Social cycle theory
This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. (Learn how and when to remove these template messages)
|
Part of a series on |
Sociology |
---|
Social cycle theories are among the earliest
Historical forerunners
Interpretation of
Plato
Polybius
According to Polybius, who has the most fully developed version of the kyklos, it rotates through the three basic forms of government:
Cicero
Cicero describes anacyclosis in his philosophical work De re publica.[8] His version of the anacyclosis is heavily inspired by Polybius' writings. Cicero argues, contrary to Polybius, that the Roman state can prevail and will not succumb to the harmful cycle despite its mixed government, as long as the Roman Republic will return to its ancient virtues (mos maiorum).[9]
Machiavelli
19th and 20th century theories
The first social cycle theory in sociology was created by
Sociological cycle theory was also developed by
Alexandre Deulofeu developed a mathematical model of social cycles that he claimed fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations and empires go through cycles in his book Mathematics of History (in Catalan, published in 1951). He claims that each civilization passes through a minimum of three 1700-year cycles. As part of civilizations, empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He also stated that by knowing the nature of these cycles, it could be possible to modify the cycles in such a way that change could be peaceful instead of leading to war. Deulofeu believed he had found the origin of Romanesque art, during the 9th century, in an area between Empordà and Roussillon, which he argued was the cradle of the second cycle of western European civilization.
Literary expressions
Much of post-apocalyptic fiction depicts various kinds of cyclical history, with depictions of civilization collapsing and being slowly built up again to collapse again and so on.
An early example is Anatole France's 1908 satirical novel Penguin Island (French: L'Île des Pingouins) which traces the history of Penguinia—a thinly disguised analogue of France—from medieval times to the modern times and into a future of a monstrous super-city—which eventually collapses. This is followed by a renewed Feudalism and agrarian society, and a gradual building up of increasingly advanced civilization—culminating with a new monstrous super-city which would eventually collapse again, and so on.
A later example is
In the future depicted in
Contemporary theories
This section may be confusing or unclear to readers. (March 2021) |
One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of the dynamics of complex agrarian systems.
The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of
Long cycle theory
George Modelski, who presented his ideas in the book Long Cycles in World Politics (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. Long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.
Long cycles, or long waves, offer perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with
The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands."[15] Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.[16]
Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is anarchy.[17] Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger global system cycle. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants", anarchy does not play a role; long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.[18]
Modelski used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.
Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic
In 1988,
- The British Empire and the Crimean War (1853–1856): A century after Britain's successful launch of the Industrial Revolution, and following the subsequent British railway boom of 1815–1853, Britain, in the Crimean War, attacked the Russian Empire, which was perceived as a threat to British India and to eastern Mediterranean trade routes to India. The Crimean War highlighted the poor state of the British Army, which were then addressed, and Britain concentrated on colonial expansion and took no further part in European wars until the outbreak of World War I in 1914.
- The Versailles (1919) and the establishment of Germany's unstable Weimar Republic (1919–1933), in a prelude to World War II.
- The Cuba, 70 miles from the US state of Florida. US President John F. Kennedy blockaded (the term "quarantined" being used because a blockade is an act of war), the island of Cuba and negotiated the Soviet missiles' removal from Cuba (in exchange for the subsequent removal of US missiles from Turkey).[vague]
- The industries. After France, supported financially by the US, had been defeated in Vietnam in 1954 and that country had been temporarily split into North and South Vietnam under the 1954 Geneva Accords; and when war had broken out between the North and South following South Vietnam President Ngo Dinh Diem's refusal to permit all-Vietnam elections in 1956 as stipulated in the Geneva Accords, the ideologically anti-communist United States supported South Vietnam with materiel in a Cold War proxy war and by degrees allowed itself to be drawn into South Vietnam's losing struggle against communist North Vietnam and the Viet Cong acting in South Vietnam. Ultimately, following the defeat of South Vietnam and the United States, the US's governing belief that South Vietnam's defeat would result in all of remaining Mainland Southeast Asia "going communist" (as proclaimed by the US's "domino theory"), proved erroneous.[19][page needed]
Kondratiev waves
In
Such theories are dismissed by most economists on the basis of
Secular cycles theory
Recently the most important contributions to the development of the
The basic logic of these models is as follows:
- After the population reaches the ceiling of the carrying capacity of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.
- The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of famines, growing rebellions etc.
- As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the epidemics, increasing internal warfare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of population.
- As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the population growth resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.
It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.
The models have two main phases, each with two subphases.[27]
- Integrative phase
- Expansion (growth)
- Stagflation (compression)
- Disintegrative phase
- Crisis phase (state breakdown)
- Depression / intercycle
An intercycle is where a functioning state collapses and takes some time to rebuild.
Feature | Integrative phase | Disintegrative phase | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Expansion phase (growth) | Stagflation phase (compression) | Crisis phase (state breakdown) | Depression / Intercycle | |
Population | Increases | Slow increase | Decreases | Slow decrease |
Elites | Low population and consumption | Increasing population and competition and consumption | High population, conflicts, high inequality | Reduction of population, downward mobility, reduced consumption |
State strength and collective solidarity | Increasing | High but decreasing | Collapse | Attempts at rebuilding |
Sociopolitical instability | Low | Increasing | High | Decreasing |
Disintegrative phases typically do not have continuous disorder, but instead periods of strife alternating with relatively peaceful periods. This alternation typically has a period of about two human generation times (40 – 60 years), and Turchin calls it a "fathers and sons" cycle.
Fourth Turning theory
The
Schlesinger liberal-conservative cycles of United States history
The cyclical theory (United States history)[28][29][30][31] is a theory of US history developed by Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. It states that US history alternates between two kinds of phases:
- Liberal, increasing democracy, public purpose, human rights, concern with the wrongs of the many
- Conservative, containing democracy, private interest, property rights, concern with the rights of the few
Each kind of phase generates the other. Liberal phases generate conservative phases from activism burnout, and conservative phases generate liberal phases from accumulation of unsolved problems.
Huntington's creedal-passion episodes of United States history
Historian Samuel P. Huntington has proposed that American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion" roughly every 60 years.[32][33][34] These are efforts to bring American government closer to the "American creed" of being "egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups."
United States Party Systems
The United States has had six party systems over its history. Each one is a characteristic platform and set of constituencies of each of the two major parties. A new party system emerges from a burst of reform, and in some cases, the disintegration of a party in the previous system (1st: Federalist, 2nd: Whig).
Skowronek United States Regimes and Presidency Types
Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has proposed that American history has gone through several regimes, with four main types of presidencies.[32][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] Each regime has a dominant party and an opposition party. The President involved in starting it is a "reconstructive" one, and that President's successors in the dominant party are "articulating" ones. However, opposition-party Presidents are often elected, "preemptive" ones. A regime ends with having a President or two from its dominant party, a "disjunctive" President.
Klingberg cycles of United States foreign policy
Frank Klingberg has proposed a cyclic theory of US foreign policy.[29][42][43][44][45] It states that the US alternates between extroverted phases, phases involving military adventures, challenging other nations, and annexing territory, and introverted phases, phases with the absence of these activities.
See also
- Cyclic model (cosmology)
- Historic recurrence
- List of cycles
- Revolutionary wave
- Societal collapse
- State collapse
References
- ISBN 5-484-00559-0.
- ISBN 978-1-882289-50-9.
- ^ Plato (1969). "VIII, IX". Republic. Translated by Shorey, Paul. Harvard University Press.
- ^ G.A. Plauche (2011). The Cycle of Decline of Regimes in Plato's Republic.
- ISBN 978-1840143010.
- ^ Hermans, M.A. (1991). Polybius' Theory of the Anacyclosis of Constitutions (Masters thesis) – via University of Cape Town.
- ^ Polybius (1889). "VI". The Histories. Translated by Shuckburgh, Evelyn. Macmillan.
- ^ Cicero (1928). De re publica. Translated by Keyes, C.W.
- ^ Beek, Aaron L. (2011). "Cicero Reading Polybius".
- ^ Machiavelli (1883). "I:2". Discourses on Livy.
- ISBN 978-1-47440429-7.
- ISBN 978-0-8386-3792-0.
- ^ E.g., Postan 1950, 1973; Sahlins 1963; Abel 1974, 1980; Ladurie 1974; Hodder 1978; Braudel 1973; Chao 1986; H. T. Wright 1984; Cameron 1989; Goldstone 1991; Kul'pin 1990; Anderson 1994; Mugruzin 1986, 1994, etc.
- ^ George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987.
- ^ Jimmy Myers. "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War." St. Joseph News-Press. 2 Mar 2007.
- ^ George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 102
- ^ Mark Rupert. "Hegemonic Stability Theory. "Hegemonic Stability Theory". Archived from the original on 2002-12-14. Retrieved 2010-01-11.
- ^ George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.
- ^ Goldstein, Joshua (1988), Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age, Yale University Press
- ^ The term long wave originated from a poor early translation of long cycle from Russian to German. Freeman, Chris; Louçã, Francisco (2001) pp 70
- .
- ^ Rudebusch, Glenn D. (4 February 2016). "Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?". FRBSF Economic Letter. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- ^ Drautzburg, Thorsten. "Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles." Economic Insights 4, no. 1 (2019): 1-8.
- ^ Slutzky, Eugen. "The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1937): 105-146.
- ^ Chatterjee, Satyajit. "From cycles to shocks: Progress in business cycle theory." Business Review 3 (2000): 27-37.
- ^ "Клиодинамика - математические методы в истории". cliodynamics.ru. Retrieved 2023-01-20.
- ISBN 9781400830688. table adapted from First ChapterTable 1.1
- ^ Schlesinger, Arthur Sr. (1949). Paths to the Present. Macmillan.
- ^ a b Schlesinger, Arthur Jr. (1999). The Cycles of American History. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
- ^ "CYCLES OF AMERICAN HISTORY". austincc.edu.
- .
- ^ S2CID 147647668.
- ^ Huntington, Samuel P. (1981). American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony. Belknap Press.
- ^ Drutman, Lee (2016-01-06). "This 1981 book eerily predicted today's distrustful and angry political mood". Vox. Retrieved 2023-01-20.
- ^ "The Presidency in the Political Order". spot.colorado.edu. Retrieved 2023-01-20.
- ^ "What Time Is It? Here's What the 2016 Election Tells Us About Obama, Trump, and What Comes Next | The Nation". Archived from the original on 2020-01-06. Retrieved 2020-11-16.
- ^ "Opinion | The Fight Over How Trump Fits in With the Other 44 Presidents - The New York Times". The New York Times.
- ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-01-20.
- JSTOR 3124393.
- JSTOR 27552023.
- ^ Adler, William (2016-12-19). "Donald Trump will follow a failed political transformation, just like Benjamin Harrison". Vox. Retrieved 2023-01-20.
- S2CID 156295082.
- ^ Holmes, Jack E. (1985). The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy. The University Press of Kentucky.
- JSTOR 2991801.
- ^ "(Page 7 of 56) - Long-Term US Foreign Policy Moods and Involvement in System Wars: Is There Any Way to Reduce the Odds? authored by Lawrence, Colin., Holmes, Jack., Johnson, Lauren. and Aardema, Sara". Archived from the original on 2020-01-23. Retrieved 2019-10-23.
Further reading
- Parvini, N. (2023). The Prophets of Doom. Andrews UK Limited.
- Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. (1994) Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China. Journal of Population Economics 7: 351–78.
- Alexandre Deulofeu (1967) La Matemàtica de la Història (Mathematics of History), Figueres, Editorial Emporitana, 1967.
- Fischer, David Hackett (1996). The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 019512121Xfor 1999 paperback reprint.
- ISBN 0-275-95755-1.
- ISBN 90-04-12842-5.
- ISBN 5-484-00559-0. Chapter 4.
- ISBN 5-484-00560-4
- Nefedov, S. A. (2003) A Theory of Demographic Cycles and the Social Evolution of Ancient and Medieval Oriental Societies. Oriens 3: 5–22.
- Nefedov, S. A. (2004) A Model of Demographic Cycles in Traditional Societies: The Case of Ancient China. Social Evolution & History 3(1): 69–80.
- Postan, M. M. (1973) Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar(1967) Human Society-2, Ananda Marga Publications, Anandanagar, P.O. Baglata, Dist. Purulia, West Bengal, India.
- Tainter, Joseph, The Collapse of Complex Civilizations.
- Turchin, P. (2003) Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Turchin, P. (2005) Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure & Dynamics 1 Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States.
- ISBN 5-484-01002-0
- Trends and Cycles, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2014.
- Usher, D. (1989) The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State. The American Economic Review 79: 1031–44.
- Weiss, Volkmar. (2007). The population cycle drives human history - from a eugenic phase into a dysgenic phase and eventual collapse. The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 32: 327-358. volkmar-weiss.de - (2020). IQ Means Inequality: The Population Cycle that Drives Human History. KDP. ISBN 979-8608184406.
External links
- Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
- Complex historical dynamics of crisis: the case of Byzantium (with an extensive discussion of the concept of secular cycles from the point of view of medieval studies)
This article includes a list of general references, but it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations. (March 2009) |