2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
← 2002 November 7, 2006 2010 →
 
Nominee Ed Rendell Lynn Swann
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Catherine Baker Knoll Jim Matthews
Popular vote 2,470,517 1,622,135
Percentage 60.33% 39.61%
Rendell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%     80–90%      >90%
Swann:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
Governor before election

Ed Rendell
Democratic

Elected Governor

Ed Rendell
Democratic

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The 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the

governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic governor Ed Rendell successfully ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll
, was also running for re-election.

As of 2025, this is the most recent gubernatorial election in which the Democratic candidate has carried the following counties- Clearfield, Columbia, Elk, Mercer, Pike, Susquehanna, Warren, Washington, Wayne and Wyoming. This is the last time any statewide race in Pennsylvania resulted in a candidate getting over 60% of the vote.

Background

Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%.[1]

In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 50.6%-46.4% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 50.9%-48.4% over incumbent president Bush.

Although the state had voted Democratic in eight of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation had been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny were the Democratic strongholds, while the central part of the state was where the Republican Party fared best. The 2005 statewide party registration had Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state with 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered independent voters.[2]

Democratic primary

Michael Morrill, the

Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family.[3][4]
Rendell thus ran unopposed.

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes 654,985 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, was the son of popular former governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy Scranton family was the early front-runner. However, a series of blunders by his campaign,[6] and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns moved Swann into presumptive nominee status.[7]
The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lynn Swann Unopposed
Total votes 583,658 100.00

General election

Candidates

Withdrew

Failed to submit signatures

  • Hagan Smith, building contractor and chair of Butler County Constitution Party (Constitution)[11]
  • Russ Diamond, 2005 General Assembly pay raise whistleblower (Independent)[12]
    • Running mate: Tom Lingenfelter, former Republican state committeeman and perennial candidate

Four candidates were campaigning for governor,

the ballot in the Senate race.[15]

Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third-party candidates.[16]

Analysis

Former Steeler Lynn Swann courts voters tailgating before a football game between Pennsylvania's two football teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles.[17]

In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity.[citation needed] Rendell led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins. Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents[citation needed], which they felt would help him spread his message[citation needed]. They also pointed out that as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent.[18][19]

Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native

Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election.[23]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24]
 Solid D November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]
 Likely D November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[26] Safe D November 2, 2006
Real Clear Politics[27]
 Likely D November 6, 2006

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Ed
Rendell (D) 		Lynn
Swann (R)
Temple/Inquirer Poll[28] September 24, 2006 60% 33%
Rasmussen[29] September 22, 2006 56% 36%
WSJ[30]
 September 11, 2006 51.6% 42.1%
WSJ[30]
 August 28, 2006 48.4% 43.5%
Rasmussen[31] August 25, 2006 50% 38%
Strategic Vision[32] August 17, 2006 51% 41%
Quinnipiac[33] August 16, 2006 57% 38%
Rasmussen[34] July 26, 2006 50% 40%
WSJ[30]
 July 24, 2006 47.5% 41.1%
Strategic Vision[35] July 20, 2006 49% 36%
Rasmussen[36] June 26, 2006 50% 36%
Quinnipiac[37] June 22, 2006 55% 31%
WSJ[30]
 June 21, 2006 47.7% 43.4%
Strategic Vision[38] June 15, 2006 49% 38%
Rasmussen[39] May 25, 2006 52% 34%
Quinnipiac[40] May 12, 2006 55% 33%
Strategic Vision[41] May 10, 2006 49% 41%
Keystone Poll[42]
 May 3, 2006 49% 35%
Rasmussen[43] April 29, 2006 41% 44%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll[44] April 17–26, 2006 30% 29%
Muhlenberg[45]
 April 17–24, 2006 45% 39%
Strategic Vision[46] April 13, 2006 44% 42%
Quinnipiac[47] April 5, 2006 47% 37%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll[48] March 30, 2006 29% 35%
Rasmussen[49] March 28, 2006 44% 41%
Strategic Vision[50] March 15, 2006 44% 44%
Muhlenberg[51]
 March 4, 2006 46% 43%
Rasmussen[52] February 21, 2006 46% 43%
Quinnipiac[53] February 15, 2006 48% 36%
Keystone Poll[54]
 February 9, 2006 45% 42%
Strategic Vision[55] January 25, 2006 44% 46%
Rasmussen[56] January 19, 2006 43% 45%
Strategic Vision[57] December 21, 2005 45% 41%
Quinnipiac[58] December 13, 2005 48% 35%
Strategic Vision[59] November 16, 2005 45% 42%
Rasmussen[60] November 7, 2005 50% 36%
Strategic Vision[61] October 19, 2005 46% 41%
Keystone Poll[62]
 September 2005 53% 33%
Strategic Vision[63] September 12, 2005 48% 43%
Strategic Vision[64] August 2, 2005 47% 41%
Rasmussen July 20, 2005 47% 41%
Keystone Poll[62]
 June 2005 42% 32%
Keystone Poll[62]
 March 2005 59% 29%

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006[65][66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) 2,470,517 60.33
Republican Lynn Swann 1,622,135 39.61
Write-in 2,670 0.06
Total votes 4,095,322 100.00
Turnout   50.05
Democratic hold

Results by county

County[67] Ed Rendell
Democratic 		Lynn Swann
Republican 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Adams 13,034 43.28% 17,084 56.72% -4,050 -13.44% 30,118
Allegheny 275,227 59.92% 184,063 40.08% 91,164 19.84% 459,290
Armstrong 9,552 41.27% 13,595 58.73% -4,403 -17.46% 23,147
Beaver 35,510 54.99% 29,069 45.01% 6,441 9.98% 64,579
Bedford 6,372 38.29% 10,270 61.71% -3,898 -23.42% 16,642
Berks 66,837 57.16% 50,096 42.84% 16,741 14.32% 116,933
Blair 15,435 39.85% 23,295 60.15% -7,860 -20.30% 54,809
Bradford 8,485 44.30% 10,670 55.70% -2,185 -11.40% 19,155
Bucks 163,739 70.11% 69,798 29.89% 93,941 40.21% 233,537
Butler 24,936 39.24% 38,613 60.76% -13,677 -21.52% 63,549
Cambria 31,856 60.84% 20,506 39.16% 11,350 21.68% 52,362
Cameron 793 44.50% 989 55.50% -196 -11.00% 1,782
Carbon 10,633 60.59% 6,917 39.41% 3,176 21.18% 17,550
Centre 23,415 53.87% 20,051 46.13% 3,364 7.74% 43,466
Chester 112,960 65.15% 60,437 34.85% 52,523 30.30% 173,397
Clarion 5,451 42.07% 7,505 57.93% -2,054 -15.86% 12,956
Clearfield 12,938 50.21% 12,830 49.79% 108 0.42% 25,768
Clinton 5,464 55.73% 4,341 44.27% 1,123 11.46% 9,805
Columbia 9,281 50.55% 9,078 49.45% 203 1.10% 18,359
Crawford 11,695 41.92% 16,202 58.08% -4,507 -16.16% 27,897
Cumberland 32,737 41.48% 46,189 58.52% -13,452 -17.04% 78,926
Dauphin 39,711 45.64% 47,294 54.36% -7,853 -9.28% 87,005
Delaware 154,249 73.93% 54,043 26.07% 99,846 47.86% 208,652
Elk 6,907 60.56% 4,499 39.44% 2,408 21.12% 11,406
Erie 50,042 58.12% 36,059 41.88% 13,983 16.24% 86,101
Fayette 22,603 59.33% 15,492 40.67% 7,111 18.66% 38,095
Forest 929 46.73% 1,059 53.27% -130 -7.46% 1,988
Franklin 16,945 39.42% 26,043 60.58% -9,098 -21.16% 42,988
Fulton 1,670 38.49% 2,669 61.51% -999 -23.02% 4,339
Greene 7,055 55.44% 5,670 44.56% 1,385 10.88% 12,725
Huntingdon 5,490 40.39% 8,103 59.61% -2,613 -19.22% 13,593
Indiana 12,953 49.17% 13,390 50.83% -437 -1.67% 26,343
Jefferson 5,402 38.11% 8,774 61.89% -3,372 -23.78% 14,176
Juniata 2,748 35.49% 4,995 64.51% -2,247 -29.02% 7,743
Lackawanna 56,966 72.98% 21,905 27.02% 35,871 45.96% 78,061
Lancaster 62,934 41.79% 87,668 58.21% -24,734 -16.42% 150,602
Lawrence 17,557 55.06% 14,329 44.94% 3,228 10.12% 31,886
Lebanon 16,813 42.47% 22,775 57.53% -5,962 -15.06% 39,588
Lehigh 59,338 63.11% 34,692 36.89% 24,646 26.22% 94,030
Luzerne 64,628 67.55% 31,051 32.45% 33,577 35.10% 95,679
Lycoming 14,777 41.17% 21,116 58.83% -6,339 -17.66% 35,893
McKean 5,044 46.13% 5,890 53.87% -846 -7.74% 10,934
Mercer 19,888 52.17% 18,237 47.83% 1,651 4.34% 38,125
Mifflin 4,730 38.23% 7,642 61.77% -2,912 -23.54% 12,372
Monroe 21,430 60.36% 14,071 39.64% 7,359 20.72% 35,501
Montgomery 211,651 71.66% 83,718 28.34% 127,933 43.32% 295,369
Montour 2,764 47.47% 3,059 52.53% -295 -5.06% 5,823
Northampton 53,007 63.80% 30,081 36.20% 22,926 27.60% 83,088
Northumberland 13,470 50.62% 13,140 49.38% 330 1.24% 26,610
Perry 4,477 30.93% 9,998 69.07% -5,521 -38.14% 14,475
Philadelphia 383,339 89.39% 45,502 10.61% 337,837 78.78% 428,841
Pike 7,393 53.02% 6,551 46.98% 842 6.04% 13,944
Potter 2,035 36.78% 3,498 63.22% -1,463 -26.44% 5,533
Schuylkill 26,327 55.76% 20,886 44.24% 5,441 11.52% 47,213
Snyder 4,073 36.12% 7,203 63.88% -3,130 -27.76% 11,276
Somerset 12,499 45.41% 15,028 54.59% -2,529 -14.18% 27,527
Sullivan 1,264 49.78% 1,275 50.22% -11 -0.44% 2,539
Susquehanna 8,239 54.52% 6,874 45.48% 1,365 9.04% 15,113
Tioga 5,126 41.02% 7,370 58.98% -2,244 -17.96% 12,496
Union 5,006 43.50% 6,503 56.50% -1,497 -13.00% 11,509
Venango 7,906 44.80% 9,742 55.20% -1,836 -10.40% 17,648
Warren 7,278 55.46% 5,846 44.54% 1,432 10.92% 13,124
Washington 38,422 52.73% 34,440 47.27% 3,982 5.46% 72,862
Wayne 8,143 51.61% 7,635 48.38% 508 3.23% 15,778
Westmoreland 60,145 46.27% 69,854 53.73% -9,709 -7.46% 129,999
Wyoming 5,518 53.87% 4,726 46.13% 792 7.74% 10,244
York 55,276 43.92% 70,592 56.08% -15,316 -12.16% 125,868
Totals 2,470,517 60.36% 1,622,135 39.64% 848,382 20.72% 4,092,652

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ^ Survey USA
  2. ^ 2005 Municipal Election
  3. ^ "Morrill Majority". Archived from the original on May 10, 2017. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  4. ^ Morrill release Archived 2006-03-22 at the Wayback Machine
  5. ^ a b c d e f "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on November 8, 2002.
  6. ^ "Inquirer.com: Philadelphia local news, sports, jobs, cars, homes". Archived from the original on November 20, 2015.
  7. ^ "Lynn Swann Goes Deep".
  8. ^ Ed Rendell's Campaign Website
  9. ^ Lynn Swann's Campaign Website
  10. ^ Green Party
  11. ^ Hagan For Governor site Archived 2006-01-29 at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ "Russ Diamond's Campaign Website". Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  13. ^ Politics1: Pennsylvania
  14. ^ "Green Party candidates give up". Los Angeles Daily News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2011. Retrieved August 15, 2006.
  15. ^ Green Party candidate withdraws[permanent dead link‍]
  16. ^ Minor parties sue Archived 2007-09-30 at the Wayback Machine
  17. ^ a b Ritter, Kara (August 2006). "Ex-Steeler looks to sway support of Eagles' fans". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
  18. ^ Madonna analysis Archived 2005-12-14 at the Wayback Machine
  19. Terry Madonna) Center for Politics & Public Affairs Archived 2005-12-18 at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ A quarter-million thanks Archived 2012-09-06 at archive.today Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  21. ^ Rendell, Swann in dead heat Archived 2008-04-08 at the Wayback Machine Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  22. ^ Barnes, Tom; Roddy, Dennis B. (November 8, 2006). "Rendell cruises to 2nd term as governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  23. ^ Deparle, Jason (May 18, 2006). "G.O.P. Conservatives Topple Veteran State Lawmakers in Pennsylvania". The New York Times. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  24. ^ "2006 Governor Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved October 1, 2006.
  25. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  26. ^ "2006 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  27. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  28. ^ Temple/Inquirer Poll
  29. ^ Rasmussen
  30. ^ a b c d Zogby/WSJ
  31. ^ Rasmussen
  32. ^ Strategic Vision
  33. ^ Quinnipiac
  34. ^ Rasmussen
  35. ^ Strategic Vision
  36. ^ Rasmussen
  37. ^ Quinnipiac
  38. ^ Strategic Vision
  39. ^ Rasmussen
  40. ^ Quinnipiac
  41. ^ Strategic Vision
  42. ^ Keystone Poll
  43. ^ Rasmussen
  44. ^ IssuesPA/Pew Poll
  45. ^ Muhlenberg
  46. ^ Strategic Vision
  47. ^ Quinnipiac
  48. ^ IssuesPA/Pew Poll
  49. ^ Rasmussen
  50. ^ Strategic Vision
  51. ^ Muhlenberg [permanent dead link‍]
  52. ^ Rasmussen
  53. ^ Quinnipiac
  54. ^ Keystone Poll
  55. ^ Strategic Vision
  56. ^ Rasmussen
  57. ^ Strategic Vision
  58. ^ Quinnipiac
  59. ^ Strategic Vision
  60. ^ Rasmussen
  61. ^ Strategic Vision
  62. ^ a b c Keystone Poll
  63. ^ Strategic Vision
  64. ^ Strategic Vision
  65. ^ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-18.
  66. ^ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-84.
  67. ^ "2006 General Election (Official Returns)". Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Retrieved January 1, 2025.

Campaign websites (Archived)

Sources

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