2005 California's 48th congressional district special election
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Elections in California | ||||
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In the fall of 2005, a
District geography
The district is located in
.Candidates
Ten Republicans qualified for the special primary election.
Four Democrats qualified for the special primary election. Attorney Steve Young, UCI professor John Graham (who ran for the seat in three previous elections against Chris Cox: 2000, 2002 and 2004), teacher Bea Foster, and marketing consultant Tom Pallow.
Real estate agent Bruce D. Cohen of the
Campbell and Brewer were generally considered the frontrunners, with Gilchrist viewed as a possible spoiler against Campbell in the special primary election. Campbell had the backing of many major Republican officeholders, including Governor
Political climate
The district is overwhelmingly conservative, with Republicans enjoying a 2 to 1 voter registration advantage (Christopher Cox won his last bid for re-election with 65% of the vote). Most pundits therefore viewed the contest as which Republican candidate would get the honor of filling the vacant seat. Because John Campbell obtained the majority of the endorsements within the Republican establishment, and was able to raise over $2,000,000, it quickly became apparent that Campbell would be destined to win.
Campbell's strategy was to ensure that Jim Gilchrist would not "steal" too many votes that would have otherwise gone to him had Gilchrist not run. Gilchrist for his part, spent $500,000 to ensure that the topic of illegal immigration is prominent in the race. Democratic attorney Steve Young spent a large amount of his own money in the hope that Gilchrist and Campbell will split the conservative vote to a point which would allow him to edge both of them. Although Gilchrist spent more than twice the amount Young spent, Young edged Gilchrist for second place by two percentage points in the December 6 general election.
Campbell's confidence in his victory was quite evident. In September, he skipped a candidate forum, and in November he attended a fundraiser for himself in
Results of special primary election
On October 4, Republican John Campbell garnered 45.5 percent of the vote, 4.5 percent short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. He faced the leading vote getter from the four other parties participating: American Independent Jim Gilchrist, Democrat Steve Young, Green Béa Tiritilli, and Libertarian Bruce Cohen in a December 6 runoff.
California's 48th congressional district special primary, 2005[1] | ||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
Republican | John Campbell
|
41,420 | 45.2 | |
Republican | Marilyn Brewer | 15,595 | 17.0 | |
American Independent | Jim Gilchrist | 13,423 | 14.6 | |
Democratic | Steve Young | 7,941 | 8.7 | |
Democratic | John Graham | 3,667 | 4.0 | |
Democratic | Bea Foster | 2,944 | 3.2 | |
Republican | Don Udall | 1,417 | 1.5 | |
Republican | John Kelly | 1,070 | 1.2 | |
Green
|
Béa Tiritilli | 790 | 0.9 | |
Libertarian | Bruce Cohen | 731 | 0.8 | |
Republican | David Crouch | 523 | 0.6 | |
Republican | Scott MacCabe | 397 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Marsha Morris | 351 | 0.4 | |
Democratic | Tom Pallow | 307 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Guy Mailly | 153 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Marshall Samuel Sanders | 110 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Edward Suppe | 101 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Delecia Holt (write-in) | 11 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Steven Wesley Blake (write-in) | 2 | 0.0 | |
Invalid ballots | 758 | 0.8 | ||
Totals | 91,711 | 100.0 | ||
Voter turnout | 22.8 |
Results of special general election
The result of the December 6 general election are notable in that Campbell's plurality actually decreased by more than a point, and the combined Democratic total nearly doubled in the general election, with Gilchrist additionally gaining ten points. This would seem to indicate that a large majority of the voters who voted for a Republican candidate other than Campbell in the October 4 special primary election, did not rally behind Campbell in the special general election.
California's 48th congressional district special election, 2005[2] | ||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
Republican | John Campbell
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46,184 | 44.4 | |
Democratic | Steve Young | 28,853 | 27.8 | |
American Independent | Jim Gilchrist | 26,507 | 25.5 | |
Green
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Béa Tiritilli | 1,430 | 1.4 | |
Libertarian | Bruce Cohen | 974 | 0.9 | |
Invalid ballots | 457 | 0.4 | ||
Totals | 104,405 | 100.0 | ||
Voter turnout | 25.7 |
Postscript
Campbell's victory caused a vacancy in the 35th State Senate district. A special primary election was scheduled for April 11, 2006. Two Republicans: Assemblymember and former Huntington Beach, California councilmember Tom Harman, and Dana Point, California councilmember Diane Harkey raised $330,000 and $800,000 respectively for the race (Harkey spent $620,000 of her own money).[3][4] The Democratic candidate, Larry Caballero, spent virtually nothing. In a race that was largely centered on the issue of illegal immigration,[5] Harman edged Harkey by 236 votes, out of over 98,000 votes cast.[6] Harkey sought a recount of the official results, at a cost of $14,000 (which she had to pay for). The recount did not change the outcome, with Harman's lead shrinking to 225 votes.[7] Harman faced Caballero in a runoff on June 6 and won the race to succeed Campbell by a 2-1 margin.[8]
Harman's election to the State Senate left a vacancy in the State Assembly, which stayed vacant until December 4, 2006, when Jim Silva was sworn in after winning the regularly scheduled election for the seat on November 7.
References
- ^ "Special Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. October 10, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 29, 2008. Retrieved May 29, 2008.
- ^ "Special Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 16, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 29, 2008. Retrieved May 29, 2008.
- ^ "Around The Capital". Archived from the original on May 17, 2006. Retrieved April 17, 2006.
- ^ Around The Capital[permanent dead link]
- ^ Monterey Herald
- ^ Results
- ^ LA Times
- ^ Results
External links
Government web sites
- General Election Results from the California Secretary of State
- Orange County Registrar of Voters
- California Secretary of State site for the Special Election
- List of certified primary candidates
- Vacancy Announcement for seat from the U.S. House of Representatives
News media
- Brewer senses sharks circling her Archived 2006-09-07 at the Orange County Registerarticle
- Endorsements for Cox's seat Archived 2008-12-02 at the Orange County Registerarticle
- Endorsements start for Cox's seat Archived 2008-12-02 at the Orange County Registerarticle
- The changes I've seen Archived 2008-12-02 at the Orange County Register article by Christopher Cox
- Cox says he's out of politics Archived 2008-12-02 at the Orange County Registerarticle
Campaign sites
General election candidates
- John Campbell for Congress web site
- Bruce Cohen for Congress web site
- Jim Gilchrist for Congress web site