2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
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| Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Minnesota is a slightly
Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008; in addition, the state was particularly close in 1984 (in which the state narrowly handed Mondale his only state victory), 2000, 2004 and 2016. Nonetheless, Minnesota is generally expected to lean towards the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024,[2]
and if this holds true in November, it will be the thirteenth consecutive Democratic win.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 232,846 | 69.1% | 27 | 27 | |
| Nikki Haley | 97,182 | 28.8% | 12 | 12 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,085 | 1.2% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,470 | 0.4% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,431 | 0.4% | |||
| Total: | 337,734 | 100.0% | 39 | 39 | |
| Source: [4] | |||||
Democratic primary
The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 171,278 | 70.1% | 64 | ||
| Uncommitted | 45,914 | 18.8% | 11 | ||
| Dean Phillips | 18,960 | 7.8% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,459 | 1.4% | |||
| Write-in votes | 2,000 | 0.8% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 758 | 0.3% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 692 | 0.3% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 372 | 0.2% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 323 | 0.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 290 | 0.1% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 235 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 242,594 | 100% | 75 | 17 | 92 |
| Source: [5] | |||||
Legal Marijuana Now primary
The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krystal Gabel (withdrew) | 759 | 28.84% | - | ||
Dennis Schuller
|
459 | 17.44% | 7 | ||
| Vermin Supreme | 397 | 15.08% | 6 | ||
| Rudy Reyes | 365 | 13.87% | 5 | ||
Edward Forchion
|
168 | 6.38% | 2 | ||
| Willie Nelson (write-in) | 19 | 0.72% | 0 | ||
| Other write-ins | 465 | 17.67% | - | ||
| Total: | 2,632 | 100.00% | 20 | ||
| Source:[6] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[7]
|
Likely D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[8]
|
Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]
|
Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Lean D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[A] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[A] | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| SurveyUSA[A] | January 24–29, 2024 | 1,594 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Embold Research/MinnPost | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,519 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Minnesota
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ KAAL-TV
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
- Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
