Talk:U.S. presidential election, 2008/Archive 1

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When did Michael Bloomberg come into this picture? Didn't the guy just switch parties to run for Mayor? His loyalty to the Republican Party is unproven, not to mention his liberal views. I doubt they would ever think of nominating him. --Jiang 23:21, 23 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Maybe the list should be left out entirely. The article itself says such predictions would be useless. --Jiang 23:43, 23 Dec 2003 (UTC)

No, the article doesn't say useless, it says tentative, which is correct. --Mcarling 23:49, 23 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Or rather, "difficult". --Jiang 23:52, 23 Dec 2003 (UTC)

The most widely-discussed candidate at this point is Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, whom the article doesn't even mention. John Ashcroft, though unelectable, is also talked about as the candidate of the Far Right.

As to Giuliani or Colin Powell, I think a great deal depends on the outcome of this year's election. If Bush is re-elected, I think it will be somebody like Frist or Owens. If Kerry wins, though, I think the Republicans will be infected with a visceral desire to "Bush" him. In that case, a pro-choice candidate like Rudy Giuliani or Colin Powell or Tom Ridge might well become acceptable on the ground of electability to people who otherwise wouldn't support him.

If Bush is re-elected and Cheney steps down in mid-term, of course, the new Veep will automatically become the front-runner

I reshuffled the list of potentials in party affiliation, creating three categories, with one being for "Other Parties and independents" which I hope is respectful enough. To me, it makes it easier to see the potential races for the nominations. This is fun. -- Decumanus 09:35, 7 Feb 2004 (UTC)

also added Jeb and Harold Ford Jr., who if you see if him on tv, you can see how people are going to be talking about this guy a few years down the road for higher office. See [1] A bit young this time around, but I think his name will be thrown about, with implications for 2012 and beyond. I should add: I see him as a potential candidate, not a potential nominee. There's obviously a big difference. OK I added two three names. That's all the speculating I'm going to do about this thing for a while.-- Decumanus 09:46, 7 Feb 2004 (UTC)

Do we really think a 38 year old (in 2008) Congressman without a strong national reputation will even be a potential candidate in 2008? I agree with after 2012, when he'll be 42 and possibly a Senator or Governor, but a 38 year old Congressman? Isn't that a bit of a reach, even for a list of potentials? --Xinoph 16:13, Mar 25, 2004 (UTC)

I'll believe that an African American can be elected statewide in Tennessee when I see it. Until then, he's in the highest office that he can hold. When was the last time that a House member was nominated by a national party for President?

Rlquall 13:37, 9 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I added the following Democrats to the potential candidates section: U.S. Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, also a former Governor U.S. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, co-sponsor of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Governor

I don't know, but, I wonder if in Barbour's running for governor of Mississippi, he may be trying to set up a potential run for the presidency. After all, most Presidents have been a governor at some time or another earlier in their political careers. With that in mind, I added Barbour's name to the list.

What if Bush wins in 2004, and in 2008 Florida Governor Bush runs against Hillary Clinton? I think It is absolutely possible.

Armen Abelyan

Jeb Bush/Bill Frist ticket vs John Edwards/Wes Clark ticket

Bush will win re-election, thus setting up a non-incumbent election in 08. I also predict that Jeb's Bush name will stir up the Republican base, and Jeb's popularity in Florida will win him the Presidency. Bill Frist would be the perfect running-mate for Jeb.

I've added short biographical lines to the possible candidates list. I thought this would be an easy way for people to make their own decisions about whether a candidate is possible or plausible merely by looking at this page, and not pawing through all the biographical articles. In all cases I have listed only their most recent (or currently held) office; if they held that office in the past, I have indicated dates. Xinoph 15:06, Sep 4, 2004 (UTC)

Ruty Gulinony for president becuase of his political backround and the job that he did in New York after the terrorist attack.I think he will be the best candidate for the job.

There is zero chance that Ashcroft will be a presidential candidate. First, he was defeated for reelection to the US Senate in what should have been a safe Republican seat by a dead guy. Second, he is possibly the most unpopular political figure in the US.

Exactly what I was thinking. While the major parties certainly aren't above nominating bad choices, Ashcroft goes beyond just "bad" as a choice. Even if he were stupid enough to run for nomination, even Republicans don't like him -- he would never be nominated.

--- Ashcroft as VP, especially after a terrorist attack on the US is more likely that some would like to consider, I'll wager ---

Trying to speculate about who the Democratic candidate might be before we know whether or not the incumbent will be a Democrat is premature, at best. On the Republican side, there is an overwhelming likelihood that McCain will be the nominee. The current lists portray a wholly inaccurate picture by obscuring these facts. I propose that the candidate lists be removed, at least until after the 2004 election.

Yes, but it's a handy resource for do-it-yourself political commentators :-) And it's fun to maintain. --zenohockey 01:22, 15 Sep 2004 (UTC)

And the "overwhelming likelihood that McCain will be the nominee" would be awfully POV, too. He's anathema to many religious conservatives, and they tend to play hugely in Republican primaries. And many serious commentators would give edges to various other candidates, notably Giuliani or Jeb Bush. 64.229.35.161 02:48, 18 Sep 2004 (UTC)

Another point about McCain -- he will be 72 years old in 2008. Reagan aside, that's pretty old for a presidential race. I doubt he'd really be up for it. (I tend to like McCain myself, but I think 2000 was his chance, sadly.) Acheron 20:00, 5 Nov 2004 (UTC)

"If George W. Bush won re-election in 2004, and sentiments across party lines looked favorably on a contest between him and Bill Clinton in 2008, a change to this term limit might find support."

Bush for 8 more years? Why not, fine by me.

This would require a constitutional amendment, which could only pass with overwhelming public support. The chances are remote. Mcarling 9:09, 9 Sep 2004 (UTC)

I'm not sure if he should go on the speculative candidates list, but given the talk that's been going around recently about a constitutional amendment to allow foreign-born candidates, it's entirely possible that he could be considered for 2008. TheProject 04:36, 2 Nov 2004 (UTC)

And here I was waiting for T4 *pouts* Daddydog 06:46, 5 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I don't think this should be in the article. Cause afterall- most Presidential candidates say the same thing before they run. With that logic- Guilani, Frist, and Owens have to be taken off the list too. All are widely considered to be the GOP frontrunners.

Of course no one knows who it will be this early. But Jeb may throw his hat in yet, you never know. Daddydog 06:49, 5 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I've been bold and done this. (172.186.42.31 19:09, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC))

I added the section and I disagree with the removal of the list. It should be there. This is a list of potential candidates. Jeb Bush nor Dick Cheney is a potential candidate, for both have declared not to seek the presidency. Therefore, they should not be on the list. However, to make clear that they were not simply "forgotten", we need a list of candidates who declared *not* to run. That's what this list is for. I'll

Gerritholl

13:17, 7 Nov 2004 (UTC)

And yet, in politics, simply declaring that you will not run does not necessarily mean you are not a potential candidate. - Nat Krause 13:32, 7 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I think that the list should be included for that very reason - potential candidates should be listed in this article, yet we should note that they've said that they're not running. --Goobergunch 17:35, 7 Nov 2004 (UTC)

Fair enough. I've moved two other refused Republicans, plus the first two refused Dems (Obama and Hillary). Let's see if any of them change their minds over the next three and a bit year. (172.202.9.48 18:30, 7 Nov 2004 (UTC))

Just because a candidate says he isn't running doesn't mean it's true. Sometimes a candidate can have many reasons for saying that- not wanting the surprise to leak out, wanting to leave the base in suspense, etc.

BTW- Bill Owens and Bill Frist have both said they wont run. Based on various interviews I saw them both do on the major cable news networks. If you take all these candidates off the list (Giuliani, Frist, Owens, Pataki, Jeb, McCain- if you take all these guys off, the Republicans have no one to run). Daddydog 22:13, 7 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I believe the "2008- if Kerry wins" scenario should be taken off right about now. Daddydog 06:51, 5 Nov 2004 (UTC)

John Thune for president?!That's a bit joke!I think we should remove him from this list.Everyone agree?

John Thune is the most stupid idiot in the world.

I love Tom Daschle.

Hi, I've moved the following section from the article, as it has nothing to do with 2008.

Moved to

U.S. presidential election

I moved the last revision of this extant on our page before john k removed it again tonight to

A major turnover in each of these offices will occur in gubernatorial and congressional elections due in 2006, which could see new potential challengers emerging or present challengers facing new circumstances.

Among the past upsets and unexpected candidates were the following:

• Abraham Lincoln was a little-known Congressman from Illinois when he arrived in New York City for the Republican Convention in 1860. His speech at the Cooper Union immediately catapulted him into the nomination. The photographs of him taken by Matthew Brady in his signature tophat before his speech were distributed to newspapers around the country, making him an instant nationwide celebrity. The current nominating process makes convention surprises like this extremely unlikely.
• presidential election of 1920
  . Considered the last true "dark horse" candidate, he emerged from complete obscurity to become president in less than six months.
• presidential election of 1924
  .
• Many people predicted that the
  Alfred M. Landon
  in a landslide.
• In
  Thomas Dewey
  seen as the certain victor. This prediction, however, was largely based on telephone polling at a time when there was still a statistically very significant proportion of the population who did not have telephones, and who generally favored Truman.
• Most Republican insiders, and many other observers, in
  1952 felt that "Mr. Republican" Robert Taft would easily turn back the challenge of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
  , previously an apolitical soldier who had never so much as even voted; however it was "Ike", not Taft, who went on the the Republican presidential nomination and won subsequent election.
• In
  Lyndon Johnson
  in the general election.
• Following his defeat in the
  Lyndon Johnson to drop out of the 1968 race. These events resulted in an electoral battle that no one had expected. In mid-1967 the conventional wisdom was that Michigan governor George Romney would be the Republican nominee, or that New York governor Nelson Rockerfeller would finally be successful in obtaining the nomination on his third attempt. It hardly seemed likely that Romney would drop out of the race in December, 1967, three months before the first primary was held in New Hampshire, or that Rockefeller would again be overwhelmed in the primaries by the unsucessful nominee from eight years prior. Later the "conventional wisdom" became that George Wallace, Democratic governor of Alabama running for President on the ticket of his self-created American Independent Party, would carry most or all of the eleven states of the old Confederacy, probably forcing the election into the United States House of Representatives
  and becoming something of a "kingmaker" who could make strong demands upon the major party candidates in exchange for Southern support. However, in the end he wound up receiving only about 13% of the popular vote and 46 electoral votes, which was not enough to force the election into the House or otherwise disrupt anything about Nixon's plurality popular vote win and large Electoral College majority.
• In
  Hubert H. Humphrey. Few thought that it would be George McGovern, a Senator from a state with only three electoral votes (South Dakota
  ) which usually supported Republicans in presidential elections, and who was little-known by the public at large outside of Democratic Party inner circles until the 1972 primary season.
• After the
  1980 election
  revealed just the depth to which this scandal and the damage it had done to his reputation had lingered, and the general public's perception of him of being, unlike his brothers, an "ultraliberal", Kennedy has never again sought the presidency.
• Donna Rice affair in 1987
  .
• 1988 election
  until his challenge was launched.
• After the 1988 election,
  1992 election. His long-winded and widely ridiculed opening night address at the 1988 Democratic National Convention was generally thought to destroyed whatever small amount of credibility he might have possessed at the national level. At the time, many people believed that New York governor Mario Cuomo would be Democratic candidate in 1992. When the Gennifer Flowers
  affair was then exposed in early 1992, it was at first assumed that it would destroy Clinton's chance for the nomination in the same way that the Donna Rice affair had destroyed those of Gary Hart five years previously.
• Paul Tsongas, Bill Clinton's main challenger for the 1992 nomination, was a little known former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts at the start of the 1992 campaign.
• 1992 presidential election due to his record approval ratings in the wake of the Gulf War
  .
• 2004 presidential election, but his campaign fizzled after stunning surges from John Kerry and John Edwards
  in the weeks prior to the earliest primaries.

• Herbert Hoover in 1928. Although never elected to office, he had served as Secretary of Commerce and was widely known as an "engineering genius" for his relief efforts in Europe in World War I. He was widely considered as Coolidge's heir apparent who would continue the prosperity of the 1920s.
• Franklin Roosevelt in the waning days of World War II in 1944, he was later considered the frontrunner for the nomination in 1948
  .
• Dwight Eisenhower
  .
• Richard Nixon in 1960, the sitting Vice President.
• Lyndon Johnson
  , who later became Kennedy's Vice President.
• Robert Kennedy, entered the race late but was assassinated after winning the California
  Primary less than two months before the convention.
• Ronald Reagan in 1980. He had mounted a serious and hard-fought challenge to Gerald Ford in 1976. Early in the campaign, however, few anticipated his landslide victory over Jimmy Carter.
• Walter Mondale in 1984, former Vice President, who turned back the unexpected challenge from Gary Hart.
• George H.W. Bush in 1988, the sitting Vice President. Although he received an early challenge from televangelist Pat Robertson
  , he drive for the nomination was never seriously threatened.
• Al Gore in 2000, the sitting Vice President, who turned back a challenge from Senator Bill Bradley.
• George W. Bush in 2000. His early heavyweight status was based partly on name recognition. He received the lion's share of early fundraising support in the Republican Party in 1999 and later turned back a serious challenge from John McCain to seal the nomination on Super Tuesday in March 2000.
• John F. Kerry in 2004. His early frontrunner status was due to several factors: his lengthy Senate career, his inclusion in 2000 on Al Gore's VP "short list", and his well-known military service in Vietnam. In the pre-voting, fundraising phase of the primary process, his campaign stalled and Vermont Governor Howard Dean became the leading candidate in the eyes of the media and many enthusiastic volunteers. Kerry reshuffled his campaign staff, won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire
  primary, and almost every primary thereafter.

Essentially, these sentences don't make an argument. They convey no information that would be either essential or informative. --Jiang 01:03, 10 Nov 2004 (UTC)

I wrote that essentially to caution against the plague of extremely subjective deletions without breaking into self-reference; maybe a self-referential tag outside of the main article would have been better. Anyway, I liked your shortened version Jiang, and there's now a note to editors at the top of the Democratic and Republican that appears only in the edit window conveys the same basic caution. 64.229.33.197 01:17, 10 Nov 2004 (UTC)