Criticism of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

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Iranian parliament

The

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell characterized it as "flawed",[2] while hardliners in Iran have indicated a desire to subvert it.[3] Much of the criticism in the United States has been centered on the issue of appeasement and Iran's compliance, while in Iran many of the criticisms revolve around the issue of sovereignty and non-nuclear restrictions.[4]

In Iran, debate over the deal has become representative of a number of persisting social, economic, and political conflicts that have played a large role in the rift between

conservatives.[5] In the United States, the deal is seen as a symbol in the battle between competing visions on how the United States should carry out its foreign policy in the Middle East
.

Background and content

Negotiation on Iran's nuclear program between the international community and Iran have occurred on and off since 2006, however the negotiations that led to the 2015 framework agreement, and the eventual final agreement, began in March 2013.

IAEA supervision of several Iranian nuclear sites, all in exchange for modest sanctions relief by the United States. The plan was slated to go into effect in January 2014.[10]

Further negotiations between P5+1 and Iran took place over the course of 2014 in pursuit of a more comprehensive deal. In June 2014, the deadline to meet the goal of a comprehensive agreement was not met and the deadline was therefore extended to November 2014. After the goal of November 2014 was not met, another extension was made to June 2015.[11]

In April 2015, the negotiations produced a

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with the other foreign ministers of P5+1 also taking part. On 14 July 2015, after seventeen days of near uninterrupted negotiations and a deadline extension, P5+1 and Iran reached a finalized agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.[13]

As of 2018,

IAEA inspectors spent 3,000 calendar days per year in Iran, installing tamper-proof seals and collecting surveillance camera photos, measurement data and documents. IAEA representatives asserted (e.g. in March 2018) that they have verified that Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments.[14]

Arak heavy water plant

Key provisions

  • Reduction of Iran's stockpile of
    Isfahan Province, Iran
    .
  • An exhaustive system of inspections by international observers from the
    fiber optic
    seals on equipment, sensors, and surveillance cameras. Dedicated IAEA inspectors for Iran, will triple from 50 to 150. IAEA inspectors also have the ability to request physical access to sites if specific concerns of non-compliance arise.
  • Iran will cut down on the number of operational
    IAEA
    supervision.
  • Iran is forbidden from constructing additional heavy water sites or accumulating additional heavy water for a period of fifteen years. Iran's existing Arak heavy water reactor site will be forbidden from producing power above 20 MWth (megawatt thermal) and will undergo a redesign to limit its capability to produce weapons grade plutonium. All heavy water in Iran's possession that exceeds the limitations of the deal will be placed for sale on the international market.
  • Iran will not participate in spent fuel reprocessing in any capacity for a period of fifteen years and all spent fuel in Iran will be shipped out of the country.
  • The
    centrifuges
    currently installed at Fordow, only 1,044 will be allowed to remain. Enriching of uranium at the site will also be heavily restricted.
  • A "snapback" mechanism that automatically replaces all
    international sanctions on Iran if compliance of the agreement is not met.[15][16]

Controversial features

Sanctions relief

The lifting of economic and military sanctions on Iran led to much ire among conservatives and some liberals in the United States who viewed the move as detrimental to security in the region.

foreign reserves.[18]

Effect on Israel

Shortly after the announcement of the deal, critics within the

Iran's nuclear program rather than hamper it. Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) visited Israel and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly after the announcement of the deal and vocalized his commitment to Israel. Prior to the visit, Cotton has said his solution to Iran's nuclear program would be a "credible threat of military force".[19][20]

Benjamin Netanyahu, who called the Iran nuclear deal a "historic mistake", told President Barack Obama that Israel was under increased threat because of the deal and said in a statement, "In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing."[21] Many conservatives in the United States claimed the deal would usher a financial windfall for Iranian sponsored groups in the Middle East that pose a threat to Israel including Hezbollah and Hamas. In addition the lack of focus on Iran's ballistic missile program and the lifting of weapons embargoes was also viewed as a peril for Israel.[22] President Donald Trump criticized what he viewed as the deal's "near total silence on Iran's missile programs."[23]

Inspection regime

Under the deal, international monitors are authorized to monitor declared Iranian nuclear sites through numerous electronic means including but not limited to: fiber-optic seals, cameras, sensors that detect radioactive particles, and commercial satellite imagery. President Obama said that

IAEA inspectors would have "24/7 access" to Iran's "key nuclear facilities".[24] Critics claimed that the inspection regime would not provide sufficient access to Iran's military sites. IAEA inspectors may request access to these sites if genuine concerns of non-compliance arise but it can take up to 24 days to resolve a dispute over an access request.[25] Critics say this provision means that Iran would be able to covertly advance its nuclear ambitions while still abiding by the deal.[26] Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, said the deal ensured the international community had "better access to Iran's military sites" than ever before.[27]

Opposition in Iran

Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic energy agency, is heckled by anti-JCPOA members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

Iran was less bitterly divided over the deal than the United States but opposition in the form of hardliners, especially in more conservative religious institutions such as the

Islamic Republic and are composed largely of clerical elites and religious reactionaries who bitterly oppose the West and Western ideals.[28] Those more open to the deal included Iran's centrists and reformists who are characterized by a greater openness to foreign cultures, secularization, and economic globalization. The JCPOA created a rift at the highest levels of government as evidenced by a leaked government directive to media outlets which urged them to praise the deal and its negotiators and avoid criticism.[29]

President Hassan Rouhani

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, who in many ways paved the way for the deal, said the alternative to the deal was an "economic Stone Age" brought on by sanctions and economic isolation. He also chastised the Revolutionary Guard Corps for its opposition.[30] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave his tacit approval of the deal and characterized it as a win for Iran exclaiming, "After 12 years of struggling with the Islamic republic, the result is that they have to bear the turning of thousands of centrifuges in the country", a move that is likely to quell the resistance of the country's hardliner factions.[31]

Hardliners are against the deal for a variety of the reasons, notably their desire to turn Iran into a nuclear armed state in order to deter the United States and Israel, its violations of the Ayatollah Khamenei's red lines, and their belief that international inspections are a front for American intelligence-gathering.[32] Unofficially, members of the Revolutionary Guard worry that opening Iran up to global trade with the removal of sanctions will impede the organization's profits. The Revolutionary Guard Corps is believed to control a third of Iran's economy, a staggeringly high figure that could be reduced with more international commerce.[33] Economic liberalization brought on by the deal could loosen the IRGC's control of the economy and lead to fresh resentment within the organization. In addition, the removal of U.S. sanctions also denies the Guard Corps from using the United States, or the West for that matter, as a propaganda tool and scapegoat for Iran's domestic problems.[34]

One of the most prominent opponents of the JCPOA in Iran is former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili who lambasted the deal and its negotiators for having offered too many concessions to American negotiators.[35] Jalili claimed the nuclear deal "violated Iran's independence and national sovereignty."[36]

Media in Iran is also divided on partisan lines as well, with conservative newspapers such as the

Ettelaat newspaper publishing articles that opposed the deal.[37]

In many ways, the battle over the

resistance economy", and more military intervention abroad.[34] Nevertheless, the Iranian parliament approved the Iran deal 161-59-13 sending it to the Guardian Council which passed it with a "strong majority".[38]

Challenges

Ali Khamenei with members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Outside of conservative political backlash there still remains a great litany of economic, social, and military challenges to the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal within Iran itself. Much of the popular support for the Iran deal comes from the public's perception of economic upsurges as a result of the sanctions relief brought on by the

JCPOA.[40]

Iran's increasing military involvement in the

Shiite proxy groups aggravates tensions between the region's powers and motivates Iran to "demonstrate its resolve" for the purpose of domestic audiences. The conflicts that arise as a result can lead to greater confrontation between the United States and Iran which can undermine the deal.[41]

Opposition in the United States

Political opposition

The Iran deal was met with almost unanimous derision and denunciation by

Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee lambasted John Kerry for not standing strongly enough with Israel. New Jersey governor Chris Christie said "The deal threatens Israel, it threatens the United States, and it turns 70 years of nuclear policy on its head."[43]

In the

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell accused the Obama administration of approaching the talks with a "flawed perspective" that prioritized Iran's interests over the "national goal" of Iranian nuclear disarmament.[46]

President Obama for "mischaracterizing" the threat Iran poses to the United States.[48]

Representative

U.S. House of Representatives that would classify the Iran nuclear deal as a treaty which, if passed, would require the Senate to vote on it. As it stands the Iran deal was made as an executive agreement. Gohmert said he would leave Congress if the resolution was passed.[50] Representative Steve King of Iowa's 4th congressional district, said in a Fox News interview that the deal "means tens of millions of lives down the road."[51]

Senator Ted Cruz delivers a speech before protesters denouncing the Iran nuclear deal.

A

Holocaust survivors, drew thousands of people to Times Square in New York City to protest the Iran deal. The crowd which numbered in the thousands chanted "Kill the deal!" and "Where is Chuck?" (in reference to Senator Chuck Schumer) and saw bipartisan speakers including George Pataki and Alan Dershowitz.[52]

In September 2015, Republican congressional leaders organized a

Alaska governor Sarah Palin who similarly voiced opposition to the deal.[53][54]

On the contrary,

National Public Radio that he was skeptical of removing sanctions and believed that the U.S. had tacitly acknowledged that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.[57]

The

JCPOA. Alongside its subsidiary group, Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, AIPAC's lobbying barrage targeted undecided Democratic politicians.[58][59]

Polling

A

Iranian-Americans found that 8 in 10 believed the agreement would improve ties between the United States and Iran.[64] A CNN/ORC poll administered in October 2017 on the Iran deal showed that 67% of American respondents wanted to remain in the deal.[65]

Experts

William H. Tobey, a senior fellow in

IAEA only had non-negotiable access to declared nuclear sites and not military or missile facilities, the deal was toothless, and Iran could easily develop a nuclear weapon under the nose of international inspectors.[67] James S. Robbins, a senior fellow in the American Foreign Policy Council called the deal "impotent" in an editorial in U.S. News & World Report due to the fact it does little to hamper Iran's missile programs.[68]

In August 2015, a letter signed by 190 former generals and admirals was sent to Congressional leaders expressing opposition to the bill. The letter argued that the deal put too many limitations on IAEA access to Iranian sites, would provide Iran with $150 billion in sanctions relief much of which would surely go funding

Marine Corps general Anthony Zinni said "I'm convinced that 90% of the guys who signed the letter one way or the other don't have any clue about whether it's a good or bad deal. They sign it because somebody's asked them to sign it."[71]

Trump administration

The Trump administration has characterized Iran as an adversary of the United States on numerous occasions and has been critical of the government in Tehran and the Iran nuclear deal. Over the course of the 2016 election, Donald Trump repeatedly attacked the deal. During a speech to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC he said dismantling the Iranian nuclear deal was his first priority.[72] During a presidential debate he described it as a "horrible deal".[73]

After assuming office, Trump administration

Democratic senators to the White House for a policy discussion on the deal. Those in the meeting reported that they felt as if the purpose of the discussion was to give McMaster talking points in his attempt to persuade President Trump to remain in the deal.[79] On 12 January 2018, President Trump issued another waiver of sanctions on Iran saying this was "to secure our European allies' agreement to fix the terrible flaws of the Iran nuclear deal."[80]

On 8 May 2018, Trump announced United States withdrawal from JCPOA.[81]

See also

References

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