediction of future bubbles has proven difficult.[1]
In real estate, fundamentals can be estimated from rental yields (where real estate is then considered in a similar vein to stocks and other financial assets) or based on a regression of actual prices on a set of demand and/or supply variables.[5][6]
American economist
A
Macroeconomic significance
Within some schools of
The pre-dominating economic perspective is that increases in housing prices result in little or no wealth effect, namely it does not affect the consumption behavior of households not looking to sell. The house price becoming compensation for the higher implicit rent costs for owning. Increasing house prices can have a negative effect on consumption through increased rent inflation and a higher propensity to save given expected rent increase.[10]
In some schools of heterodox economics, notably
The Post-Keynesian theory of debt deflation takes a demand-side view, arguing that property owners not only feel richer but borrow to (i) consume against the increased value of their property – by taking out a home equity line of credit, for instance; or (ii) speculate by buying property with borrowed money in the expectation that it will rise in value. When the bubble bursts, the value of the property decreases but not the level of debt. The burden of repaying or defaulting on the loan depresses aggregate demand, it is argued, and constitutes the proximate cause of the subsequent economic slump.
Housing market indicators
In attempting to identify bubbles before they burst, economists have developed a number of
.Housing affordability measures
- The price to income ratio is the basic affordability measure for housing in a given area. It is generally the ratio of disposable incomes, expressed as a percentage or as years of income. It is sometimes compiled separately for first-time buyers and termed attainability.[citation needed] This ratio, applied to individuals, is a basic component of mortgage lending decisions.[citation needed] According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Goldman Sachs, a comparison of median home prices to median household income suggests that U.S. housing in 2005 was overvalued by 10%. "However, this estimate is based on an average mortgage rate of about 6%, and we expect rates to rise", the firm's economics team wrote in a recent[when?] report.[13] According to Goldman's figures, a one-percentage-point rise in mortgage rates would reduce the fair value of home prices by 8%.[citation needed]
- The deposit to income ratio is the minimum required downpayment for a typical mortgage [specify], expressed in months or years of income. It is especially important for first-time buyers without existing home equity; if the down payment becomes too high then those buyers may find themselves "priced out" of the market. For example, as of 2004[update] this ratio was equal to one year of income in the UK.[14]).
Another variant is what the United States's National Association of Realtors calls the "housing affordability index" in its publications.[15] (The soundness of the NAR's methodology was questioned by some analysts as it does not account for inflation.[16] - The affordability index measures the ratio of the actual monthly cost of the mortgage to take-home income. It is used more in the United Kingdom where nearly all mortgages are variable and pegged to bank lending rates. It offers a much more realistic measure of the ability of households to afford housing than the crude price to income ratio. However it is more difficult to calculate, and hence the price-to-income ratio is still more commonly used by pundits.[who?] In recent years,[when?] lending practices have relaxed, allowing greater multiples of income to be borrowed.
- The median multiple measures the ratio of the median house price to the median annual household income. This measure has historically hovered around a value of 3.0 or less, but in recent years[when?] has risen dramatically, especially in markets with severe public policy constraints on land and development.[17]
Housing debt measures
- The housing debt to income ratio or debt-service ratio is the ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income. When the ratio gets too high, households become increasingly dependent on rising property values to service their debt. A variant of this indicator measures total home ownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, as a percentage of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income; for example see RBC Economics' reports for the Canadian markets.[18]
- The housing debt to equity ratio (not to be confused with the corporate financial leverage. This ratio increases when the homeowner takes a second mortgage or home equity loan using the accumulated equity as collateral. A ratio greater than 1 implies that owner's equityis negative.
Housing ownership and rent measures
- Bubbles can be determined when an increase in housing prices is higher than the rise in rents. In the US, rent between 1984 and 2013 has risen steadily at about 3% per year, whereas between 1997 and 2002 housing prices rose 6% per year. Between 2011 and the third quarter of 2013, housing prices rose 5.83% and rent increased 2%.[19]
- The ownership ratio is the proportion of households who own their homes as opposed to home ownership.[20] If a rise in ownership is not supported by a rise in incomes, it can mean either that buyers are taking advantage of low interest rates (which must eventually rise again as the economy heats up) or that home loans are awarded more liberally, to borrowers with poor credit. Therefore, a high ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of subprime lendingmay signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles.
- The equities. To compute the P/E ratio for the case of a rented house, divide the price of the house by its potential earnings or net income, which is the market annual rentof the house minus expenses, which include maintenance and property taxes. This formula is:
- The house price-to-earnings ratioprovides a direct comparison with P/E ratios utilised to analyze other uses of the money tied up in a home. Compare this ratio to the simpler but less accurate price-rent ratio below.
- The price-rent ratio is the average cost of ownership divided by the received rent income (if buying to let) or the estimated rent (if buying to reside):
- The latter is often measured using the "owner's equivalent rent" numbers published by the price-earnings ratio; in other terms it measures how much the buyer is paying for each dollar of received rent income (or dollar saved from rent spending). Rents, just like corporate and personal incomes, are generally tied very closely to supply and demand fundamentals; one rarely sees an unsustainable "rent bubble" (or "income bubble" for that matter).[citation needed] Therefore a rapid increase of home prices combined with a flat renting market can signal the onset of a bubble. The U.S. price-rent ratio was 18% higher than its long-run average as of October 2004.[21]
- The gross rental yield, a measure used in the United Kingdom, is the total yearly gross rent divided by the house price and expressed as a percentage:
- This is the reciprocal of the house price-rent ratio. The net rental yield deducts the landlord's expenses (and sometimes estimated rental voids) from the gross rent before doing the above calculation; this is the reciprocal of the house P/E ratio.
- Because rents are received throughout the year rather than at its end, both the gross and net rental yields calculated by the above are somewhat less than the true rental yields obtained when taking into account the monthly nature of rental payments.
- The occupancy rate (opposite: vacancy rate) is the number of occupied housing units divided by the total number of units in a given region (in commercial real estate, usually expressed in terms of area (i.e. in oversupply brought about by speculative construction and purchase. In this context, supply-and-demand numbers can be misleading: sales demand exceeds supply, but rent demand does not.[citation needed]
Housing price indices
Measures of house price are also used in identifying housing bubbles; these are known as house price indices (HPIs).
A noted series of HPIs for the United States are the
List of real estate bubbles
From end of cold war to 2008 Great Recession
The crash of the
As of 2007[update], real estate bubbles had existed in the recent past or were widely believed to still exist in many parts of the world.[24] including Argentina,[25] New Zealand, Ireland, Spain, Lebanon, Poland,[26] and Croatia.[27] Then U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at a minimum, there's a little 'froth' (in the U.S. housing market) … it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles."[28] The Economist magazine, writing at the same time, went further, saying "the worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history".[29]
In France, the economist Jacques Friggit publishes each year a study called "Evolution of the price, value and number of property sales in France since the 19th century",[30] showing a high price increase since 2001. Yet, the existence of a real estate bubble in France is discussed by economists.[31] Real estate bubbles are invariably followed by severe price decreases (also known as a house price crash) that can result in many owners holding mortgages that exceed the value of their homes.[32] 11.1 million residential properties, or 23.1% of all U.S. homes, were in negative equity at December 31, 2010.[33] Commercial property values remained around 35% below their mid-2007 peak in the United Kingdom. As a result, banks have become less willing to hold large amounts of property-backed debt, likely a key issue affecting the worldwide recovery in the short term.
By 2006, most areas of the world were thought to be in a bubble state, although this hypothesis, based upon the observation of similar patterns in real estate markets of a wide variety of countries,[34] was subject to controversy. Such patterns include those of overvaluation and, by extension, excessive borrowing based on those overvaluations.[35][36] The
For individual countries, see:
- Baltic states housing bubble
- British property bubble
- Canadian property bubble
- Chinese property bubble– 2005–2011
- Danish property bubble – 2001–2006
- Irish property bubble – 1999–2006
- Japanese asset price bubble – 1986–1991
- Lebanese property bubble
- Polish property bubble – 2002–2008
- Romanian property bubble
- Spanish property bubble – 1985–2008, 2008-2014
- United States housing bubble – 1997–2006[37]
From 2008 Great Recession to now
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (February 2022) |
- Australian property bubble
- British property bubble
- Canadian property bubble
- New Zealand property bubble
US real estate bubble 2012–present
This section needs to be updated.(March 2020) |
The Washington Post writer Lisa Sturtevant thinks that the housing market of 2013 was not indicative of a housing bubble. "A critical difference between the current market and the overheated market of the middle of last decade is the nature of the mortgage market. Stricter underwriting standards have limited the pool of potential homebuyers to those who are most qualified and most likely to be able to pay loans back. The demand this time is based more closely on market fundamentals. And the price growth we’ve experienced recently is 'real.' Or 'more real.'"[38] Other recent research indicates that mid-level managers in securitized finance did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets.[39]
Economist David Stockman believes that a second housing bubble was started in 2012 and still inflating as of February 2013.[40] Housing inventory began to dwindle starting in early 2012 as hedge fund investors and private equity firms purchase single-family homes in hopes of renting them out while waiting for a housing rebound.[41] Due to the policies of QE3, mortgage interest rates have been hovering at an all-time low, causing real estate values to rise. Home prices have risen unnaturally as much as 25% within one year in metropolitan areas like the San Francisco Bay Area and Las Vegas.[42]
Eurozone real estate bubble COVID Pandemic
House prices in the Eurozone increased dramatically during the COVID pandemic.[43]
As an example, in Prague, a person would need 17.3 years of salary to buy a 70 sqm flat.[44]
See also
- Deed in lieu of foreclosure
- Estate (land)
- Foreclosure consultant
- Jeonse
- Real estate appraisal
- Real estate economics
- Real estate pricing
- Real estate
- Real estate business
- 2008–2014 Spanish real estate crisis
References
- ^ ISSN 1941-1383.
- ^ Ikromov, Nuridding and Abdullah Yavas, 2012a, "Asset Characteristics and Boom and Bust Periods: An Experimental Study". Real Estate Economics. 40, 508–535.
- ^ Klein, Ezra (May 28, 2009). "Bill Clinton and the Housing Bubble". Washington Post. Retrieved September 22, 2011.
- ISSN 0740-9168.
- ^
Nneji, Ogonna; ISSN 0896-5803.
- ^
Nneji, Ogonna; ISSN 0264-9993.
- ^ Christie, Les (May 31, 2011). "Home prices: 'Double-dip' confirmed". CNN Money.
- ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
- ^ Wetzel, Dave (September 20, 2004). "The case for taxing land". New Statesman. Archived from the original on August 14, 2007. Retrieved June 13, 2008.
- ^ Nocera, Andrea (June 2017). "House prices and monetary polic in the Euro area: a structural VAR analysis" (PDF). European Central Bank - Working Papers (2073).
- ^ "Speculative Bubble: What it is, How it Works". Investopedia. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ "Interactive Table: How Bubbly Is Your Housing Market?". Business Week. April 11, 2005. Archived from the original on November 30, 2007. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ seek.estate
- ^ "Home - SecurityNational Mortgage Company". snmcblog.com. Retrieved January 6, 2017.
- ^ "Affordable Housing Real Estate Resource: Housing Affordability Index". National Association of Realtors. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ seek.estate
- ^ "10th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2014" (PDF). Retrieved November 11, 2014.
- ^ June 2, 2005 report
- ^ Wallison, Peter J (January 5, 2014), "The Bubble is Back", The New York Times, New York, p. A15, retrieved April 14, 2014
- ISBN 978-0-73-976778-8.
- ^ Krainer, John; Wei, Chishen (October 1, 2004). "House Prices and Fundamental Value". Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- ^ Fackler, Martin (December 25, 2005). "Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt". New York Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ Lee, Don (January 8, 2006). "A Home Boom Busts". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ a b Putland, Gavin R. (June 1, 2009). "From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home". Land Values Research Group. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ "The good times are here again". Global Property Guide. February 28, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ "The end of Poland's house price boom". Global Property Guide. August 25, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ "Real estate prices in Adriatic Coast up, Zagreb down". Global Property Guide. August 19, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ Leonhardt, David (December 25, 2005). "2005: In a Word: Frothy". New York Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ "The global housing boom". The Economist. June 16, 2005.
- ^ "The French housing market and its environment since 1800". Conseil Général de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable. Retrieved December 21, 2016.
- ^ "Bulle immobilière : de quoi parle-t-on et que faut-il craindre ?". Ideal-investisseur. Retrieved December 21, 2016.
- ^ Kellington, Tom (May 25, 2021). "What happens when real estate bubbles pop?". The Business Daily. Retrieved May 26, 2021.
- ^ Philyaw, Jason (March 8, 2011). "Underwater mortgages back above 11 million in 4Q". CoreLogic. Retrieved April 14, 2014.
- ^ "House Prices Worldwide". Global Property Guide. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
- ^ "Headlines in the financial press ranged from “Property slowdown fuels China fears” to “China property correction would be painful, but salutary” (Financial Times, 2014e, p. 3). Housing demand has been increasing due to higher incomes, rapid urbanization and China’s rural urban migration strategy"
- ISBN 9781315762289.
- ^ Bajaj, Vikas; Leonhardt, David (December 18, 2008). "Tax Break May Have Helped Cause Housing Bubble". New York Times. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
- ^ Sturtevant, Lisa A. (March 26, 2013). "Is the Washington, D.C.-area housing market bubbling again?". The Washington Post.
- ^ Wall Street and the Housing Bubble, Princeton University, September 2013
- ^ "This is Housing Bubble 2.0: David Stockman". Yahoo Finance. February 4, 2013.
- ^ StreetAuthority (January 15, 2013). "Why Blackstone Bought 16,000 Homes". SeekingAlpha.com. Retrieved January 6, 2017.
- ^ "Comeback for California Housing Prices". NBCLosAngeles.com. January 29, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2017.
- ^ Battistini, Niccolò; Falagiarda, Matteo; Gareis, Johannes; Hackmann, Angelina; Roma, Moreno (November 9, 2021). "The euro area housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic".
- ^ "Dostupnost bydlení se opět zhoršila. Na nový byt v Praze je potřeba už 17,3 ročních mezd". www.central-group.cz (in Czech). June 14, 2022. Archived from the original on October 12, 2022. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
Further reading
- ISBN 1-85788-348-9
- ISBN 0-691-12335-7.
- ISBN 0-07-142220-X.
- ISBN 0-15-602963-4.
- ISBN 0-7645-2590-5.
- ISBN 0-393-05854-9.
- ISBN 0-465-09082-6.