Gas in Turkey
Fossil gas supplies over a quarter of Turkey's energy.[2][3] The country consumes 50 to 60 billion cubic metres of this natural gas each year,[4][5] nearly all of which is imported. A large gas field in the Black Sea however started production in 2023.[6]
After the
Households buy the most gas, followed by industry and power stations.[9] Over 80% of the population has access to gas,[10] and it supplies half the country's heating requirements.[4] As the state owned oil and gas wholesaler BOTAŞ has 80% of the gas market,[2]: 16 the government can and does subsidize residential and industrial gas consumers.[11] All industrial and commercial customers, and households using more than a certain amount of gas, can switch suppliers.[2]
History
The General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration was formed in 1935, but very little gas was found.[13][14] The most efficient way of importing gas is by pipeline from nearby countries, and the first imports were from Russia in 1986, followed by Iran.[15] However the pipeline from Azerbaijan only started in 2007.[15]
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) was first imported from Algeria in 1994 and from Nigeria in 1999.[15] In the early 21st century gas consumption increased.[16]: 9 Between 2000 and 2020 the share of imported energy increased from just over 50% to 70%.[17]
In 2019, the
Geopolitics
Unlike several European countries, which
Turkey's state-owned oil and gas exploration and production company
The Northern Iraq two rival parties Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) would have to agree for a new pipeline to take the shortest route, as it would come from wells in the part of the Kurdistan Region controlled by the PUK and pass through the part controlled by the KDP.[27] In 2022 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used missiles to strike a house belonging to Baz Karim Barzanji, a businessman working on a new pipeline, reportedly because he had met American and Israeli officials there.[28][29][30]
Impact and future
The largest source of
Turkey intends to increase the share of renewables and nuclear power in the national energy mix.[33] According to a May 2022 report from thinktank Ember, solar and wind saved 7 billion US dollars on gas imports in the preceding 12 months.[34] Some distribution companies are testing mixing up to 20% hydrogen with natural gas, so that eventually some of the gas distributed would be green hydrogen.[35][36]
Supply and demand
Supply
There are many sources of supply in the region and enough LNG import capacity in the country.[39]
In 2020
Almost half of the country's gas is imported from
In 2021 a contract was agreed with Azerbaijan to import 11 bcm more per year until the end of 2024.
Demand
Over 80% of the population, and all provinces in Turkey, have access to natural gas,[10] which supplies half of household final energy.[68] Households buy the most gas, followed by industry and power stations.[9] In 2021 consumption share included 27% households, 35% electricity production, 29% industry and 8% service sector.[44] The Energy Ministry expects demand for gas to increase slightly to 2030, but its share of primary energy consumption to fall slightly to less than a quarter.[69]: 19–20
In some years electricity generation in Turkey burns half the gas, but this varies greatly depending on whether there is enough rain to produce hydroelectricity; therefore, when it rains, Turkey burns less gas.[2]: 139 Peak demand is typically in mid-winter, averaging almost 300 million cubic metres (mcm) each day,[44] and the Chamber of Engineers said in 2022 that there was not enough storage.[70] There are 72 distribution zones and 18 million households are supplied with gas.[44] About half of residential energy demand is met by gas.[2]: 139 The International Energy Agency predicted in 2021 that use for electricity generation will decline.[2]: 140 However the national energy plan published in January 2023 forecasts over 10 GW more gas power may be needed by 2035 to balance variable renewable energy and for energy security.[69]: 15–16 All industrial and commercial consumers, and households buying over 75 thousand cubic-meters a year can switch suppliers.[2]
Transport, processing and storage
There are many gas pipelines,[67][74] and it may not be possible for Europeans to determine the origin of the gas they buy from Turkey.[75] Major gas pipelines (with capacity in bcm) are:
← | Out to west | Through | ← | In from east | ← |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 | Trans-Balkan | Trans-Anatolian
|
16 | TurkStream | 32 |
16 | Balkan Stream | Blue Stream | 16 | ||
10 | Trans Adriatic | South Caucasus | 24 | ||
Tabriz Ankara | 14 |
Gas from Russia comes via the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines; and from Iran via the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline.[76] Azerbaijan normally supplies Turkey through the South Caucasus Pipeline. Its gas flows onward through the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) supplying Turkey and some continues across the Greek border into the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.[77]
The Tabriz–Ankara pipeline is a 2,600-kilometre (1,600-mile) natural gas pipeline, which runs from
LNG can transit to Bulgaria, but there have been complaints that the deal is against EU free market rules.[84][85] Energy analysts doubt that Turkey will ever become a major gas transit country, and expect only Azeri gas transit to be significant.[86] However a few European countries, such as Serbia and Hungary, import Russian gas via Turkstream.[87] In 2021 Hungary's MVM Group and Gazprom signed a 15-year contract for 3.5 bcm to be supplied via Turk Stream and the Transbalkans pipeline, and in 2022 Hungary agreed 0.7 bcm per year more gas from Russia via Turk Stream.[88] In 2022 about 2 bcm from Turkstream was sent to Romania through the Trans-Balkan pipeline,[66] and exports to Moldova are starting in 2023.[89] Export to Ukraine through the Transbalkan has been technically possible since 2022,[90] and has been discussed between the 2 governments,[91] although Ukraine may be able to produce enough gas for its own needs.[92][93]
Black Sea gas is processed at Filyos.
Economics and consumption
According to BOTAŞ the price of gas for Turkish households was the lowest in Europe in 2022,[97] and they said residential customers were getting 70% price support from the government.[98] There are 72 gas distribution companies, with over 13 million consumers.[99] There is a biennial trade fair in Istanbul.[100]
Both national gas development and BOTAŞ are subsidised by the government.[101] In 2021 households were subsidized 80 billion lira ($7 billion) for gas - about 4 times their electricity subsidy.[102] Gas imports deplete foreign exchange reserves[103] and many analysts say that imported oil and gas is a key weakness in the economy of Turkey.[104] The country would like to become a hub to supply the EU,[105] however EU gas consumption is expected to decrease, so analyst Kadri Tastan says this is unlikely in the long term due to the EU green transition.[106] Although already somewhat of a physical hub for gas, Turkey cannot become a trading hub as the market, which is operated by Energy Exchange Istanbul, is not a free market.[107]
As of 2021[update] the annual gas import bill was around US$44 billion.
In 2023 Vitaly Yermakov, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote: “Until 2022 Gazprom sales to Turkey were subject to oil-indexation, but at the end of 2021 this was replaced by hub indexation. (Turkey insisted on the change hoping it would receive lower prices, probably in reference to 2020, but has been shocked by the tremendous gas hub price spikes through the end of 2021 and into 2022 and 2023. Turkey has since asked Gazprom for a postponement of payments and begged for discounts)."[88] He also said that Turkey's negotiating power with Russia for gas discounts is greater than it was before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.[88]: 15 A quarter of Russian gas is paid for in rubles.[116] In late 2022 Turkey was reported to have asked Russia for a discount on gas,[117] but prices are expected to remain high until the end of 2024[118] or 2026, with the 2023 price estimated by Bloomberg at around 500 USD per thousand cubic metres (compared to 300 for Russian sales to China) only slightly falling to 2026.[119] In 2024 the Energy Ministry said there were 357 gas-fired power stations in Turkey.
Subsidies and taxes
The wholesale gas market is not as competitive in Turkey as it is in the EU: some analysts say that this is because the government does not want to split up the state-owned gas company BOTAŞ, or give
A
Companies
Akfel Gas Group is state owned, and there are four private importers of gas.[20] Bosphorus Gaz, Bati Hat and Kibar Holding applied to import from Russia through the 6 bcm a year Trans-balkan pipeline in 2022, but the agreement for BOTAŞ to import gas through that pipeline ended that year.[129] Not all the 10 bcm contracted from Russia is actually flowing, possibly due to debts due to Gazprom by the companies.[20] Only BOTAŞ is importing LNG.[130] In 2022 the Turkish Energy Minister said that Turkey and Algeria would create a joint oil and gas exploration company.[131]
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External links
- Energy Outlook 2022 Industrial Development Bank of Turkey
- Energy Market Regulatory Authority
- SHURA Energy Transition Center
- Greenhouse gas from production and refining
- Methane emissions
- Hydrogen strategy (Turkish)Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources