Decline in wild mammal populations
The decline of wild mammal populations globally has been an occurrence spanning over the past 50,000 years, at the same time as the populations of humans and livestock have increased. Nowadays, the total biomass of wild mammals on land is believed to be seven times lower than its prehistoric values, while the biomass of marine mammals had declined fivefold. At the same time, the biomass of humans is "an order of magnitude higher than that of all wild mammals", and the biomass of livestock mammals like pigs and cattle is even larger than that. Even as wild mammals had declined, the growth in the numbers of humans and livestock had increased total mammal biomass fourfold. Only 4% of that increased number are wild mammals, while livestock and humans amount to 60% and 36%. Alongside the simultaneous halving of plant biomass, these striking declines are considered part of the prehistoric phase of the Holocene extinction.[2][1]
Since the second half of the 20th century, a range of
Declines in geologic and prehistoric timeframes
Historically, the
- Extinct in the wild (EW): 2 species
- Critically endangered (CR): 203 species
- Endangered (EN): 505 species
- Vulnerable (VU): 536 species
- Near threatened (NT): 345 species
- Least concern (LC): 3,306 species
- Data deficient (DD): 872 species
As the
In general,
Such pressures on wild species can be alleviated through
There is some debate over the severity of declining trends in the global mammal and the broader
Climate change
Current climate change influences species survival in a given area. Some of the first studies of the influence of climatic variables on wild mammals took place in the United States in
In 2019, historical records from the past 300 years were used to quantify both anthropogenic and climate stressors and their role in te local extinction of 11 medium- and large-sized animals in China.[47] Both climate warming and cooling can cause range shifts and local extinction of animals, but quantitative evidence is rare due to the lack of long-term spatial-temporal data. In[47] Extreme temperature change was negatively associated with increased local extinction of mammals such as the gibbon, macaque, tiger, and water deer. Researchers concluded that while premodern cooling trend may have contributed to extinctions of tiger subspecies in the west and north of China, the recent global warming might contribute to the complete extinction of tigers in southern China.[47]
In all,
Relative to the rate of climate change, evolutionary change is usually considered to be too slow to allow for genetic adaptation among species. However, microevolution is a genetic adaptation that deals with heritable shifts in allele frequencies in a population and is not characterized by the slow process of speciation, or the formation of a new distinct species.[53] However, larger terrestrial animals (including many mammals) usually cannot adapt with microevolution, as the rate of climate change is still too fast for this evolutionary process. Some, like the kangaroo, can still benefit from a very broad climatic tolerance.[54] Others would have to rely on phenotypic plasticity.[55] A plastic response to climate change includes expressing a different phenotype that may lead to differing morphology, phenology, or rate of activity .[56] Unlike genetic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity allows the animal itself to respond to climate change without a change in its genetic makeup. This mechanism that allows this process involves changes in DNA packaging in the nucleus that alters the chance of a particular gene being expressed.[57] Phenological changes are observed and taken as evidence that species are adjusting to environmental changes.
Although species may adapt to changing climates, either through genetic or phenotypic adaptation, all species have limits to their capacity for adaptive response to changing temperatures.[58] However, only around 4% of all mammals that are deemed climate sensitive by the IUC have been studied in regards to linking their demographic composition (i.e. survival, development, and reproduction) to climate change.[59] There is a large discrepancy between the locations of demographic studies and the species that are currently assessed as most vulnerable to climate change.[59] It is also incredibly difficult for studies to focus specifically and determine a straightforward relationship between limited tolerance to high temperatures and local extinction, as a diverse set of factors, such as food abundance, human activity, and mismatched timing, can all play a role in a species’ local or mass extinction.[60] To assess population viability under climate change, more coordinated actions need to be prioritized and taken to collect data on how different species’ demographic rates can persist and respond to climate change.[59]
Specific predictions of population decline or extinction
A 2023 paper concluded that under the high-warming SSP5–8.5 scenario, 50.29% of mammals would lose at least some habitat by 2100 as the conditions become more arid. Out of those, 9.50% would lose over half of their habitat due to an increase in dryness alone, while 3.21% could be expected to lose their entire habitat ad the result. These figures go down to 38.27%, 4.96% and 2.22% under the "intermediate" SSP2-4.5 scenario, and to 22.65%, 2.03% and 1.15% under the high-mitigation SSP1-2.6.[62]
In 2020, a study in Nature Climate Change estimated the effects of Arctic sea ice decline on polar bear populations (which rely on the sea ice to hunt seals) under two climate change scenarios. Under high greenhouse gas emissions, at most a few high-Arctic populations will remain by 2100: under more moderate scenario, the species will survive this century, but several major subpopulations will still be wiped out.[63][64]
In 2019, it was estimated that the current
A 2017 analysis found that the mountain goat populations of coastal Alaska would go extinct sometime between 2015 and 2085 in half of the considered scenarios of climate change.[66] Another analysis found that the Miombo Woodlands of South Africa are predicted to lose about 80% of their mammal species if the warming reached 4.5 °C (8.1 °F).[67]
In 2008, theReferences
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