2023–2024 anti-junta military operation in Myanmar
This article is about the rebel operation in northern Myanmar. For the one in southeastern Myanmar, see Operation 1107.
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Bai Suocheng, Wei Huairen, Liu Zhengxiang and other former major leaders of the Kokang Autonomous Region were arrested by the junta on suspicion of Internet fraud and handed over to the Chinese police[2]
1,783 killed, 810 wounded, 967 captured, 4,891 surrendered (Northern Shan State Theatre, per the MNDAA)[20] 1,500+ casualties (as of 13 Nov.; per The Irrawaddy)[21] 298 killed (as of 8 Nov.; per the military)[8] 650+ captured (as of 19 Dec.; per The Irrawaddy)[22][23] 1 FTC-2000G jet trainer shot down [24] 1 Mil Mi-17 helicopter shot down[24]
100+ MNDAA fighters killed (Northern Shan State Theatre, per the MNDAA), other rebel groups unknown[25]
The joint rebel forces launched simultaneous attacks on multiple targets in northern Shan State, targeting the Myanmar Army, the Myanmar Police Force, and other military installations along the border with China.[32][33] The Brotherhood Alliance successfully took control of the strategically important Kokang Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) following their decisive victory in the Battle of Laukkai.[34][35] The offensive has spread outside Shan State across the country to Sagaing Region,[36][37]Chin State, and Rakhine State, and has sparked Operations 1107 and 1111 in the south of the country in Kayah State.[38] Resistance forces across the country captured scores of towns, with the Brotherhood Alliance claiming by 28 November 2023 to have captured over 220 junta positions.[39] The exiled civilian government of Myanmar, the National Unity Government, declared its support for the military offensive, and its armed wing, the People's Defense Force (PDF), has participated in military operations against regime forces.
The surprise offensive's series of victories against the military regime have led observers to call it "by far the most difficult moment" for the regime "since the early days of the coup."[40] The regime has been unable to effectively respond to the wave of losses it has suffered, resorting to indiscriminate shelling and airstrikes to retaliate.[41] The sides agreed to a ceasefire in December, but the agreement quickly collapsed. The sides agreed to another China-brokered ceasefire for northern Shan State on January 11, but the truce is tenuous, with rebel forces charging that the regime has conducted airstrikes in violation of the ceasefire's terms.[42][43] The Arakan Army has continued offensives in its native Rakhine State, which is not covered under the ceasefire.
Background
Ethnic rebellion and conflicts
The major rebel coalition that has fought during Operation 1027 is the
During Myanmar's conflict, the military has struggled to enforce its power over ethnic minority regions, as it mainly recruits from the
Bamar majority population who are mostly unfamiliar with the language and landscapes of ethnic areas. To compensate, it has made deals with some local militias in which the militias agree to be subordinated as Border Guard Forces (BGFs), but have retain large amounts of autonomy. In exchange for following the military's orders "to some extent", the leadership of these groups are able to run businesses.[44]
Following two years of persistent efforts across various regions of Myanmar, the Myanmar military found its resources increasingly strained by late 2023.
Lieutenant General Gun Maw stated in an interview that the conflict had been brought to the KIA's doorstep, necessitating a military counteraction.[46]
Cyber-scamming in Myanmar since 2021
Due to the corruption within the Tatmadaw and the lack of their control on the borderland, many armed groups on both sides began in the fields of mining and trade, but moved towards more illicit business over time, like gambling and cyber-scamming, in which the latter gained the most attention.[44] The cyber-scamming industry has particularly plagued Myanmar since the February 2021 coup. The military junta has worked with Chinese gangs to traffic over 120,000 people into the country. These fraud factories have earned billions of dollars in revenue for the junta and the gangs that operate them.[47] Criminal gangs have trafficked Chinese nationals and others including as Indian, Cambodian, Vietnamese, Thai, Malaysian, Tajik, Filipino and Kyrgyz people through various other Southeast Asian and Central Asian gangs.[48][49][50]
In Northern Myanmar, they were forced to work in inhumane and degrading conditions. According to Vietnamese charity organization Blue Dragon, trafficking victims were forced to work in scamming operations. They were held against their will and forced to sell their organs if they failed to meet quotas.[51] The cyber-scamming militias have been a significant disturbance to Myanmar's neighbor China in particular, from where individuals have been led to Myanmar under false pretenses and then forced into fraud factories.[44] As a result, China has exerted pressure on the regime to end the practice, and had been actively working with the Three Brotherhood Alliance to extricate individuals with pending Chinese warrants.[47][17][19][52] According to an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security council, the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing noted that long-standing tensions and scam call centers along the border were exacerbated by Chinese investment.[citation needed]
On 20 October 2023, a rescue attempt [zh] by prisoners at a cyber-scamming facility in Laukkai within the Kokang SAZ resulted in a massacre in which fleeing prisoners were killed by guards. The facility and the paramilitary forces were under the control of cybercrime ringleader and former pro-military member of parliament Ming Xuechang [zh].[53] Reports allege that upwards of 80 people were killed, and that four undercover Chinese police officers had been buried alive. This incident has been credited with forcing China to tacitly allow anti-junta forces to begin Operation 1027.[54][55]
Timeline
October 2023
27 October
The Three Brotherhood Alliance released a joint statement declaring the start of Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023. The alliance had the combined capability to draw on 15,000 troops.[56] The statement detailed the primary objectives of the operation, being to:
[Combat] the widespread online gambling fraud that has plagued Myanmar, particularly along the China–Myanmar border[57][58]
At 4:00 am, the MNDAA attacked military bases in Kokang and reported that junta forces had been killed and some captured along with their weapons.[59] Reports indicated that the TNLA captured junta's 13 Mile Camp and Microweave Camp on the Namhkam-Namphatka Road in Namhkam Township.[60] The MNDAA reportedly had seized control of the town of Chinshwehaw and blocked the Lashio-Muse Highway and Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw Road to prevent the regime from bringing reinforcements along these routes.[61]
The regime responded with aerial bombardments and heavy shelling.
Hsenwi and some security police stations and militia stations were destroyed.[63] He also admitted that some security forces personnel were killed and injured, but did not provide an exact number. According to Al Jazeera, the German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that about 20 soldiers were killed in an attack on one of the customs offices in Chinshwehaw.[33] A member of Luakkiang's police force reported that 17 police officers were killed after the MNDAA attacked checkpoints.[58] The Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) stated it was involved in the operation alongside the Brotherhood Alliance, which has been training BPLA fighters.[64]
The AA engaged in multiple skirmishes with junta forces in Htigyaing Township, a township bordering northwestern Shan State in Sagaing Region. The AA claimed multiple junta casualties after clashes south of Mt. Mawkun.[65][66]
Nine rebel groups raided a military checkpoint on the Taungtha-Myingyan road in the Taungtha Township. The groups used drones to bomb the base before their assault, and claimed to have killed 20 junta troops. Other rebels ambushed a junta convoy bringing reinforcements, but were forced to withdraw.[67][68]
A child and a woman were killed and at least 5 others were injured due to an artillery strike on Namphatka village in Kutkai Township.[60]
28 October
According to rebel sources, the MNDAA ambushed junta soldiers coming from
China-Myanmar border in the town of Mong Ko. They also claimed to have defeated paratroopers dropped near Chinshwehaw and captured paradropped weaponry.[67] The TNLA claimed to have seized three outposts in Namhkam Township and two outposts in the Lashio area. Junta spokespeople acknowledged losing certain outposts and expressed their desire for peace and stability.[69]
About 600 IDPs from Lashio were displaced by heavy weapons and gunfire through the 27th and 28th. Clashes disrupted roads and villages near Lashio, including the Hopaik toll gate on the Lashio-Muse Highway. However, Lashio itself remained mostly untouched.[70] The Mandalay-Lashio road and the Hopaik Toll Gate, which saw fighting on the 27th, returned to normal on the 28th. Fighting, however, continued to occur further away from Mandalay towards Kyaukme, Hsenwi, and Kutkai.[71]
29 October
Clashes in Htigyaing Township continued into 29 October with the junta dispatching air force planes to engage in the area.[65]
A TNLA-led force, alongside Mandalay PDF forces, attacked a junta camp in Kyaukkyan village, three miles from the town of Nawnghkio. The junta retreated from the camp, moving towards a missile site on the Nawnghkio-Yetsawk road. At the same time, another rebel contingent attacked and captured junta personnel on the Goktwin Bridge on the Nawnghkio-Kyaukme road near the Goteik viaduct cutting off access along the Mandalay-Muse Union Highway.[72] Other TNLA and PDF groups attacked a military unit near Ahtet Nyaung Kone, in Mogok Township.[67]
30 October
Five clashes continued through northern Shan State, including at an outpost in Hsenwi Township and the Hsenwi General Administration Department office. The Brotherhood Alliance further claimed to have captured junta forces in Mongli village, Hsenwi Township, and to have surrounded Nawnghkio Township. By the end of 30 October, the Brotherhood Alliance claimed to have captured a total of 67 army outposts and taken 34 junta personnel as prisoners.[65] The rebel forces were also able to capture two Ukrainian-made MT-LBMSh armored vehicles from the Junta.[73] Four WMA301 105mm fire support vehicles were also destroyed by rebel groups in several days' fighting.[74] The TNLA and MDY-PDF were also able to capture areas around the town of Nawnghkio.[75]
A spokesperson for the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) stated that the group was collaborating with the Brotherhood Alliance as part of the operation, and reaffirmed their shared goal of toppling the military junta.[66] The Alliance also announced that they were cooperating with the KIA in the battles in Sagaing.[68]
31 October
At around 5 am, joint KIA and AA forces attacked Maliyan camp near the Kantawyang [my] junta base on the Myitkyina-Bhamo road in Waingmaw Township. The battle involved airstrikes from the Myanmar Air Force which reportedly destroyed six houses after attacks aimed towards Aungja. The junta lost control of the base to rebel forces in the morning. Heavy weapon firing and aerial attacks continued in the area, including strikes targeted towards Laiza, the headquarters of the KIA.[76] During the attack, the commander of the junta's 387th battalion was killed.[77] The Tatmadaw's 71st Infantry Battalion reportedly arrested around 20 refugees to use as human shields and allegedly mutilated seven of them in Tabayin.[78]
November 2023
1 November
On 1 November, the Junta arrested around 200 foreign workers to use as human shields at the front line of Laukkai.[79]
A SAC convoy advances on Nawnghkio (30 October 2023)
2 November
By 2 November 92 junta bases and four towns had been captured by the Brotherhood Alliance and its allies.[80] It was also reported that 14 civilians had been killed by junta shelling and airstrikes since the start of the operation.[80] The Alliance claimed to be in "complete control" of both Chinshwehaw and Hsenwi.[81] The Three Brotherhood Alliance also imposed a siege on Nawngkhio, blocking junta troops from all of northern Shan.[19]Peng Hseng, a border town east of Muse, also came under alliance control.[82]
3 November
Rebel forces occupied Kawlin's police station on 3 November after simultaneous attacks on at least 10 junta positions in eight townships across Sagaing and Magwe regions as part of the operation. The NUG Ministry of Defense said that at least six junta camps and police stations had been seized by rebel forces in northern Sagaing in Kawlin, Kantbalu, Kyunhla, Wuntho, Kalewa, Kale, Homalin and Tamu townships.[83]
4 November
By 4 November 106 junta bases and four towns has been captured by the anti-junta alliance in the states of Shan and Kachin.[84] Myanmar's junta launched several airstrikes in Kawlin, Sagaing Region, as rebel forces attacked regime strongholds, according to residents.[83] The KIA, AA and ABSDF are fighting alongside PDF and LPDF forces in the Sagaing-Magway front as part of the operation.[85]
During the conflict, a shell landed on the Chinese border, causing the death of one Chinese citizen and multiple injuries to others.[86]
6 November
After assaulting Kawlin for three days, KIA, AA and PDF combined forces were finally able to capture the town.[87][88]Namhkam was also taken by the TNLA. Only one junta base remains on a hill about two miles from the town.[89]AA and MNDAA forces were also able to seize Panlong base in Kunlong Township. Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, commander of the 99th Infantry Division, was killed in the battle.[90][91] It's also reported that the Junta launched daily artillery strikes and air strikes on the city of Laiza as retaliation for its massive losses.[92]
It was reported that more than 20 civilians, including 3 children, had been killed by junta airstrikes and shelling since the beginning of the operation.[93]
7 November
The town of
China-Myanmar border was captured by the MNDAA.[95] Mongko base, one of the most important bases in Northern Shan State, was also captured by the MNDAA. They captured ammunition and other military equipment, including an armored car.[96]
In southeastern Kayah State, the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force launched Operation 1107 in support of Operation 1027,[97] capturing three junta bases in Maesae Township within the day.[98] It was the first skirmish to happen in the region since the start of the operation.
8 November
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing called up all military reservists to prepare for military operations after the high losses experienced in the fighting.[99] Military doctors still studying for degrees have also been called to front-line combat.[100] The TNLA gained control of the last remaining Tatmadaw base in Namhkam, killing 13 junta soldiers while capturing 3 others as well as 30 pieces of ammunition.[101]
9 November
Kunlong suspension bridge
The junta lost control of the city of Kunlong.[102] Junta forces attacked a camp manned by TNLA and MDY-PDF forces near Ommkha village near Nawnghkio with three armored cars. One of the armored cars was destroyed and captured by TNLA/MDY-PDF forces and the two remaining armored cars retreated. The KIA also captured three military bases in Hpakant Township. In Kalewa, the PDF engaged the junta in a battle in which 10 Tatmadaw soldiers were killed, and 50 weapons were seized by the rebels.[103] The same day, the Junta summoned all its reserves into action.[104]
10–11 November
A junta group consisting of about 200 combatants were attacked on their way to Kawlin by local PDF forces on 10 November. The battle lasted for about three hours. The PDF claimed that they had seized about 50 firearms.[105] The MNDAA skirmished with junta forces in Kunlong. A combined force of the PDF, KIA, AA, and ABSDF continued to assault Htigyaing. The junta forces received support from aircraft bombing the town.[106]
On 11 November, it was reported that more than 300 junta soldiers and allied junta-aligned militia members had surrendered to rebel forces since the beginning of the operation.[107]
12 November
The TNLA attacked a Kyinti military base on a bridge near Hsipaw in the morning of 12 November and had completely captured it by 5:30 AM.[108] Military bases on the western bank of the Salween River in Kunlong were taken by the MNDAA and both sides of the town came under its control. Equipment seized by the group included two D-30 howitzers, one 122mm MAM-01 MRLS, one 240mm MAM-02 MRLS, one BTR-3U armoured vehicle, one EE-9 armoured vehicle, one MT-LB armoured vehicle and several mortars.[109][110] The military regime imposed martial law in Kunlong, Kutkai, Muse, Namhkan, Hsenwi, Lashio,[111] Laukkai and Konkyan.[112] The same day, 127 junta soldiers from the 129th Infantry Battalion stationed in Laukkai surrendered to the MNDAA within the city.[113]
13 November
China issued arrest warrants for junta-aligned Ming Xuechang and three other Ming family members for their involvement in online scamming operations.[114] According to The Diplomat, this move signals China's "tacit support for the removal of the Kokang SAZ's leadership".[115] The MNDAA was able to capture more Ukrainian-made armored vehicles.[116] The mansion of the Ming family, in Shiyuanzi Village, Kokang SAZ, was bombed. The MNDAA denied responsibility.[117]
The first fighting in Rakhine since the operation began took place in Rathedaung and Minbya townships, breaking an informal ceasefire that had been in place in the region. The AA reported that it had seized outposts and arrested some officers.[118]
14–15 November
On 14 November, 43 Myanmar Army soldiers attempted to flee across
the border into the Indian state of Mizoram. Most of them were disarmed by the Assam Rifles and sent back to Myanmar.[69][119] According to reports from the MNDAA, they had begun to attack Myanmar Army positions in Mawhtike, capturing two posts and killing 20 regime soldiers.[120]
On 15 November, rebel forces reported that the entire 129th battalion of army forces surrendered to them in Shan State. The surrender of 127 soldiers and 134 family members would mark the largest such surrender since the conflict escalated after the 2021 coup.[121][122] The Junta used air-strikes against refugees in Loikaw.[123] MNDAA rebels captured two M-56А1 105 mm howitzers from junta force positions in Mawhtike.[124]
The State Administration Council further announced that junta-aligned Kokang SAZ chairman Myint Swe would be temporarily replaced by Brigadier General Tun Tun Myint. Tun Tun Myint was previously the commander in charge of northern Shan State operations. The move was suggested to be in anticipation of Operation 1027 moving towards Laukkai.[6]
The 6th light infantry battalion and 425th light infantry battalion of the junta's 66th light infantry division were severely damaged during fighting in Loikaw University, with the battalions' commander and second in command killed in both battalions despite excessive air and artillery support. The remaining 38 soldiers under the command of captain Kaung Myat Ko, the only officer left, surrendered to the KNDF.[125]
16–17 November
On 16 November, the AA seized Pauktaw in Rakhine State, prompting Myanmar's military to launch air strikes and navally bombard on the town.[126]
The same day, cybercrime ringleader Ming Xuechang and his family were arrested by Myanmar junta authorities and handed over to China. Ming Xuechang died in police custody, and the
Bai Xuoqian, former deputy commander of the MNDAA and former head of the Kokang SAZ, was stopped by the Myanmar Army when he tried to leave Kokang.[131]
18 November
The military launched a successful offensive to retake their Sakhan Thit Kone base in Namhkam Township, which had been captured by the TNLA the previous day. The TNLA accused the junta of using chemical weapons during their offensive by dropping bombs which caused
"dizziness, breathlessness, nausea, extreme agitation, fatigue, and low blood oxygen" among its troops.[132] Chemical weapons are illegal under international law and their use would constitute a war crime. The TNLA said they would attempt to gather more conclusive evidence of the attack with technical and laboratory investigations.[133]
23 November
The MNDAA accused the junta of using chemical weapons during an airstrike on a recently-captured junta base. Troops affected by the weapons reportedly suffered from dizziness and vomiting. The MNDAA warned that the junta "could launch more chemical attacks on both civilians and revolutionary forces," and said it was equipping its soldiers to protect them from further chemical attacks.[133]
A drone attack at the Kyin San Kyawt border crossing with China destroyed over 100 cargo trucks and caused over Ks 30,000,000 (around US$14,000,000) in losses. A drone was used to drop bombs on junta soldiers guarding the crossing, which started fires that burned for hours and destroyed goods trapped at the crossing by the outbreak of fighting.[134] No group claimed responsibility for the attack.
24 November
The TNLA retook their Mine Kyat base in Lashio Township after a 28-day battle, seizing heavy equipment, including one D-30howitzer. They had previously abandoned the base after junta airstrikes.[135] The MNDAA and other rebel groups managed to seize four military bases in Hseni Township, northern Shan State after six days of attacks. The rebels claimed that 16 junta soldiers were killed and 31 captured in the battle. The rebels also seized one BTR-3U armoured vehicle, two Soltam M-845P 155 mm howitzers and other weapons and ammunition from the junta bases.[136]
Nine resistance groups jointly raided junta bases in Aung Thayar village, Sagiang Region. The People's Liberation Army of CPB, which participated in the attack, said they had killed over ten and captured seven regime troops, while seven of their own troops were injured.[137]
25 November
Several resistance groups launched a joint attack on junta positions in four villages: Nyaung Kaing, Thee Kone, Zee Phyu Kone, and Tal Thee Taw, with the latter two falling into resistance hands. At least 20 junta and pro-junta militia troops were killed during the attack, the groups claimed.[137]
China announced it would be conducting live-fire military exercises on the border with Myanmar, following the attack at the Kyin San Kyawt border crossing. They said the drills would run until the 28th and aimed to test the "rapid maneuverability, border sealing and fire strike capabilities" of troops stationed in the region.[138]
26 November
An attack by PDFs on a junta checkpoint in the Myingyan township of Mandalay Region killed two regime soldiers, with a follow-up attack killing another. The groups also claimed to have killed eight junta troops using mines in an ambush.[137]
The MNDAA announced that they had captured the Kyin San Kyawt border crossing in Muse District. This was the fourth such border crossing seized during the operation.[139] The crossing was previously targeted in an attack that destroyed around 120 trucks parked at the border.[140]
27 November
On 27 November, the Brotherhood Alliance launched an offensive to seize the 105-Mile Trade Zone, a stretch of border in the Muse District that accounts for a major portion of trade with China. The rebel forces used drones to strike junta positions in the region, with the junta retaliating with heavy shelling and airstrikes that reportedly killed two civilians. Rebel forces seized attacked bases in Kyaukme and Laisho townships, seizing weapons.[141] On the same day, Mandalay PDF said they had carried out a joint attack with the TNLA against a junta camp in Madaya Township, Mandalay. The group claimed that over 15 junta soldiers were killed, but that the resistance forces suffered no casualties.[39]
On 29 November, it was reported that the had MNDAA captured the town of Konkyan in the Kokang SAZ, following the surrender of Light Infantry Battalion 125 of the Tatmadaw.[142] A total of 186 Tatmadaw soldiers and 86 family members surrendered in Konkyan.[143]
Over the second half of November, the MNDAA encircled the town by capturing a number of junta outposts. The junta found it difficult to retain its foothold after losing Chinshwehaw, which was an key entry point into the Kokang SAZ along the main Lashio-China road. On 1 December, the MNDAA started penetrating the Tong Chain neighbourhood in southeastern Laukkai, beginning the Battle of Laukkai.[144]
On the same day, the MNDAA ambushed a battalion of junta troops who had previously fled Konkyan on 29 November. The entire battalion was killed, with casualties numbering between a few dozen and 100+.[145]
4–13 December
On 4 December, the Arakan Army captured the Traunaing outpost from the Tatmadaw in Paletwa Township, Chin State. They seized a D-30 howitzer.[146] On 6 December, the MNDAA captured the military outpost on Four Buddhist Statues Hill immediately south of Laukkai.[147][148] This was the last junta outpost between the Brotherhood Alliance and Laukkai proper.[citation needed]
On 10 December, Chinese authorities issued arrest warrants and offered substantial rewards for the capture of 10 key figures leading telecom fraud rings operating in the Kokang region of Myanmar's Shan State, including former Kokang region chairman
Bai Xuoqian and several pro-junta Kokang militia leaders.[149]
On 13 December, the KIA, along with the All Burma Students' Democratic Front and Indaw PDF, took the town of Maw Luu from junta forces. The junta targeted the town with airstrikes following the town's capture.[150]
15 December
The Ta'ang National Liberation Army seized the town of Namhsan after around two weeks of fighting.[151] The rebels seized two D-30 howitzers and two M-56A1 howitzers from junta forces in Namhsan.[152] The TNLA suffered approximately 200 casualties (49 killed and 145 wounded) while capturing the Sakham Thit Kone stronghold in Namhsan. At least 60 junta troops were killed and more than 150 surrendered to the TNLA.[153] Brigadier General Min Min Tun, commander of the 101st Infantry Division of the Tatmadaw, was also captured by TNLA.[10] The Brotherhood Alliance took control the 105-Mile Myanmar-China Trade Zone and a military base in Muse Township in Shan State, the AA rebels seized a BTR-3U armored vehicle and an MT-LB armored vehicle there.[154]
18–22 December
On 18 December, anti-junta forces fully gained control of
Namkham and the surrounding Namhkam Township.[155][156] On the same day, the Myanmar Air Force launched three airstrikes towards MNDAA troops in Hitn Par Keng, a village directly north of Laukkai after a week of respite during peace talks.[157] On 19 December, the MNDAA gained control of the Yanlonkyaing border gate and the Border Point 125 IDP camp on the Chinese border with Nansan, Yunnan, three north of Laukkai.[158][159]
The junta bombed an internally displaced persons camp in Mantong on 21 December, destroying at least 15 homes and a monastery. This bombing was part of a larger bombing operation in which the air force has bombed Mantong Township more than 180 times.[160] TNLA captured Mantong in the evening of 22 December, completely capturing the Pa Laung Self-Administered Zone.[160] TNLA seized one 155mm Soltam M-71 howitzer from Tatmadaw in Mantong.[161]
26–29 December
In Laukkai, 90 soldiers of the Tatmadaw's 55th Light Infantry Division and BGF troops reportedly surrendered to the MNDAA on 26 December, while another 90 junta troops were killed in previous fighting.[162] On 28 December it was reported that "most" of Laukkai was now under MNDAA control, with junta forces largely abandoning the city.[163]
On 29 December, the TNLA took control of Namtu prompting junta forces to bombard the town.[164]
January 2024
3–7 January
On 3 January, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army claimed to have taken control of the town of Mongngaw in Kyaukme Township in Shan State.[165]The Irrawaddy reported that the Ta'ang also seized a military camp in Nawnghkio Township, with junta forces launching a counterattack in an attempt to retake it.[166]
On 5 January, the MNDAA gained full control of Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, following the mass surrender of the last junta forces and officials within the city.[167][168][169] 2,389 Tatmadaw soldiers, including 6 brigadiers, and 1,601 family members surrendered to MNDAA and were deported back to Lashio.[170] According to a junta spokesperson, the decision was made prioritizing the safety of military families.[171] On the same day, footage appeared on social media suggesting that the United Wa State Army had taken control of Hopang, the nominal capital of the Wa Self-Administered Division, with junta forces losing control of the east bank of the Salween River.[172][173]
On 7 January, the Brotherhood Alliance claimed that it had captured Kutkai and Hsenwi on midnight after seizing junta military posts in the towns, including the headquarters of the 16th Military Operations Command in Hsenwi.[174] The capture of the towns ended sieges that had lasted since the start of the Operation.[175] The Arakan Army captured the Taung Shay Taung and Kyittaw Taung outposts of the Tatmadaw in Rakhine State. According to reports from the Arakan Army, 200 junta soldiers surrendered and the rebels captured 2 M-56А1 howitzers.[176]
replies to a query about the cease-fire at a daily press briefing
On 12 January, the Brotherhood Alliance agreed to a temporary cease-fire inside of North Shan State between the junta forces leading to the end of the operation, after peace talks between the Three Brotherhood Alliance and junta correspondents mediate by China. The peace talks took 3 days and occurred inside Kunming, China.[177][178] However, the very next day, TNLA reported that the junta had broken their ceasefire agreement with airstrikes in various townships in Northern Shan, including Lashio Township and Kyaukme Township. Additionally, there were also attacks in Mogok Township in neighbouring Mandalay Region.[179]
15–24 January
On 15 January, the Arakan Army captured the town of Paletwa in Chin State following fighting since November 13, 2023. AA troops also captured junta Brigadier General Zin Myo Swe, chief of Operations Command Center 19 (MOC-19) based in Mon State, after his forces were defeated in Paletwa Township. In addition, an EE-9 armored vehicle and two WMA301 105mm fire support vehicles of the Tatmadaw were seized by the Arakan Army.[180][181]
On 21 January, the Kachin Independence Army, along with the All Burma Students' Democratic Front and local PDFs, seized the town of Mabein after a three-day siege. The KIA claimed that the junta retaliated by dropping more than 60 bombs on the town and surrounding villages. The town is 50 kilometers north of Momeik, which is also besieged by rebel forces.[182][183]
The Arakan Army took the town of Pauktaw in Rakhine State on 24 January, following a three-month battle. The AA had originally briefly captured the town earlier in the operation, but had been forced out by junta naval bombardment.[184] The Kachin Independence Army captured the base of the Tatmadaw's 123rd Infantry Battalion in Nampaka village, Kutkai Township, thereby cutting off the access from the junta-controlled areas to the border trading city of Muse. The Kachin Independence Army captured a D-30 howitzer and an anti-aircraft gun during the battle.[185]
26–30 January
Fighters from the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLA) and the KNDF attacked the town of Hsi Hseng in Southern Shan State. The PNLA had been a signatory of the National Ceasefire Agreement, but following escalating tensions with the junta, including a skirmish at a PNLA convoy, the group ended their neutrality and declared war against the regime. The battle is the first in Southern Shan State since the operation began.[186][187][188] The Arakan Army announced on 30 January that it was fighting to oust the junta from the coastal city of Ramree in Rakhine State. The junta had reportedly bombarded the town from gunboats for weeks before fighting began. 8,000 of the town's residents have been displaced due to the fighting. The AA claimed that the regime forces used chemical weapons to defend the town, a claim that the junta denies.[189]
Also on 30 January,
Bai Xuoqian was arrested by the junta, which transferred him along with other nine people, including his son Bai Yingcang, to China. Wei Huairen and Liu Zhengxiang were also among those handed over to China.[190]
February 2024
On 7 February, it was reported that the Tatmadaw counter-offensive to retake Kawlin was proceeding and that they were getting closer to the city. The Tatmadaw was supported by air. PDF formations in Kawlin said they were preparing to defend the city.[191] The same day, the Arakan Army took control of Rakhine State's Minbya Township after capturing the last two military battalion headquarters in the township.[192] Colonel Min Min Tun, commander of the 11th Light Infantry Division of the Tatmadaw, was killed during a battle at the base of the 377th Light Infantry Battalion in Mrauk-U Township.[9]
On 9 February, the Arakan Army announced they had captured the city of Mrauk U and the surrounding Mrauk-U Township.[193] During an evacuation attempt by the junta from Kyauktaw town during attacks by the Arakan Army on the same day, three naval landing craft were sunk. This resulted in the death of 700-900 retreating junta soldiers and their family members.[194][195] According to a statement from the Arakan Army, the rebels rescued Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, commander of the 9th Military Operations Command, and some of his soldiers from the river.[9]
On 11 February, pro-junta media reported that the junta had recaptured Kawlin in Sagaing Region from the People’s Defense Force and Kachin Independence Army. The National Unity Government President’s Office spokesperson Kyaw Zaw denied that the Tatmadaw took control of Kawlin but acknowledged that it had entered the town.[196] On 12 February, pro-NUG media acknowledged that junta forces had fully recaptured Kawlin.[197]
Towns siezed by the Arakan Army during Operation 1027
On 15 February, the Arakan Army announced it had fully taken control of Myebon Township, including the town of Myebon.[198]
On 17 February, the Arakan Army destroyed two Tatmadaw MAM-01 MRLSs in Minbya Township, Rakhine State.[199] On 28 February, the Arakan Army reported that 2 armored vehicles were destroyed by fire when the AA intercepted and attacked a Tatmadaw Column that was coming from Sittwe City to Ponnagyun Township in Rakhine State. A video released by the Arakan Army showed that a WMA301 105mm fire support vehicle was destroyed.[200]
March 2024
On 5 March, the Arakan Army reported that it had completely captured the township and city of Ponnagyung. The AA stated that it continued to assualt the townships of Rathedaung and Buthidaung.[201] Tatmadaw tactical commander Colonel Myo Min Ko Ko and Major Saw Htwe were killed in Ponnagyung.[11]
On 17 March, the Arakan Army seized the town of Rathedaung after defeating the three junta battalions stationed in the town. The AA claimed that the junta used forcibly conscripted Rohingya people as human shields during its unsuccessful defense of the town.[203][204]
Impact
The
UNOCHA reported that as of 30 October 2023, over 6,200 individuals have been newly displaced, with around 1,000 of them seeking refuge in forests and more than 5,000 IDPs taking shelter in temporary sites, mostly religious compounds. In Kutkai township, electricity was cut off due to the destruction of power lines during the fighting, and mobile communication services have been disrupted in several townships, including Hsenwi, Kutkai, Muse, Namhkan, and Kokang Self-Administered Zone.[205]Myanmar Now reported that according to local aid workers, over 25,000 people had been displaced by the fighting, with around half fleeing to Namtit in Wa state.[81] As of 21 November, an estimated 335,000 people had been displaced throughout Myanmar as a result of rebel offensives, with hundreds of civilians injured and killed.[28]
The offensive resulted in the halt of cross-border trade with China. Fighting has stopped traffic on all major trade roads to the Chinese border, and the border posts at Muse and Laukkai have been closed. Cargo has been redirected to Loi Je in Kachin State, but the town is too small to handle as much trade as the Northern Shan border, which accounts for 70% of all trade with China. The Irrawaddy estimated that the junta is losing an estimated US$423,000 per day in tax revenue from the stoppage.[206]
As a result of the military operation, the cyber-scamming base in northern Myanmar was heavily damaged, and a large number of Chinese nationals involved were sent back to China for further screening and trial.[207] Small numbers of Thai, Filipino, and Singaporean nationals in Kokang were also evacuated to Bangkok through the Chinese province of Yunnan.[208]
In Rakhine State, the conflict between the regime and the Arakan Army has displaced thousands of people. The destruction has led to food shortages among the population, with people resorting to catching fish from streams to feed themselves and their families. With harvests disrupted by the fighting, food stocks have run low, and the region is reportedly "nearing starvation."[209]
Reactions
On 1 November 2023, the United Wa State Party (UWSP) declared Wa State a neutral zone after the Three Brotherhood Alliance conducted Operation 1027 against the Tatmadaw. The UWSP threatened the use of force against hypothetical anti-junta or Tatmadaw incursions via its military wing the United Wa State Army while promising to aid refugees and other displaced persons.[210]
On 20 November, supporters of the junta staged a protest in Yangon outside City Hall and the Chinese embassy, accusing China of aiding the Brotherhood Alliance and the PDF in their fight against the military regime.[211] China was also accused by the pro-regime protestors, who are members of the Patriotic Monks Union and the Myanmar Nationalist Organization, of purchasing rare earth elements from the KIA for cheap prices.[212]
Analysis
International observers have pointed to the influential role of China as a key factor in the operation's launch, while others have cautioned against reducing the motives of the rebels to simply an extension of China's wishes. China's stance is multifaceted, driven by concerns about cyber-scam centers, the pursuit of favorable concessions from the junta on the
Bamar PDF groups and minority EAO groups combined with widespread revolt that the junta was ill-prepared for.[214] The Brotherhood Alliance has maintained good relations with China, allowing China to play a role in managing the conflict along China's border and along the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Additionally, the operation sourced arms from the United Wa State Army, a neutral EAO in Shan State whose weapons manufacturing has been historically restricted by China. Reports suggest that loosening these restrictions have made the operation possible.[215] According to the TNLA, China also reached out for cooperation to take down the fraud group shortly before the operation.[216]
Analysts have highlighted that the cooperation between the PDFs and EAOs during Operation 1027 is a continuation of Myanmar's
Civil Disobedience Movement, and the adoption of drone warfare tactics, a strategy that has been notably utilized by the PDF.[217] Additionally, experts underscore the autonomy and strategic motivations of the EAOs, advocating for an interpretation of the operation as a component of a larger national movement.[214] In this context, Operation 1027 is seen not as a byproduct of external forces like Chinese intervention, but rather as a logical extension of the ongoing struggle within Myanmar.[217]
The
China-Myanmar relations from its focus on disrupting the opening of a major bridge in Kunlong Township and the Union highway overland trade in general.[218]
^"【有片】緬北「1020」屠殺事件軍閥首腦 前撣邦議員明學昌遭中國公安通緝" [Developing: Former Shan State Legislator, Ming Xuechang, is Wanted by Chinese Authorities for Allegedly Perpetrating the "October 20th Massacre" as a Northern Myanmar Crime Boss.]. Up Media (in Chinese (Taiwan)). 13 November 2023. Archived from the original on 14 November 2023. Retrieved 17 November 2023.
^"緬北衝突升級據報有炮彈落入中國邊界釀死傷 北京強烈不滿" [Myanmar's conflict escalates as reports of deaths and injuries resulting from shells landing on Chinese border come out. Beijing shows extreme dissatisfaction.]. TVB News (in Chinese (Hong Kong)). Archived from the original on 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
^"最新消息！缅北电诈头目明学昌，已自杀身亡". National Business Daily (in Chinese (China)). 17 November 2023. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023. Retrieved 17 November 2023.
^"缅北"四大家族"之首头目白所成出逃时被拦" [Head of Northern Myanmar's "Four Big Families," Bai Suocheng, Blocked from Leaving the Country]. Yangcheng Evening News (in Chinese (China)). 17 November 2023. Archived from the original on 18 November 2023. Retrieved 18 November 2023.
^ETtoday (20 November 2023). "緬甸詐騙營｜大量疑犯移交內地 多地高鐵站現「蒙頭排排企」奇景" [Myanmar Scamming Operations: Multiple Suspects Transported to Mainland China. Marvelous Sight of Hooded and Standing Suspects Lined up at a High-Speed Train Station]. 香港01 (in Chinese (Hong Kong)). Archived from the original on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
Kokang Big Four Families (remnants of their militias)
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