2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A
New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Joe Biden — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring Delaware — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president and Pennsylvanian-born Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 926,633 | 88.2% | 156 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,310 | 6.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 55,611 | 5.3% | |||
| Total: | 1,050,554 | 100.0% | 159 | 27 | 186 |
| Source: [4] | |||||
Republican primary
The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 744,055 | 82.5% | 38 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 146,976 | 16.3% | |||
| Write-in votes | 10,387 | 1.2% | |||
| Total: | 901,418 | 100.0% | 67 | 67 | |
| Source: [5] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[6]
|
Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[7]
|
Tossup | April 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[9] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[10] | Tossup | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| The Bullfinch Group[A] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18%[b] |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[B] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| CNN/SSRS | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 52% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 32% | 40% | 28% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5%[c] |
| The Bullfinch Group | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 816 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Prime Group[D] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19%[d] | ||
| Quinnipiac University | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[E] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[F] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2023 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3%[e] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 775 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2024 | 494 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[G] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 7% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,069 (LV) | – | 39% | 40% | 9% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.6 | 35% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
- Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 36% | 26% | 18% | 7% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 34% | 13% | 3% | 12% |
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
Debate
The sole vice presidential debate is scheduled to be held at Lafayette College in Easton on September 25, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates.[11]
See also
- United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
- Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
