2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The
District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories[a] were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 112th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections
.
Predictions on overall outcome
These were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.
- RealClearPolitics.
- As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.[1]
- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times)
- As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.[2]
- Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com
- Crystal Ball
- As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".[6]
- Charlie Cook
- On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."[7]
- In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[8]
- Rasmussen Reports
- On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House."[9]
- Rothenberg Political Report.
- On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."[10]
- In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[11]
- Congressional Quarterly.
- In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.[12]
- In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.[13]
Election ratings
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
- Lean: clear advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe: outcome is nearly certain
The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result |
538 November 1, 2010[20] |
Winner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama 2 | R+16 | Bobby Bright (D) | 51.0% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Martha Roby (R) |
| Alabama 5 | R+12 | Parker Griffith (R) (lost renomination) | 51.5% D | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Mo Brooks (R) |
| Arizona 1 | R+6 | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | 55.9% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Paul Gosar (R) |
| Arizona 3 | R+9 | John Shadegg (R) (retiring) | 54.1% R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | Ben Quayle (R) |
| Arizona 5 | R+5 | Harry Mitchell (D) | 53.2% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | David Schweikert (R) |
| Arizona 7 | D+6 | Raúl Grijalva (D) | 63.3% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Raúl Grijalva (D) |
| Arizona 8 | R+4 | Gabby Giffords (D) | 54.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Gabby Giffords (D) |
| Arkansas 1 | R+8 | Robert Marion Berry (D) (retiring)
|
100% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Rick Crawford (R) |
| Arkansas 2 | R+5 | Vic Snyder (D) (retiring) | 76.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Tim Griffin (R) |
| Arkansas 4 | R+7 | Mike Ross (D) | 86.2% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Mike Ross (D) |
| California 3 | R+6 | Dan Lungren (R) | 49.5% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Dan Lungren (R) |
| California 11 | R+1 | Jerry McNerney (D) | 55.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Jerry McNerney (D) |
| California 18 | D+4 | Dennis Cardoza (D) | 100% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Dennis Cardoza (D) |
| California 20 | D+5 | Jim Costa (D) | 74.4% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Jim Costa (D) |
| California 44 | R+6 | Ken Calvert (R) | 49.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Ken Calvert (R) |
| California 45 | R+3 | Mary Bono (R) | 58.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Mary Bono (R) |
| California 47 | D+4 | Loretta Sanchez (D) | 69.5% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Loretta Sanchez (D) |
| Colorado 3 | R+5 | John Salazar (D) | 61.6% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Scott Tipton (R) |
| Colorado 4 | R+6 | Betsy Markey (D) | 56.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Cory Gardner (R) |
| Colorado 7 | D+4 | Ed Perlmutter (D) | 63.5% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Ed Perlmutter (D) |
| Connecticut 1 | D+13 | John Larson (D)
|
71.6% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | John Larson (D)
|
| Connecticut 2 | D+6 | Joe Courtney (D) | 65.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Joe Courtney (D) |
| Connecticut 4 | D+4 | Jim Himes (D) | 51.3% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Jim Himes (D) |
| Connecticut 5 | D+2 | Chris Murphy (D) | 54.1% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Chris Murphy (D) |
| Delaware at-large | D+7 | Mike Castle (R) (retiring)[b] | 61.1% R | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | John Carney (D) |
| Florida 2 | R+6 | Allen Boyd (D) | 61.9% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Steve Southerland (R) |
| Florida 8 | R+2 | Alan Grayson (D) | 52.0% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Daniel Webster (R) |
| Florida 12 | R+6 | Adam Putnam (R) (retiring) | 57.5% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Dennis A. Ross (R)
|
| Florida 22 | D+1 | Ron Klein (D) | 54.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Allen West (R) |
| Florida 24 | R+4 | Suzanne Kosmas (D) | 57.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Sandy Adams (R) |
| Florida 25 | R+5 | Mario Díaz-Balart (R) (retiring) | 53.1% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | David Rivera (R) |
| Georgia 2 | D+1 | Sanford Bishop (D) | 68.9% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Sanford Bishop (D) |
| Georgia 8 | R+10 | Jim Marshall (D) | 57.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Austin Scott (R) |
| Georgia 12 | D+1 | John Barrow (D) | 66.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | John Barrow (D) |
| Hawaii 1 | D+11 | Charles Djou (R) | 39.4% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
| Idaho 1 | R+18 | Walt Minnick (D) | 50.6% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Raúl Labrador (R) |
| Illinois 8 | R+1 | Melissa Bean (D) | 60.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Joe Walsh (R) |
| Illinois 10 | D+6 | Mark Kirk (R) (retiring)[b] | 52.6% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Bob Dold (R) |
| Illinois 11 | R+1 | Debbie Halvorson (D) | 58.4% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Adam Kinzinger (R) |
| Illinois 14 | R+1 | Bill Foster (D) | 57.7% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Randy Hultgren (R) |
| Illinois 17 | D+3 | Phil Hare (D) | 99.8% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Bobby Schilling (R) |
| Indiana 2 | R+2 | Joe Donnelly (D) | 67.1% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Joe Donnelly (D) |
| Indiana 8 | R+8 | Brad Ellsworth (D) (retiring)[b] | 64.7% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Larry Bucshon (R) |
| Indiana 9 | R+6 | Baron Hill (D) | 57.8% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Todd Young (R) |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Bruce Braley (D) | 64.6% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Bruce Braley (D) |
| Iowa 2 | D+7 | David Loebsack (D)
|
57.2% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | David Loebsack (D)
|
| Iowa 3 | D+1 | Leonard Boswell (D) | 56.4% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Leonard Boswell (D) |
| Kansas 3 | R+3 | Dennis Moore (D) (retiring) | 56.4% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Kevin Yoder (R) |
| Kentucky 3 | D+2 | John Yarmuth (D) | 59.4% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | John Yarmuth (D) |
| Kentucky 6 | R+9 | Ben Chandler (D) | 64.7% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Ben Chandler (D) |
| Louisiana 2 | D+25 | Joseph Cao (R) | 49.5% R | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Cedric Richmond (D) |
| Louisiana 3 | R+12 | Charlie Melançon (D) (retiring)[b] | 100% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Jeff Landry (R) |
| Maine 1 | D+8 | Chellie Pingree (D) | 54.9% D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Chellie Pingree (D) |
| Maine 2 | D+3 | Mike Michaud (D) | 67.4% D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Tossup | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Mike Michaud (D) |
| Maryland 1 | R+13 | Frank Kratovil (D) | 49.1% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Andrew P. Harris (R)
|
| Massachusetts 4 | D+14 | Barney Frank (D) | 68.0% D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Barney Frank (D) |
| Massachusetts 5 | D+8 | Niki Tsongas (D) | 100% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Niki Tsongas (D) |
| Massachusetts 6 | D+7 | John F. Tierney (D) | 70.4% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | John F. Tierney (D) |
| Massachusetts 10 | D+5 | Bill Delahunt (D) (retiring) | 100% D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | William R. Keating (D)
|
| Michigan 1 | R+3 | Bart Stupak (D) (retiring) | 65.0% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Dan Benishek (R) |
| Michigan 7 | R+2 | Mark Schauer (D) | 48.8% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tim Walberg (R) |
| Michigan 9 | D+2 | Gary Peters (D) | 52.1% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Gary Peters (D) |
| Michigan 15 | D+13 | John D. Dingell Jr. (D)
|
70.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | John D. Dingell Jr. (D)
|
| Minnesota 1 | R+1 | Tim Walz (D) | 62.5% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Tim Walz (D) |
| Minnesota 6 | R+7 | Michele Bachmann (R) | 46.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Michele Bachmann (R) |
| Minnesota 7 | R+5 | Collin Peterson (D) | 72.2% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Collin Peterson (D) |
| Minnesota 8 | D+3 | Jim Oberstar (D) | 67.7% D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Chip Cravaack (R) |
| Mississippi 1 | R+14 | Travis Childers (D) | 54.5% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Alan Nunnelee (R) |
| Mississippi 2 | D+12 | Bennie Thompson (D) | 69.1% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Bennie Thompson (D) |
| Mississippi 4 | R+20 | Gene Taylor (D) | 74.5% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Steven Palazzo (R) |
| Missouri 3 | D+7 | Russ Carnahan (D) | 66.4% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Russ Carnahan (D) |
| Missouri 4 | R+14 | Ike Skelton (D) | 65.9% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Vicky Hartzler (R) |
| Missouri 5 | D+10 | Emanuel Cleaver (D) | 64.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Emanuel Cleaver (D) |
| Nebraska 2 | R+6 | Lee Terry (R) | 51.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Lee Terry (R) |
| Nevada 2 | D+2 | Dina Titus (D) | 47.4% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Joe Heck (R) |
| New Hampshire 1 | Even | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | 51.7% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Frank Guinta (R) |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+3 | Paul Hodes (D) (retiring)[b] | 56.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Charles Bass (R) |
| New Jersey 3 | R+1 | John Adler (D) | 52.1% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Jon Runyan (R) |
| New Jersey 6 | D+8 | Frank Pallone (D) | 66.9% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Frank Pallone (D) |
| New Jersey 12 | D+5 | Rush Holt Jr. (D) | 63.1% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Rush Holt Jr. (D) |
| New Mexico 1 | D+5 | Martin Heinrich (D) | 55.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Martin Heinrich (D) |
| New Mexico 2 | R+6 | Harry Teague (D) | 56.0% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Steve Pearce (R) |
| New Mexico 3 | D+7 | Ben Ray Lujan (D)
|
56.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Ben Ray Lujan (D)
|
| New York 1 | Even | Tim Bishop (D) | 58.4% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tim Bishop (D) |
| New York 2 | D+4 | Steve Israel (D) | 66.9% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Steve Israel (D) |
| New York 4 | D+6 | Carolyn McCarthy (D) | 64.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Carolyn McCarthy (D) |
| New York 13 | R+4 | Michael McMahon (D) | 60.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Michael Grimm (R) |
| New York 19 | R+3 | John Hall (D) | 58.7% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Nan Hayworth (R) |
| New York 20 | R+2 | Scott Murphy (D) | 50.2% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Chris Gibson (R) |
| New York 22 | D+6 | Maurice Hinchey (D) | 64.0% D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Maurice Hinchey (D) |
| New York 23 | R+1 | Bill Owens (D) | 48.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Bill Owens (D) |
| New York 24 | R+2 | Mike Arcuri (D) | 52.0% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Richard Hanna (R) |
| New York 25 | D+3 | Dan Maffei (D) | 54.8% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Ann Marie Buerkle (R) |
| New York 27 | D+4 | Brian Higgins (D) | 74.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Brian Higgins (D) |
| New York 29 | R+5 | Vacant | 51.0% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Tom Reed (R) |
| North Carolina 2 | R+2 | Bob Etheridge (D) | 66.9% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Renee Ellmers (R) |
| North Carolina 4 | D+8 | David Price (D) | 63.3% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | David Price (D) |
| North Carolina 7 | R+5 | Mike McIntyre (D) | 68.8% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Mike McIntyre (D) |
| North Carolina 8 | R+2 | Larry Kissell (D) | 53.0% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Larry Kissell (D) |
| North Carolina 11 | R+6 | Heath Shuler (D) | 62.0% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Heath Shuler (D) |
| North Carolina 13 | D+5 | Brad Miller (D) | 65.9% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Brad Miller (D) |
| North Dakota at-large | R+10 | Earl Pomeroy (D) | 62.0% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Rick Berg (R) |
| Ohio 1 | D+1 | Steve Driehaus (D) | 52.4% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Steve Chabot (R) |
| Ohio 6 | R+2 | Charlie Wilson (D) | 62.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Bill Johnson (R) |
| Ohio 10 | D+8 | Dennis Kucinich (D) | 57.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Dennis Kucinich (D) |
| Ohio 12 | D+1 | Pat Tiberi (R) | 54.8% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Pat Tiberi (R) |
| Ohio 13 | D+5 | Betty Sutton (D) | 57.0% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Betty Sutton (D) |
| Ohio 15 | D+1 | Mary Jo Kilroy (D) | 45.9% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Steve Stivers (R) |
| Ohio 16 | R+4 | John Boccieri (D) | 55.4% D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Jim Renacci (R) |
| Ohio 18 | R+7 | Zack Space (D) | 59.9% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Bob Gibbs (R) |
| Oklahoma 2 | R+14 | Dan Boren (D) | 70.5% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Dan Boren (D) |
| Oregon 1 | D+8 | David Wu (D) | 71.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | David Wu (D) |
| Oregon 4 | D+2 | Peter DeFazio (D) | 82.3% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Peter DeFazio (D) |
| Oregon 5 | D+1 | Kurt Schrader (D) | 54.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Kurt Schrader (D) |
| Pennsylvania 3 | R+3 | Kathy Dahlkemper (D) | 51.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Mike Kelly (R) |
| Pennsylvania 4 | R+6 | Jason Altmire (D) | 55.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Jason Altmire (D) |
| Pennsylvania 6 | D+4 | Jim Gerlach (R) | 52.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Jim Gerlach (R) |
| Pennsylvania 7 | D+3 | Joe Sestak (D) (retiring)[b] | 59.6% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Pat Meehan (R) |
| Pennsylvania 8 | D+2 | Patrick Murphy (D) | 56.8% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+8 | Chris Carney (D) | 56.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Tom Marino (R) |
| Pennsylvania 11 | D+4 | Paul Kanjorski (D) | 51.6% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lou Barletta (R) |
| Pennsylvania 12 | R+1 | Mark Critz (D) | 52.6% D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Mark Critz (D) |
| Pennsylvania 13 | D+7 | Allyson Schwartz (D) | 62.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Allyson Schwartz (D) |
| Pennsylvania 15 | D+2 | Charlie Dent (R) | 58.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Charlie Dent (R) |
| Pennsylvania 17 | R+6 | Tim Holden (D) | 63.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Tim Holden (D) |
| Rhode Island 1 | D+13 | Patrick J. Kennedy (D) (retiring) | 68.6% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | David Cicilline (D) |
| South Carolina 5 | R+7 | John Spratt (D) | 61.6% D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Mick Mulvaney (R) |
| South Dakota at-large | R+9 | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) | 67.6% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Kristi Noem (R) |
| Tennessee 4 | R+13 | Lincoln Davis (D) | 58.8% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Scott DesJarlais (R) |
| Tennessee 5 | D+3 | Jim Cooper (D) | 65.9% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Jim Cooper (D) |
| Tennessee 6 | R+13 | Bart Gordon (D) (retiring) | 74.4% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Diane Black (R) |
| Tennessee 8 | R+6 | John Tanner (D) (retiring) | 100% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Stephen Fincher (R) |
| Texas 15 | D+3 | Rubén Hinojosa (D) | 65.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Rubén Hinojosa (D) |
| Texas 17 | R+20 | Chet Edwards (D) | 53.0% D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Bill Flores (R) |
| Texas 23 | R+4 | Ciro Rodriguez (D) | 55.8% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Quico Canseco (R) |
| Texas 25 | D+6 | Lloyd Doggett (D) | 65.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lloyd Doggett (D) |
| Texas 27 | R+2 | Solomon P. Ortiz (D)
|
57.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Blake Farenthold (R) |
| Utah 2 | R+15 | Jim Matheson (D) | 63.4% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Jim Matheson (D) |
| Virginia 2 | R+5 | Glenn Nye (D) | 52.4% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Scott Rigell (R) |
| Virginia 5 | R+5 | Tom Perriello (D) | 50.1% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Robert Hurt (R) |
| Virginia 9 | R+11 | Rick Boucher (D) | 97.1% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Morgan Griffith (R) |
| Virginia 11 | D+2 | Gerry Connolly (D) | 54.7% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Gerry Connolly (D) |
| Washington 2 | D+3 | Rick Larsen (D) | 62.4% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Rick Larsen (D) |
| Washington 3 | Even | Brian Baird (D) (retiring) | 64.0% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
| Washington 6 | D+5 | Norm Dicks (D) | 66.9% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Norm Dicks (D) |
| Washington 8 | D+3 | Dave Reichert (R) | 52.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Dave Reichert (R) |
| Washington 9 | D+5 | Adam Smith (D) | 65.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Tossup | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Adam Smith (D) |
| West Virginia 1 | R+9 | Alan Mollohan (D) (lost renomination) | 99.9% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | David McKinley (R) |
| West Virginia 3 | R+6 | Nick Rahall (D) | 66.9% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Nick Rahall (D) |
| Wisconsin 3 | D+4 | Ron Kind (D) | 63.2% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Ron Kind (D) |
| Wisconsin 7 | D+3 | Dave Obey (D) (retiring) | 60.8% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Sean Duffy (R) |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+2 | Steve Kagen (D) | 54.0% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Reid Ribble (R) |
| Overall | R - 204 D - 181 50 tossups |
R - 223 D - 194 18 tossups |
R - 237 D - 198 |
R - 225 D - 168 43 tossups |
R - 199 D - 195 41 tossups |
D - 190 R - 174 42 tossups |
R - 216 D - 200 19 tossups |
R - 242 D - 193 | |||
Notes
References
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- Hot Air. Archived from the originalon December 3, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- ^ "What To Look For On Election Night". Rasmussen Reports. November 2, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- ^ Ishmael, Patrick (October 25, 2010). "Eight days out, GOP still poised to gain 60+ House seats". Hot Air. Archived from the original on November 29, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- ^ "2010 House Ratings". Centerforpolitics.org. November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
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- ^ "Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook". Outsidethebeltway.com. February 22, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ Scott Rasmussen (November 1, 2010). "A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP". wsj.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
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- ^ Rothenberg, The (April 14, 2010). "The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010.
- ^ "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on July 10, 2010. Retrieved July 11, 2010.
- ^ "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 24, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ Larry J. Sabato; Isaac Wood (November 1, 2010). "Election Eve Special". centerforpolitics.org/. University of Virginia. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
- ^ RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010[update]
- ^ "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
- ^ Nate Silver (November 7, 2010). "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com/. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved November 30, 2023.