2016 Croatian parliamentary election

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2016 Croatian parliamentary election
Croatia
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All 151 seats in the Croatian Parliament
76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout54.62% (Decrease 8.44pp)
Party Leader % Seats +/–
HDZ-led coalition Andrej Plenković 36.58 61 +2
People's Coalition
Zoran Milanović 33.45 54 −2
Most
Božo Petrov 9.84 13 −6
Only Option
Ivan Vilibor Sinčić 6.17 8 +7
For Prime Minister Milan Bandić 4.05 2 0
IDSPGSRl Boris Miletić 2.27 3 0
HDSSBHKS Dragan Vulin 1.24 1 −1
Independents Željko Glasnović 0.31 1 +1
Minority lists
SDSS Vojislav Stanimirović 83.55 3 0
Kali Sara Veljko Kajtazi 53.16 1 0
DZMH Róbert Jankovics 53.02 1 +1
UARH
Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj 25.31 1 +1
Independents 2 −1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Result by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Tihomir Orešković
Independent
Andrej Plenković
HDZ

Parliamentary elections were held in

Patriotic Coalition to form a new parliamentary majority, with Minister of Finance Zdravko Marić as Prime Minister, failed and the Parliament voted to dissolve itself on 20 June 2016. The dissolution took effect on 15 July 2016, which made it possible for President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović to officially call for elections on 11 September 2016. These were the ninth parliamentary elections since the 1990
multi-party elections.

The elections were contested by the two largest parties in the outgoing eighth Parliament; the

technocrat
, announced that he would not be running on any party's candidate list and would not seek reelection.

The election resulted in a victory of HDZ with 61 seats in the parliament, while the People's Coalition won 54 seats. Andrej Plenković started talks about forming a governing majority with Most, which won 13 seats. Zoran Milanović announced his withdrawal from politics after the defeat. A few weeks after the election HDZ and Most concluded talks on forming a government, which would also include the 8 Members of Parliament representing national minorities. On 10 October 2016 Plenković formally presented 91 signatures of support by MPs to President

14th government cabinet since the first multi-party elections in 1990, with Andrej Plenković as Croatia's 12th Prime Minister. The new cabinet consisted of 20 ministers, including Goran Marić, a minister without portfolio who was on later tasked with leading the newly formed Ministry of State Property
.

Background

Following the

Bridge of Independent Lists (MOST). However, HDZ put forward a motion of no confidence on 16 June, with 125 of 151 MPs voting in favor of the motion.[1] The HDZ sought to form a new government with Minister of Finance Zdravko Marić as Prime Minister, however it was clear that he would not get support of 76 MPs.[1] On 20 June MPs voted to dissolve parliament effective on 15 July, resulting in snap elections being called by President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who called for elections on 11 September.[2]

Electoral system

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected by three methods; 140 are elected in ten 14-seat constituencies by open list proportional representation using a 5% electoral threshold, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method; 3 are elected in a special constituency for Croatian citizens and people of Croatian descent living overseas; and 8 are elected from a constituency for ethnic national minority groups:[3] 3 for Serbs, 1 for Italians, 1 for Hungarians, 1 for Czechs and Slovaks, 1 for Albanians, Bosniaks, Macedonians, Montenegrins and Slovenes, and 1 for Austrians, Bulgarians, Germans, Jews, Poles, Roma, Romanians, Rusyns, Russians, Turks, Ukrainians and Vlachs.

Political parties

Election campaign

Campaigning for the early parliamentary elections officially began on 16 August 2016 and ended at stroke of midnight between 9 and 10 September 2016. An election silence officially commenced at that time and lasted until 19:00 local time on election day (11 September) when voting officially ended. All electoral activity, such as distributing or exhibiting promotional materials near polling stations or encouraging voters to vote for a certain political party, coalition or candidate is prohibited during the duration of the election silence and is punishable by law.[10]

On 12 August a television debate hosted by

Jutarnji List of 36.700 of its readers, 58% of those taking part answered that Milanović had been the more convincing of the two candidates and had won the debate, while 42% said the same of Plenković. However, some 87% of the 6.000 readers taking part also stated that the television debate had not greatly altered their political views. Readers were also asked to assign a grade (on a scale of 1 to 5) to each of the candidates, with 9.000 people taking part and giving Plenković an average grade of 3,36, while Milanović received an average grade of 3,23.[11]

Issues

The main issues in the electoral campaign included fostering economic growth achieved after a six-year recession (2008-2015) and both major parties, the

Ustaša and Communist regimes in Croatian history and questions relating to whether both regimes should be considered to have been authoritarian and to have committed certain war crimes on ethnic or ideological grounds.[13]

Furthermore, an important issue of the campaign was how to regulate Croatia's relations with

Yugoslavia. Under this law Serbia has issued a large number of arrest warrants for numerous Croatian veterans of the Croatian War of Independence, including numerous prominent political leaders and army commanders. Another issue which was also discussed was whether to use the blocking of Serbia's accession negotiations with the European Union to put pressure on the Serbian government to repeal the controversial law.[12]

Less prominent issues in the campaign included the negative demographic trends in Croatia, mostly relating to a large number of Croatian citizens migrating to other countries to seek employment (among them many young highly educated citizens), diminishing birth rates, the depopulation of certain parts of the country due to poor economic and social conditions, as well as the growing median age of the population.[14]

Opinion polls

Exit polls

Date Polling Organisation/Client
People's Coalition
HDZ Coalition
Most
Živi zid
IDS
NS-R
HDSSB
HKS
Pametno
11 September 2016 Ipsos puls 57 57 12 7 3 2 1 1

Results

People's Coalition
  Even Stronger Istria Coalition
  HDSSB
Coalition
  For Prime Minister Coalition
  No Selling Coalition
Results by municipality, shaded according to winning party's percentage of the vote.

The elections yielded a surprise victory for the conservative HDZ, though most opinion polls had predicted the

MEP Andrej Plenković to shed the image of being a corruption-engulfed right-wing party for a more Europe-oriented centrist one.[16] Low turnout is also thought to have contributed to the unexpectedly large number of seats won by the HDZ, as their voters and supporters were expected to have a high turnout rate on election day. After the election Milanović announced that he would not stand for reelection as party chairman of the SDP in the upcoming leadership election.[17] Following the conservatives' victory, the stock market reacted generally favourably to the election results.[18]

It is considered likely that the next governing majority will be formed by a coalition of the HDZ and the centre-right

Most party, which once again gained the role of kingmaker. However such a coalition would also need the support of additional parties to command a majority of seats, which is also a prerequisite for naming a Prime Minister-designate, who is given a 30-day mandate to form a government by the President. In the event of a HDZ-Most coalition government, Andrej Plenković as chairman of the HDZ is thought to be the most likely candidate to become the 12th Prime Minister of Croatia.[16]

National minorities elected 8 representatives through a separate election system: Milorad Pupovac (84,55% of votes), Mile Horvat (63,68%) and Boris Milošević (60,04%) for the

minorities. Six of the eight representatives of national minorities from the 8th Assembly of Parliament were reelected, while Šandor Juhas (Hungarian minority) lost his bid for reelection and Mirko Rašković (Serb minority) did not run for another term.

Three Members of Parliament were elected by Croatian citizens living abroad in an overseas constituency. Traditionally, the HDZ is heavily favored to win all three seats, however in this election Željko Glasnović, who ran his own independent party list, won one seat in Parliament.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Union of Albanians of Croatia
1+1
Czech and Slovak minority10
Italian minority10
Total80
Total votes37,902
Registered voters/turnout211,26717.94
Source: State Election Committee

Government formation

Following the announcement of election results late on 11 September 2016 it was thought that there could be a repeat of the long-lasting and somewhat tumultuous talks that followed the

Milan Bandić 365, HSS, HDSSB, SDSS
and five representatives of other national minorities.

See also

  • Cabinet of Andrej Plenković

Notes

References

  1. ^ a b Croatian prime minister toppled in confidence vote BBC News, 16 June 2016
  2. ^ Plucinska, Joanna (16 July 2016). "Croatian president calls snap election". POLITICO. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  3. ^ Electoral system Inter-Parliamentary Union
  4. ^ Statute of the Social Democratic Party of Croatia Archived 2013-09-27 at the Wayback Machine Social Democratic Party of Croatia (in Croatian)
  5. ^ "Programske smjernice | Hrvatska narodna stranka - liberalni demokrati". Archived from the original on December 2, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2015.
  6. ^ "Statut | Hrvatska narodna stranka - liberalni demokrati". Archived from the original on December 2, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2015.
  7. ^ "HDZ predao liste, Glasnović ipak odustao"
  8. ^ "Milan Bandić Presents His Coalition"
  9. ^ "Predstavljeni novi predsjednik i novi članovi predsjedništva Akcije mladih". Akcija mladih (in Croatian). Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  10. ^ "Croatia Votes Again in Parliamentary Elections :: Balkan Insight". Balkan Insight. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  11. ^ ČITATELJI JUTARNJEG OCIJENILI: Milanović i Plenković zaslužili 'trojku' (in Croatian)
  12. ^ a b Pavelic, Boris (8 September 2016). "Croatian election fuels regional tensions". EU Observer. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  13. ^ "Mystery man hoping to rule Croatia". POLITICO. 11 August 2016. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  14. ^ "Croatia at a crossroads between the past and the future - Ifimes". IFIMES. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  15. ^ "Croatian parliamentary elections 2016: voters reject the centre-left's tilt to the right". EUROPP. 12 September 2016. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  16. ^ a b c Milardovic, Andjelko. "Snap vote outcome startles Croatia, HDZ chief Plenkovic real winner - analyst". SeeNews. Retrieved 13 September 2016.
  17. ^ Pavlic, Vedran. "Zoran Milanović Will Not Run for Another Term as SDP President". Total Croatia News. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  18. ^ "Croatia's share indices open higher following conservatives election win". SeeNews. Retrieved 13 September 2016.