Electricity sector in Turkey
Turkey uses more electricity per person than the global average, but less than the European average, with demand peaking in summer due to air conditioning. Most electricity is generated from coal, gas and hydropower, with hydroelectricity from the east transmitted to big cities in the west. Electricity prices are state-controlled, but wholesale prices are heavily influenced by the cost of imported gas.
Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours
Turkey's
Consumption
Each year, about 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey: this supplies almost a quarter of the total final energy demand,[9]: 19 the rest being from coal, oil and gas.[10] Due to air conditioning demand peaks in summer:[11] with August highest (32 TWh in 2021) and February typically lowest (24 TWh in 2021).[12] Total national consumption divided by the population is under 4,000 kWh a year, much below the average of around 10,000 kWh a year for other OECD countries in Europe,[13][4]: 17 but half as much again as the global average.[14] Shares of energy usage in 2019 totaled 45% for industry, 29% for services and 21% for households.[4]: 16 Consumption is forecast to increase.[15]
As of 2021[update], household electricity consumption is estimated to average 230 kWh a month[16] and is dominated by refrigerators, followed by televisions then washing machines.[17] Space heating and electric vehicles have the biggest potential for demand side response.[18]: 51
Between 2019 and 2024, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion into energy efficiency;
Demand forecasts
Distribution companies, some retail companies, and industrial zones send their demand forecasts to the
Year forecast made | Forecast year | Forecast amount (TWh) | Actual amount[26] | Forecaster |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 2019 | 317[27] | 304 | government |
2018 | 2021 | 322 to 345[28] | 329[1] | academics |
2022 | 2025 | 380[29]: 20 | government | |
2020 | 2030 | 359, 396, 454[4]: 21 | TEİAŞ |
Some official demand forecasts are overestimated,[30][31][32] which could be due to low economic growth.[33][34] In 2019 actual generation was 76% of firm capacity, and overcapacity continued into the early 2020s.[34][35] In 2022 and 2023 demand decreased, partly due to industry’s share of the economy decreasing.[36]: 20
Industry
The share of electricity used in industry is expected to increase at the expense of the fossil fuel share as Turkey moves to more technology manufacturing.[37]: 343 Less coal is being burnt for industry and oil burning remains static.[37]: 343 One projection even shows electricity overtaking gas to become the largest industrial energy source at 30%,[37]: 343 however more efficient lighting and industrial motors, together with policy changes supporting efficiency, could limit demand growth.[37]: 340
Electrification of transport
In 2021, less than 3000 fully electric cars were sold,[38] however production and use of some types of electric vehicles, such as cars manufactured by Togg, may increase demand during the 2020s.[39]: 10 Shura Energy Transition Center, a think tank, has recommended to automatically charge electric cars when plenty of wind and solar power is available.[39]: 19 The architecture of Turkey means that many city dwellers live in apartment blocks without off-street parking: regulations require at least one charger per 50 new parking spaces in shopping malls and public parking lots.[40] Getting old diesel cars and trucks off the road would have health and environmental benefits, but this would require new pollution control legislation,[41] and as of 2021[update] the only commercial electric vehicles planned for mass production are vans.[42] The government aims to end sales of fossil fuel cars and lorries by 2040.[43] Ford hopes to build a factory to make batteries for commercial electric vehicles.[44]
Generation
Of the total 329 TWh of electricity generated in 2021; natural gas produced 42%, coal 26%, hydropower 13%, and wind 10%.
Coal
Turkey's coal is almost all low calorie lignite, but government policy supports its continued use. In contrast, Germany is closing lignite-fired stations under 150 MW.[54] Drought in Turkey is frequent, but thermal power stations use significant amounts of water.[55]
Coal-fired power stations are the largest source ofGas
In 2020, power plants consumed 29% of
Hydropower
Due to changes in rainfall, generation varies considerably from year to year.
Wind
The state-owned Electricity Generation Company (EÜAŞ) has about 20% of the market,[74] and there are many private companies.[75] The highest ever daily share of wind power was 25%, in 2022.[76]
Building new wind farms is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal.[77] According to modelling by Carbon Tracker, new wind will be cheaper than all existing coal plants by 2027.[78][79]Solar
Turkey is located in an advantageous position in the Middle East and Southeast Europe for solar energy, and it is a growing part of renewable energy in the country, with almost 8 GW generating about 4% of the country's electricity. Solar potential is high in Turkey, especially in the south-east and Mediterranean provinces.[80] Conditions for solar power generation are comparable to Spain. In 2020 Turkey ranked 8th in Europe for solar power,[4]: 49 but it could increase far more quickly if subsidies for coal were abolished[81] and the auction system was improved.[82] Every gigawatt of solar power installed would save over US$100 million in gas import costs.[83]
Peak daily generation in 2020 was over 1 TWh in September.[84] According to modelling by Carbon Tracker, new solar power became cheaper than new coal power in 2020,[85] and will become cheaper than existing coal plants in 2023.[86] According to think tank Ember, building new solar and wind power in Turkey is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal.[87] But they say that there are obstacles to building utility-scale solar, such as: lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers, a 50 MW cap on any single solar power plant’s installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long term power purchase agreements for new solar installations.[87] Unlicensed power plants, which are mostly solar, generated about 4% of electricity in 2021.[46]: 13
Geothermal
There are almost 2 gigawatts of electrical geothermal power in Turkey, which is a significant part of renewable energy in Turkey. Geothermal power in Turkey began in the 1970s, in a prototype plant, following systematic exploration of geothermal fields. In the 1980s the pilot facility became the first geothermal power plant. The small-sized geothermal power plant was expanded to the country's biggest in 2013. Over 60 power plants operate in Turkey as of 2020[update],[88] with potential for more.[89] As well as contributing to electricity generation, geothermal energy is also used in direct heating applications. At the end of 2021 Turkey had 1.7 GW installed capacity, the fourth largest in the world after the United States, Indonesia and the Philippines.[90]
There is almost 2 GW of geothermal and sites for much more including enhanced geothermal systems.[91] However carbon dioxide emissions can be high, especially for new plants, so to prevent carbon dioxide dissolved out of the rocks being released into the atmosphere the fluid is sometimes completely reinjected after its heat is used.[92]
Nuclear
Turkey's first nuclear power plant, at Akkuyu, is planned to start generation in 2023, and is expected to last for at least 60 years.[93] The nuclear power debate has a long history, with the 2018 construction start in Mersin Province being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant since 1960.[94] Nuclear power has been criticised, as being very expensive to taxpayers.[95]
Plans for a nuclear power plant at Sinop and another at İğneada have stalled.[96]
Hybrid, distributed and virtual generation
Hybrid generation became more popular in the early 2020s.[97] If distributed generation installed power is under 11 kW, it is only allowed to be connected to the low voltage network, not the high voltage network.[98] The first virtual power plant was created in 2017 with wind, solar and hydropower; and geothermal was added in 2020.[99]
Transmission and storage
The transmission system operator is the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ),[100] which is a state-owned monopoly as of 2022.[4]: 11 It is planned to sell a minority share to the private sector in 2022.[101] Transmission is regulated by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA).[102] The first long-distance transmission line was from Zonguldak to Istanbul in 1952,[103] and as of 2021[update] there are 72,000 km.[104] The grid runs at 400 kV and 154 kV,[105] and there are over 700 transmission grid substations.[106] Transmission costs, including losses and operation costs, are shared equally between producer and consumer.[107]: 70
Reducing grid losses and outages is important, as is improving grid quality.
According to a 2018 study by
The nationwide blackout in 2015 was not caused by a natural disaster, but by the limited capacity and lack of resilience of the main east-west connection whilst it was being maintenanced - leaving it unable to redistribute enough of the eastern hydroelectricity to the high consuming west. It did not greatly affect Van Province as it was supplied from Iran,[120] and the EU interconnection helped restore power.[121] More integration with other countries would increase resilience.[122] New wind and solar in the west and centre of the country is closer to demand and is thus reducing the dependance on high voltage transmission.[123]
Distribution
As part of electricity industry reforms between 2009 and 2013, the ownership of all electricity distribution infrastructure was retained by state owned
There are over a million kilometres of distribution lines, of which about 80% are overhead lines and the rest are underground cables. The average losses across all distribution networks (including both technical and non-technical losses) are around 12%.[126] but in Dicle and Vangölü are over 20%.(cite EPDK 2022) In 2019 TEDAŞ estimated the System Average Interruption Duration Index (OKSÜRE in Turkish) at 1308, which is much worse than neighbouring European countries: however no estimate has been published since then.[127]: 27 Nevertheless at least one distribution company measures it, together with the related frequency index (OKSIK in Turkish).[128]: 73
There are plans for a smart grid.[129] According to the Shura Energy Center, increasing Turkey's proportion of electric cars to 10% by 2030 would smooth distribution, amongst many other benefits.[130]
According to the Chamber of Electrical Engineers, the regional monopolies make excess profits.[131][132][133] Their income is determined by EMRA,[134] as distribution charges are set annually by EMRA.[125]
Resilience
Market
Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST), is the electricity market operator company responsible for the day-ahead and intra-day markets. EXIST was established in 2015 and operates under a license from the Energy Markets Regulatory Authority (EMRA).[139] As of 2022[update] the wholesale price is the same across the country,[140][b] but it has been suggested that price zones should be defined to reflect network congestion, for example in getting run-of-the river hydropower to consumers.[143] The wholesale price is generally lowest in spring, due to moderate temperatures and abundant hydropower.[144]: ?
Although the wholesale market is operated by EXIST;[145] prices are controlled by EUAŞ, the state electricity generation company.[146] Gas-fired power stations set the market price.[147] The National Load and Dispatch Centre prepares forward estimates of demand for each hour, and these are used to guide scheduling of generation 24 hours in advance.[125]
The Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEİAŞ) is the physical operator of the balancing power market and the ancillary services market.[125] Because price is determined at the margin the electricity price is very dependent on the natural gas price.[148] The government has capped the wholesale electricity price at thrice the average of the previous 12 months,[148] which is high enough for gas and imported coal plants to remain in operation even when their fuel costs are high.[46]: 14
Because gas-fired power plants are often the
As of 2021[update], there is a lot of excess generation capacity
Some
Retailing
Although the 2013 Electricity Market Law says that distribution companies cannot retail, most customers buy from retail "arms" of their local distribution companies.
European wiring color codes are used.[166] Schuko plugs (plug type C with 2 round pins, and type F with 2 round pins and 2 earth clips[167]) and sockets are standard, at 230 V[168] and 50 Hz.[169] For public charging of electric vehicles, the European standard Combined Charging System is used.[170] As of 2022, there are no Tesla superchargers.[171]
After purchasing a property in an urban area, earthquake insurance is compulsory before electricity is connected.[172] In case of natural disasters or pandemics the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources may cover the financial costs resulting from the postponement (up to one year) of electricity bills, but not the bill amount itself.[173] As of 2022[update] the VAT rate for residential customers and agricultural irrigation is 8%.[174]
Economics and finance
As elsewhere, new renewables are auctioned.
As of 2019[update], about 15% of power was generated by the public sector.
About half the electricity used in 2019 was generated from local resources.[192] Total import dependency in the power sector was over 50% in 2019.[30] It has, for example, been predicted that more trade would benefit electricity in Bulgaria by stabilizing its price.[193]
The main growth in solar and wind during the 2020s is predicted to be in Renewable Energy Resource Areas(YEKA): these use auctions and include a requirement to manufacture mostly in Turkey.
Capacity payments
The capacity mechanism regulation says that the purpose of the payments to create sufficient installed power capacity, including the spare capacity required for supply security in the electricity market, and/or to maintain reliable installed power capacity for long-term system security.[197][198] The 2021 capacity mechanism budget was 2.6 billion lira (US$ 460 million).[38] Some hydropower plants, plants burning local coal, and plants older than 13 years burning imported fuel are eligible.[46] In 2022 ten hydro plants, several gas power plants and many lignite-fired plants were eligible for the capacity mechanism:[199] and capacity payments included variable cost components and the market exchange price, as well as fixed cost components and the total installed power capacity by source.[198] These payments have been criticised by some economists.[147] A study published in 2023 surveyed experts and found that most wanted the capacity mechanism to be reformed, for example by including demand response or zonal pricing: however policymakers were not keen on raising the price cap.[200]
Feed-in-tariffs
As of 2021[update], feed-in-tariffs in lira per MWh are: wind and solar 320, hydro 400, geothermal 540, and various rates for different types of biomass: for all these there is also a bonus of 80 per MWh if local components are used.[201] Tariffs will apply for 10 years and the local bonus for 5 years.[201] Rates are determined by the presidency,[202] and the scheme replaced the previous USD-denominated feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy.[203] Thus, as in some other countries, the wholesale price of renewable electricity is much less volatile in local currency than the price of fossil fuelled electricity.
End user pricing
The complicated system[204] of prices to end consumers is regulated by the government.[205] A green tariff called YETA (the certificates are called YEK-G) to allow consumers to buy only sustainable electricity was introduced in 2021.[206] The YETA price[4]: 88 is higher than the regular price[4]: 89 by a certain amount per kWh (about 1 lira in 2022).[46]: 35
In 2023 Shura suggested that the electricity consumption tax (ETV or BTV) of 5% residential, was unfairly disadvantaging electricity over gas, for example by taxing electricity powering heat pumps more than gas for heating. They said that taxes and subsidies for residential gas and electricity should at least be equalized.[212]: 17–18
Greenhouse-gas emissions
Unlike other European countries emission intensity has not improved since 1990 and remains over 400 gm of CO2/kWh,[2] around the average for G20 countries.[218] Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal.[219]: 10 According to a 2021 study by several NGOs if coal power subsidies were completely abolished and a carbon price introduced at around US$40 (which is much cheaper than the EU Allowance) then no coal power plants would be profitable and all would close down before 2030.[220] A 2021 decarbonization plan by Istanbul Policy Center, a thinktank, has almost all coal power shutdown by 2035; whereas natural gas plants would continue to run to provide flexibility for greatly increased wind and solar, but at a much lower capacity factor.[221]
The Turkish Solar İndustry Association suggests that building solar plants next to hydropower would help to stabilize output in times of drought. Shura also suggest that excess renewable electricity could be used to produce green hydrogen.[222] Turkey is not aligned with the EU carbon capture and storage directive.[223]
Policy and regulation
As of 2020[update] Turkey's three main policy objectives are to meet forecast increased demand, a predictable market, and to reduce import costs.[224][9] To meet these objectives policy includes increasing generation from solar, wind and domestic coal;[225] and starting to produce nuclear energy. As of 2022[update] some of these generation methods are subsidized - for example EÜAŞ will purchase the forthcoming nuclear power at an agreed price.[163] Coal is heavily subsidized in Turkey. Storage and transmission improvements are also supported - for example increasing the amount of pumped hydro.[226]
The government aims for half of electricity to be from renewable energy by 2023;
In 2023 the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers criticised the just published National Energy plan as amateurish: they said that it forecast generation of 174 TWh in 2035 with 57 GW of fossil fuel power plants but that, in 2021, 215 TWh was generated from 46 GW installed.: 3
History
In 1875 a French company was awarded a 5 year concession to power Istanbul's Üsküdar district, Thessaloniki and Edirne, and was awarded a 4-year concession for electric lighting of several other cities. However, despite the agreement, no progress was made.[234]: 3 The first power station in the Ottoman Empire was a small hydroelectric power station built in 1902 outside Tarsus.[235] Electricity was transmitted to the city centre at high voltage, then distributed to customers at low voltage for their lighting.[234] During this period tenders for power were generally awarded to foreigners, due to lack of Ottoman finance and expertise.[236]: 72, 73
Generating power in Istanbul for tramlines, lighting and the telephone network from 1914, Silahtarağa Power Station (now a museum that is part of SantralIstanbul) was the first large power station.[237][238] By the start of the Turkish Republic in 1923, one in twenty people was supplied with electricity.[237] Between 1925 and 1933, many cities built diesel fired power stations, and a couple were powered by wood gas.[234]: 4
The electricity sector was nationalized in the late 1930s and early 1940s, and by the end of nationalization, almost a quarter of the population was supplied with electricity.[239] However only big cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir received continuous electricity in the 1950s; other cities were electrified only between dusk and 10 or 11 in the evening.[240]: 243
The Turkish Electricity Authority was created in 1970 and consolidated almost all of the sector.[239] By the end of the 20th century, almost all the population was supplied with electricity.[241] Privatization of the electricity sector started in 1984[239] and began "in earnest" in 2004[242] after the Electricity Market Law was passed in 2001.[243]
In 2009 electricity demand fell due to the
Notes
- ^ For example, drought in 2020 caused a generation drop of over 10% compared to the previous year.[70]
- ^ PTF means the Day ahead Market Clearing Price and SMF means the Real time System Marginal Price and AOF means the hourly Weighted Average Price all in (TL/MWh)[141][142]
- TJ), oxidation factor and CO2 emission intensity (t/TJ NCV), respectively, of the main fossil fuels burnt in Turkish power stations were:[214]: 49 & 50, table 3.5, 3.6, 3.7
- lignite: 30, 0.966, 107
- bituminous coal: 27, 0.983, 97
- natural gas: 15, 1, 54
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Further reading
External links
- Markets, generation and consumption short term statistics Energy Exchange Istanbul
- Hourly generation by source for selected day Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation
- Annual generation statistics (in Turkish) Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation
- Retail prices
- Power flow simulator
- Association of Distribution System Operators
- Smart Grid Turkey
- Live carbon emissions from electricity generation electricityMap Live built by Tomorrow