Pacific Meridional Mode

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North Pacific. In its positive state, it is characterized by the coupling of weaker trade winds in the northeast Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Baja California with decreased evaporation over the ocean, thus increasing sea surface temperatures (SST); and the reverse during its negative state. This coupling develops during the winter months and spreads southwestward towards the equator and the central and western Pacific during spring, until it reaches the Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ), which tends to shift north in response to a positive PMM.

The

Arctic sea ice
have also been proposed as triggers for PMM events.

The PMM is not the same thing as the

South Pacific Ocean
has a PMM-like mode known as the "South Pacific Meridional Mode" (SPMM) that also influences the ENSO cycle.

In the early 21st century, the intensity of the

anthropogenic global warming, PMM activity is likely to increase, and some scientists have proposed that a loss of Antarctic and especially Arctic
sea ice will induce future positive PMM events.

Concept

The existence and properties of the Pacific Meridional Mode were proposed by Chiang and Vimont in 2004.

evaporative cooling,[6] and the ITCZ is displaced northward.[7] Mathematically, the PMM is often defined by maximum covariance analysis of three-month mean SST and wind anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific, with a focus on the northern hemisphere (20°S-30°N, 175°E-85°W) and by removing the ENSO index through linear regression.[8]

The PMM is most intense during the months of January through May.[2] Wind anomalies peak in February and SST anomalies in March.[6] The PMM responses tend to persist into late summer and autumn through interactions with the ITCZ, which reaches its highest latitude and thus strongest interaction with the PMM during these seasons.[9]

Generally, the PMM does not extend farther south than the ITCZ and thus tends not to reach the equator as the ITCZ is normally in the northern hemisphere.[10] This is because the wind-SST feedback operates mostly when the wind anomaly is opposite to the climatological mean wind. This is not the case south of the ITCZ where mean winds come from the south.[11] It is also a primarily ocean mixed layer process, with oceanic dynamics playing a minor role.[9]

Other modes

In the North Pacific Ocean, the "Victoria mode" is another SST pattern that extends across the entire North Pacific, unlike the more regionally limited PMM

climate oscillation, the "North Pacific Mode", resembles the PMM.[16]

The PMM is distinct from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO),[2] which is the principal climate variation in the Pacific Ocean.[17] The two climate modes are not easily separated, however,[18] and they both act to induce decadal climate variations in the Pacific.[19][20] Separating the Pacific decadal oscillation/Interdecadal Pacific oscillation from PMM is also difficult.[21]

Triggers

The PMM appears to be mainly a consequence of

climate forcing in the extratropics[22] albeit with influence from the atmospheric background state.[6] The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)—the atmospheric counterpart of the North Pacific Gyre Mode— can trigger PMM events[23] mainly via SST anomalies off the coast of Baja California.[24] The mid-latitude jet stream[25] and, according to Tseng et al. 2020, the East Asian winter monsoon can modulate the NPO-PMM connection.[26]

Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean can favour the onset of negative PMM through

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and of the negative state of the so-called "North Atlantic Tripole". The negative "North Atlantic Tripole" state features warm SST anomalies in the subpolar and tropical and cold SST anomalies in the subtropical North Atlantic.[29] This last interaction has become important since the 1990.[30]

The "North American Dipole" is an alternating pattern of

atmospheric pressure anomalies over North America, with positive anomalies over the Caribbean and its surroundings and negative anomalies over the Labrador Sea, that is strongest during winter.[31] A positive North American Dipole is often associated with the development of a positive PMM during the subsequent spring.[19] This occurs via the Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans, being cooled or warmed by the positive North American Dipole.[32] The cooling Tropical Atlantic induces anticyclonic airflow anomalies over the East Pacific, which in turn oppose the trade winds and trigger a positive PMM.[33]

Other mechanisms have been described:

There is little study on whether ENSO induces PMM changes[18] with research in 2011, 2018 and 2023 suggesting that positive ENSO events could trigger negative PMM events and less commonly, negative ENSO events positive PMM events,[48][49] while Capotondi et al. (2019) proposed that SST anomalies in the west-central Pacific can induce warming along the West Coast resembling that of the PMM.[50]

Growth and demise

Progression of a PMM event in 2014-2015

Variations in the strength of the

insolation during spring facilitates the growth of PMM events.[6]

Cross-equatorial winds triggered by temperature gradients between the hemisphere facilitate the development of the PMM. As they cross the equator, the Coriolis force deflects them into a direction opposite to that of the trade winds, weakening them. In turn, the ~PMM facilitates the development of cross-equatorial winds, generating a positive feedback,[6] especially since the cross-equatorial winds act to trigger a cooling response in the southern hemisphere[9] and according to Wu et al. (2009) along the equator.[54]

Cloud albedo feedbacks enhance the growth of the PMM, while ocean transport hinders it.[55] According to Wu et al. (2009), turbulent heat fluxes act to dissipate the originating SST anomaly.[52] After August, westerly winds south of the ITCZ act to dissipate SST anomalies.[54]

Effects

Teleconnections of PMM

The PMM is the major pathway through which the extratropics influence tropical climate in the Pacific Ocean.[8] PMM variations influence tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.[18]

Among the phenomena associated with the PMM are:

  • A PMM event in 2014 significantly influenced the 2013–2015 North Pacific marine heatwave, which had significant impacts on the ocean off the west coast of North America.[18] Amaya et al. (2020) proposed that a positive PMM state in 2019 similarly enhanced the 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave through an ITCZ shift and resulting alterations in the atmospheric circulation.[56] Vice versa, Chen, Shi and Lin (2021) proposed that certain "blob" events can trigger a positive PMM.[57]
  • The PMM-like coupling between SST and wind anomalies may control the mean latitude of the ITCZ.[18]
  • The PMM may act to dampen low-frequency climate variations in the tropics.[58]
  • Positive PMM weakens the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone.[59]
  • The PMM may alter the behaviours of the East Pacific oxygen minimum zones.[60]

Other suggested correlations:

Whether the PMM has effects on the Madden–Julian oscillation or on equatorial Kelvin waves is largely unstudied,[83] and any connection between PMM and the Indian Ocean Dipole is unclear.[84]

Precipitation

The PMM alters precipitation in Asia.

Yangtze River valley of China[59][88] as they emanate from the PMM region westward and interact with the jet stream.[89] Precipitation increases in northern and southwestern China and declines over western-central China and the lower Yangtze River valley.[90] According to Li and Ma (2011), PMM-induced ITCZ variations trigger the circumglobal teleconnection.[91] Kao, Hung and Hong (2018) identified a correlation between precipitation over Taiwan and the PMM.[92]

Interactions between PMM and the

droughts there.[94] Son et al. (2021) proposed that the PMM is part of a cycle of climate variability in the North Pacific that imparts a 5-7 year long cycle to wildfire activity in California.[95]

A positive correlation exists between precipitation[96] in eastern and Amazonian South America and the PMM.[85] This does not appear to be due entirely to atmospheric moisture transport, as precipitation increases even in parts of South America where moisture convergence declines,[97] and the effect is much stronger during boreal summer.[98] Seiler, Hutjes and Kabat (2013) did not find a correlation between Bolivian climate and the PMM.[99]

Zhang, Villarini and Vecchi (2019) found that positive PMM causes drought over Australia and the Maritime Continent. This is mainly due to the excitation of ENSO variability by the PMM,[100] which in turn induces anomalies in moisture transport,[101] and has been proposed as a predictor of Australian droughts.[102]

ENSO

Much of the attention directed at the PMM mode is due to its potential as a precursor of ENSO events.[103] PMM events in spring are a major predictor of subsequent ENSO state. Mechanistically, PMM influences ENSO state through several pathways:[8]

Positive PMM events result in wind

El Niño conditions and westerly wind bursts, and also modulate sub-surface ocean heat content associated with El Niño development.[106] They further suggest the PMM might influence the seasonality of El Niño events, as PMM events occur mainly during spring.[107]

The PMM induces mainly warm events (

2014–16 El Niño event may have been a consequence of the positive PMM that year,[119] and Paek, Yu and Qian (2017) explained the sustained SST anomalies in the central Pacific during that year with the prolonged positive PMM conditions.[120] Stuecker (2018) proposed that CP Niño and PMM events are inherently coupled and enhance each other[121] through teleconnections involving the Aleutian Low, and that there is no actual relationship between PMM and East Pacific El Niño.[122]

The PMM also influences the end of an ENSO event, in particular the development of multi-year ENSO events.[123] For La Niña, Park et al. (2020) proposed that the development of a negative PMM in the spring of the year following a La Niña is strongly correlated both in observations and models with the redevelopment of La Niña in the subsequent winter, while a positive PMM is associated with a single-year La Niña.[124] He et al. (2020) identified the persistence of a positive PMM-like SST pattern as a mechanism that impedes the genesis of La Niña after a Central Pacific El Niño event.[125] Park et al. (2021) proposed that during multi-year La Niña, the PMM hinders the recharge of heat in the West Pacific and thus allows the recurrence of La Niña.[126] According to Shi et al. 2023, the extension of negative PMM associated SST anomalies helped maintain the 2020-23 La Niña.[127]

Not all PMM events trigger subsequent ENSO events,[4] a phenomenon that appears to be caused by varying SST patterns according to Zhao et al. (2020)[128] In the so-called "East PMM" the SST anomalies stay off the equatorial Pacific and are flanked by cold SST anomalies in the tropical East Pacific and impede El Niño development, while in the "West PMM", they extend into the Western Pacific and trigger winds favourable to El Niño development.[129] The source of this variance is unclear but may relate to forcings from the Atlantic Ocean and diversity in the North Pacific Oscillation.[130] There appear to be decadal cycles in the PMM-ENSO teleconnection.[131] The NPO can induce ENSO also through a separate pathway via West Pacific SST anomalies.[132] Separating SST anomalies caused by ENSO from these caused by PMM can be difficult.[103]

Tropical cyclones

relative humidity and wind shear,[23][134] which shift typhoon genesis east during positive and west during negative PMM events.[135] It is also due to a more southeastward genesis location,[136] however, which lengthens the time that typhoons have to intensify.[137] Zhang et al. (2016) identified a positive correlation between West Pacific accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the PMM.[138] Zuo et al. (2018) proposed that positive PMM events can facilitate an early onset of typhoon seasons through increased genesis in the eastern West Pacific.[139] Gao et al. (2018) found an increased occurrence of intense typhoons during positive PMM years, both in absolute terms and relative to the average number of typhoons.[140] The earliest typhoon genesis also occurs earlier in positive PMM years.[136] The effect of PMM is seasonal, being concentrated mainly in spring and autumn while summer TC occurrence does not change.[141] The changes in typhoon activity are induced mainly by the central tropical Pacific manifestation of PMM, not by the eastern subtropical Pacific manifestation,[142] and also by Central Pacific El Niño events.[143]

Zhan et al. (2017) correlated the frequent occurrence of intense typhoons in 1994, 2004, 2015 and 2016 with positive PMM events in those years.

2016 typhoon season compared to the 1998 typhoon season was due to the positive PMM state in 2016.[145] A positive PMM event enhanced the 2018 Pacific hurricane season[146] and the 2018 Pacific typhoon season that year,[142] and during October of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season.[147]

The effect of PMM also extends to the Atlantic and East Pacific:[96]

Similar phenomena in other oceans

Similar couple SST-wind anomalies have been documented in other oceans, such as the

south Atlantic Ocean, and are hypothesized to play a role in the onset of ENSO events.[155] The Atlantic Ocean counterpart is known as the Atlantic Meridional Mode and operates similarly.[156]

South Pacific Meridional Mode

The "South Pacific Meridional Mode" (SPMM) is an analogous climate mode in the south Pacific;[22] Zhang, Clement and Di Nezio proposed its existence in 2014[157] and it operates in a nearly identical manner to the northern hemisphere PMM[158] albeit according to You and Furtado (2018) with SST anomalies peaking during (austral) summer and wind anomalies during (austral) winter.[159] According to Middlemas et al. (2019), cloud radiative feedbacks counteract the persistence of SPMM.[160] The SPMM has been further related to a different climate mode known as the "South Pacific Quadrupole"[161] and the "South Pacific subtropical dipole mode".[11]

Unlike the PMM, the South Pacific Meridional Mode has a more extensive influence on the Pacific Ocean than the northern PMM, by impacting the equator instead of remaining within the southern hemisphere,[162] for example, and favouring the onset of "canonical" East Pacific El Niño events instead of Central Pacific El Niño events like PMM.[163] This is because the southern trade winds in the east Pacific cross the equator into the northern hemisphere and can thus "transport" the effects of the South Pacific Meridional Mode northward. Ocean dynamics in the cold tongue region may also play a role.[164][114] The exact relation between SPMM and ENSO onset is still unclear.[163] The failure of an expected El Niño event to develop in 2014 has been explained by an unfavourable state of the SPMM in that year.[165] Apart from ENSO development, the SPMM has impacts on the Chilean Desventuradas Islands and Juan Fernandez Island according to Dewitte et al. (2021).[166] Kim et al. (2022) proposed that cooling in the Southern Ocean can force a negative SPMM state.[167]

PMM variations

The activity of the PMM appears to fluctuate over decadal timescales. Decadal cycles in PMM strength may be a function of two-way interactions between the tropics and the extratropics.[163]

PMM variability is not constant. Both the mean climate state—in particular the strength of the ocean surface heat flux variations caused by wind changes and the latitude of the ITCZ—and the storminess in the extratropics influence its variability.

Jaluit in the Marshall Islands and in the South China Sea.[135]

There is evidence that PMM variability has increased between 1948 and 2018

global warming.[174] In recent decades, the connection between the PMM and NPO has increased.[25] Increased PMM activity between 1982 and 2015 has suppressed ENSO variance and caused it to shift westward through an increased strength of southerly winds over the South Pacific.[175]

Dima, Lohann and Rimbu (2015) proposed that the

Atlantic Warm Pool.[179] Yu et al. (2015) argued that the increased PMM variability forced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is responsible for the increased frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events after the 1990s.[180][181]

PMM and anthropogenic climate change

Some climate models predict the feedback between wind and SST anomalies will increase because of

marine heatwaves both in and out of the North Pacific Ocean, with concomitant ecological impacts.[185]

Fosu, He and Liguori (2020) proposed that increasing SSTs in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans can induce a negative PMM-like response in the Pacific Ocean,

global warming since 1990.[191] England et al. (2020) described the development of positive PMM and SPMM-like SST anomalies in response to a loss of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice in the late 21st century.[192] Orihuela-Pinto et al. (2022) noted a weakening of PMM variability after a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.[193]

Name and use

Chiang and Vimont (2004) coined the name "Pacific Meridional Mode" as an analogy to the "Atlantic Meridional Mode";[1][51] both refer to the north–south structure of the SST gradients and ITCZ latitude anomalies.[2] It is sometimes known as the "North Pacific Meridional Mode"[51] or "Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode".[194]

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Sources

External links
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