Extinction risk from climate change
There are several plausible pathways that could lead to an increased extinction risk from climate change. Every
Climate change also increases both the frequency and intensity of
So far, climate change has not yet been a major contributor to the ongoing
The
Causes
When the
Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears[22] In the Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice.[23] Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and snowy owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be negatively affected.[24][25] Climate change is also leading to a mismatch between the snow camouflage of arctic animals such as snowshoe hares with the increasingly snow-free landscape.[26]
Then, many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with salmon and cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the blue whale.[27] Marine invertebrates achieve peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, and cold-blooded animals found at high latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season.[28] Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout.[29]
Species of fish living in cold or cool water can see a reduction in population of up to 50% in the majority of U.S. freshwater streams, according to most climate change models.[30] The increase in metabolic demands due to higher water temperatures, in combination with decreasing amounts of food will be the main contributors to their decline.[30] Additionally, many fish species (such as salmon) use seasonal water levels of streams as a means of reproducing, typically breeding when water flow is high and migrating to the ocean after spawning.[30] Because snowfall is expected to be reduced due to climate change, water runoff is expected to decrease which leads to lower flowing streams, affecting the spawning of millions of salmon.[30] To add to this, rising seas will begin to flood coastal river systems, converting them from fresh water habitats to saline environments where indigenous species will likely perish. In southeast Alaska, the sea rises by 3.96 cm/year, redepositing sediment in various river channels and bringing salt water inland.[30] This rise in sea level not only contaminates streams and rivers with saline water, but also the reservoirs they are connected to, where species such as sockeye salmon live. Although this species of Salmon can survive in both salt and fresh water, the loss of a body of fresh water stops them from reproducing in the spring, as the spawning process requires fresh water.[30]
Furthermore, climate change may disrupt ecological partnerships among interacting species, via changes on behaviour and phenology, or via climate niche mismatch.[31] The disruption of species-species associations is a potential consequence of climate-driven movements of each individual species towards opposite directions.[32][33] Climate change may, thus, lead to another extinction, more silent and mostly overlooked: the extinction of species' interactions. As a consequence of the spatial decoupling of species-species associations, ecosystem services derived from biotic interactions are also at risk from climate niche mismatch.[31] Whole ecosystem disruptions will occur earlier under more intense climate change: under the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario, ecosystems in the tropical oceans would be the first to experience abrupt disruption before 2030, with tropical forests and polar environments following by 2050. In total, 15% of ecological assemblages would have over 20% of their species abruptly disrupted if as warming eventually reaches 4 °C (7.2 °F); in contrast, this would happen to fewer than 2% if the warming were to stay below 2 °C (3.6 °F).[34]
Extinctions attributed to climate change
Besides Bramble Cay melomys (see below), few recorded species extinctions are thought to have been caused by climate change, as opposed to the other drivers of the Holocene extinction. For example, only 20 of 864 species extinctions are considered by the IUCN to potentially be the result of climate change, either wholly or in part, and the evidence linking them to climate change is typically considered as weak or insubstantial.[12] These species’ extinctions are listed in the table below.
Higher taxon | Species | Possible link to climate change | Hypothesized causes of extinction |
---|---|---|---|
Snail | Graecoanatolica macedonica | Drought | Loss of aquatic habitat due to drought |
Snail | Pachnodus velutinus | Drought | Habitat degradation, drought related to climate change, hybridization |
Snail | Pseudamnicola desertorum | Possibly related to drought | Loss of aquatic habitat |
Snail | Rhachistia aldabrae | Drought | Drought related to recent climate change |
Fish*[Note 1] | Acanthobrama telavivensis | Drought | Loss of aquatic habitat |
Fish | Tristramella magdelainae | Drought | Loss of aquatic habitat due to drought, pollution and water extraction |
Frog* | Anaxyrus (Bufo) baxteri | Chytrid | Chytrid fungus |
Frog | Atelopus ignescens | Chytrid | Synergistic effects of chytrid and climate change |
Frog | Atelopus longirostris | Chytrid | Chytrid, climate change, pollution, and habitat loss |
Frog | Craugastor chrysozetetes | Chytrid | Habitat modification and chytrid |
Frog | Craugastor escoces | Chytrid | Chytrid, possibly associated with climate change |
Frog | Incilius (Bufo) holdridgei | Chytrid | Chytrid, possibly associated with climate change |
Frog | Incilius (Bufo) periglenes | Chytrid | Global warming, chytrid, and pollution |
Bird | Fregilupus varius | Drought | Introduced disease, over-harvesting, forest fires, drought, deforestation |
Bird | Gallirallus wakensis | Storms | Overharvesting and occasional inundation of island due to storms |
Bird | Moho braccatus | Storms | Habitat destruction, introduced predators and diseases, and hurricanes |
Bird | Myadestes myadestinus | Storms | Habitat destruction, introduced predators and diseases, and hurricanes |
Bird | Porzana palmeri | Storms | Habitat destruction and predation by introduced species, storms |
Bird | Psephotus pulcherrimus | Drought | Drought and overgrazing reduced food supply, other factors include introduced species, disease, habitat destruction, and overharvesting |
Rodent | Geocapromys thoracatus | Storm | Introduced predators, storm |
- ^ Acanthobrama telavivensis and Anaxyrus (Bufo) baxteri are extinct in the wild rather than globally extinct.
However, there is abundant evidence for local extinctions from contractions at the warm edges of species' ranges.
Extinction risk estimates
Early estimates
The first major attempt to estimate the impact of climate change on generalized species' extinction risks was published in the journal Nature in 2004. It suggested that between 15% and 37% of 1103 endemic or near-endemic known plant and animal species around the world would be "committed to extinction" by 2050, as their habitat will no longer be able to support their survival range by then.[36] However, there was limited knowledge at the time about the species' average ability to disperse or otherwise adapt in response to climate change, and about the minimum average area needed for their persistence, which limited the reliability of their estimate in the eyes of the scientific community.[37][38][39][40][41] In response, another 2004 paper found that different, yet still plausible assumptions about those factors could result in as few as 5.6% or as many as 78.6% of those 1103 species being committed to extinction,[42] although this was disputed by the original authors.[43]
Between 2005 and 2011, 74 studies analyzing the impact of climate change on various species' extinction risk were published. A 2011 review of those studies found that on average, they projected the loss of 11.2% of species by 2100. However, the average of predictions based on the extrapolation of observed responses was 14.7%, while the model-based estimates were at 6.7%. Further, when using
A 2018 study from the University of East Anglia team analyzed the impacts of 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 4.5 °C (8.1 °F) of warming on 80,000 plant and animal species in 35 of the world's biodiversity hotspots. It found that these areas could lose up to 25% and 50% of their species, respectively: they may or may not be able to survive outside of them. Madagascar alone would lose 60% of its species under 4.5 °C (8.1 °F), while Fynbos in Western Cape region of South Africa would lose a third of its species.[35][46]
All species
In 2019, the
In 2020, a paper studied 538 plant and animal species from around the world and how they responded to rising temperatures. From that sample, they estimated that 16% of all species could go extinct by 2070 under the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5, but it could be one-third under RCP8.5, the scenario of continually increasing emissions.[47][48] This finding was later cited in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.[49]
An August 2021 paper found that
Kaiho's follow-up paper estimated that under what he considered the most likely scenario of climate change, with 3 °C (5.4 °F) of warming by 2100 and 3.8 °C (6.8 °F) by 2500 (based on the average of
In July 2022, a survey of 3331 biodiversity experts estimated that since the year 1500, around 30% (between 16% and 50%) of all species have been threatened with extinction – including the species which had already gone extinct. With regards to climate change, the experts estimated that 2 °C (3.6 °F) threatens or drives to extinction about 25% of the species, although their estimates ranged from 15% to 40%. When asked about 5 °C (9.0 °F) warming, they believed it would threaten or drive into extinction 50% of the species, with the range between 32 and 70%.[53]
February 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report included median and maximum estimates of the percentage of species at high risk of extinction for every level of warming, with the maximum estimates increasing much more than the medians. For instance, for 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), the median was 9% and the maximum 14%, for 2 °C (3.6 °F) the median was 10% and the maximum 18%, for 3 °C (5.4 °F) the median was 12% and the maximum 29%, for 4 °C (7.2 °F) the median was 13% and the maximum 39%, and for 5 °C (9.0 °F) the median was 15% but the maximum 48%) at 5 °C.[15]
Vertebrates
A 2013 paper looked at 12 900 islands in the
A 2018
In 2022, a Science Advances paper estimated that local extinctions of 6% of
In 2023, a study estimated the proportion of vertebrates which would exposed to extreme heat beyond what they were known to have experienced historically in at least half their distribution by the end of the century. Under the highest-emission pathway SSP5–8.5 (a warming of 4.4 °C (7.9 °F) by 2100, according to the paper), this would include ~41% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51% reptiles). On the other hand, SSP1–2.6 (1.8 °C (3.2 °F) by 2100) would only see 6.1% of vertebrate species exposed to unprecedented heat in at least of their area, while SSP2–4.5 (2.7 °C (4.9 °F) by 2100) and SSP3–7.0 (3.6 °C (6.5 °F) by 2100) would see 15.1% and 28.8%, respectively.[57]
Another 2023 paper suggested that under SSP5-8.5, around 55.29% of terrestrial vertebrate species would experience some local habitat loss by 2100 due to unprecedented aridity alone, while 16.56% would lose over half of their original habitat to aridity. Around 7.18% of those species will find all of their original habitat too dry to survive in by 2100, presumably going extinct unless migration or some form of adaptation to a dryer environment can occur. Under SSP2-4.5, 41.22% of the terrestrial vertebrates will lose some habitat to aridity, 8.62% will lose over half, and 4.69% will lose all of it, and under SSP1-2.6, these figures go down to 25.16%, 4.62% and 3.04%, respectively.[58]
Amphibians
A 2013 study estimated that 670–933 amphibian species (11–15%) are both highly vulnerable to climate change while already being on the
The
A 2023 paper concluded that under the high-warming SSP5–8.5 scenario, 64.15% of amphibians would lose at least some habitat by 2100 purely due to an increase in aridity, with 33.26% losing over half of it, and 16.21% finding their entire current habitat too dry for them to survive in. These figures go down to 47.46%, 18.60% and 10.31% under the "intermediate" SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 31.69%, 11.18% and 7.36% under the high-mitigation SSP1-2.6.[58]
A 2022 study estimated that while right now, 14.8% of the global range of all
A 2018 paper estimated that both Miombo Woodlands of South Africa and southwestern Australia would lose around 90% of their amphibians if the warming were to reach 4.5 °C (8.1 °F).[35]
Birds
In 2012, it was estimated that on average, every degree of warming results in between 100 and 500 land bird extinctions. For a warming of 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) by 2100, the same research estimated between 600 and 900 land bird extinctions, with 89% occurring in the tropical environments.
A 2023 paper concluded that under the high-warming SSP5–8.5 scenario, 51.79% of birds would lose at least some habitat by 2100 as the conditions become more arid, but only 5.25% would lose over half of their habitat due to an increase in dryness alone, while 1.29% could be expected to lose their entire habitat. These figures go down to 38.65%, 2.02% and 0.95% under the "intermediate" SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 22.83%, 0.70% and 0.49% under the high-mitigation SSP1-2.6.[58]
In 2015, it was projected that native forest birds in Hawaii would be threatened with extinction due to the spread of avian malaria under the high-warming RCP8.5 scenario or a similar scenario from earlier modelling, but would persist under the "intermediate" RCP4.5.[62] For the 604 bird species in mainland North America, 2020 research concluded that under 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warming, 207 would be moderately vulnerable to extinction and 47 would be highly vulnerable. At 2 °C (3.6 °F), this changes to 198 moderately vulnerable and 91 highly vulnerable. At 3 °C (5.4 °F), there are more highly vulnerable species (205) than moderately vulnerable species (140). Relative to 3 °C (5.4 °F), stabilizing the warming at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) represents a reduction in extinction risk for 76% of those species, and 38% stop being vulnerable.[63][64][65]
The
Climate change is particularly threatening to penguins. As early as in 2008, it was estimated that every time Southern Ocean temperatures increase by 0.26 °C (0.47 °F), this reduces king penguin populations by 9%.[70] Subsequent research found that under the worst-case warming trajectory, king penguins will permanently lose at least two out of their current eight breeding sites, and 70% of the species will have to relocate to avoid disappearance, requiring the movement of 1.1 million pairs.[71][72] A 27-year study of the largest colony of Magellanic penguins in the world, published in 2014, found that extreme weather caused by climate change kills 7% of penguin chicks in an average year, accounting for up to 50% of all chick deaths in some years.[73][74] Since 1987, the number of breeding pairs in the colony has reduced by 24%.[74] Chinstrap penguins are also known to be in decline, mainly due to corresponding declines of Antarctic krill.[75] And it was estimated that while Adélie penguins will retain some of its habitat past 2099, one-third of colonies along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) will be in decline by 2060. Those colonies are believed to represent about 20% of the entire species.[76]
Fish
It has been projected in 2015 that many fish species will migrate towards the North and South poles as a result of climate change. Under the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, 2 new species would enter (invade) per 0.5° of latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 in the Southern Ocean. It woul also result in an average of 6.5 local extinctions per 0.5° of latitude outside of the poles.[78]
A 2022 paper found that 45% of all marine species at risk of extinction are affected by climate change, but it's currently less damaging to their survival than
A 2021 study which analyzed around 11,500
In 2023, a study looked at freshwater fish in 900 lakes of the American state of Minnesota. It found that if their water temperature increases by 4 °C (7.2 °F) in July (said to occur under approximately the same amount of global warming), then cold-water fish species like cisco would disappear from 167 lakes, which represents 61% of their habitat in Minnesota. Cool-water yellow perch would see its numbers decline by about 7% across all of Minnesota's lakes, while warm-water bluegill would increase by around 10%.[77]
Mammals
A 2023 paper concluded that under the high-warming SSP5–8.5 scenario, 50.29% of mammals would lose at least some habitat by 2100 as the conditions become more arid. Out of those, 9.50% would lose over half of their habitat due to an increase in dryness alone, while 3.21% could be expected to lose their entire habitat ad the result. These figures go down to 38.27%, 4.96% and 2.22% under the "intermediate" SSP2-4.5 scenario, and to 22.65%, 2.03% and 1.15% under the high-mitigation SSP1-2.6.[58]
In 2020, a study in Nature Climate Change estimated the effects of Arctic sea ice decline on polar bear populations (which rely on the sea ice to hunt seals) under two climate change scenarios. Under high greenhouse gas emissions, at most a few high-Arctic populations will remain by 2100: under more moderate scenario, the species will survive this century, but several major subpopulations will still be wiped out.[82][83]
In 2019, it was estimated that the current
A 2017 analysis found that the mountain goat populations of coastal Alaska would go extinct sometime between 2015 and 2085 in half of the considered scenarios of climate change.[85] Another analysis found that the Miombo Woodlands of South Africa are predicted to lose about 80% of their mammal species if the warming reached 4.5 °C (8.1 °F).[35]
In 2008, the
Reptiles
A 2023 paper concluded that under the high-warming SSP5–8.5 scenario, 56.36% of reptiles would lose at least some habitat by 2100 as the conditions become more arid. Out of those, 23.97% would lose over half of their habitat due to an increase in dryness alone, while 10.94% could be expected to lose their entire habitat as the result. These figures go down to 41.69%, 12.35% and 7.15% under the "intermediate" SSP2-4.5 scenario, and to 24.59%, 6.56% and 4.43% under the high-mitigation SSP1-2.6.[58]
In a 2010 study led by
A 2015 study looked at the persistence of
Following the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season, Kate's leaf tailed gecko lost over 80% of its available habitat.[93]
Sex ratios for sea turtles in the Caribbean are being affected because of climate change. Environmental data were collected from the annual rainfall and tide temperatures over the course of 200 years and showed an increase in air temperature (mean of 31.0 degree Celsius). These data were used to relate the decline of the sex ratios of sea turtles in the North East Caribbean and climate change. The species of sea turtles include Dermochelys coriacea, Chelonia myads, and Eretmochelys imbricata. Extinction is a risk for these species as the sex ratio is being afflicted causing a higher female to male ratio. Projections estimate the declining rate of male Chelonia myads as 2.4% hatchlings being male by 2030 and 0.4% by 2090.[94]
Invertebrates
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report estimates that while at 2 °C (3.6 °F), fewer than 3% of invertebrates would be at a very high risk of extinction, 15% would be at a very high risk at 3.2 °C (5.8 °F). This includes 12% of pollinator species.[15]
Spiders
A 2018 study examined the impact of climate change on
Corals
Almost no other ecosystem is as vulnerable to climate change as coral reefs. Updated 2022 estimates show that even at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), only 0.2% of the world's coral reefs would still be able to withstand marine heatwaves, as opposed to 84% being able to do so now, with the figure dropping to 0% by 2 °C (3.6 °F) and beyond.[96][97] However, it was found in 2021 that each square meter of coral reef area contains about 30 individual corals, and their total number is estimated at half a trillion - equivalent to all the trees in the Amazon, or all the birds in the world. As such, most individual coral reef species are predicted to avoid extinction even as coral reefs would cease to function as the ecosystems we know.[98][99] A 2013 study found that 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are vulnerable to climate change while already threatened with extinction according to the IUCN Red List, and 74–174 (9–22%) coral species were not vulnerable to extinction at the time of publication, but could be threatened under continued climate change, making them a future conservation priority.[60] The authors of the recent coral number estimates suggest that those older projections were too high, although this has been disputed.[98][100][101]
Insects
Insects account for the vast majority of
A 2020 long-term study of more than 60 bee species published in the journal Science found that climate change causes drastic declines in the population and diversity of bumblebees across the two continents studied, independent of land use change and at rates "consistent with a mass extinction." When 1901-1974 "baseline" period was compared with the 2000 to 2014 recent period, then North America's bumblebee populations were found to have fallen by 46%, while Europe's population fell by 14%. The strongest effects were seen in the southern regions, where rapid increases in frequency of extreme warm years had exceeded the species’ historical temperature ranges.[103][104]
A 2018
In 2022, it was found that the warming which occurred over the past 40 years in
Plants
Data from 2018 found that at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 3.2 °C (5.8 °F) of global warming, over half of climatically determined geographic range would be lost by 8%, 16%, and 44% of plant species. This corresponds to more than 20% likelihood of extinction over the next 10–100 years under the IUCN criteria.[56][15]
The 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report estimates that while at 2 °C (3.6 °F) of global warming, fewer than 3% of flowering plants would be at a very high risk of extinction, this increases to 10% at 3.2 °C (5.8 °F).[15]
A 2020 meta-analysis found that while 39% of
Alpine and mountain plant species are known to be some of the most vulnerable to climate change. In 2010, a study looking at 2,632 species located in and around European
It's been estimated that by 2050, climate change alone could reduce
Another estimate suggests that two prominent species of seagrasses in the Mediterranean Sea would be substantially affected under the worst-case greenhouse gas emission scenario, with Posidonia oceanica losing 75% of its habitat by 2050 and potentially becoming functionally extinct by 2100, while Cymodocea nodosa would lose ~46% of its habitat and then stabilize due to expansion into previously unsuitable areas.[113]
Impacts of species degradation on livelihoods
The livelihoods of nature dependent communities depend on abundance and availability of certain species.[114] Climate change conditions such as increase in atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentration directly affect availability of biomass energy, food, fiber and other ecosystem services.[115] Degradation of species supplying such products directly affect the livelihoods of people relying on them more so in Africa.[116] The situation is likely to be exacerbated by changes in rainfall variability which is likely to give dominance to invasive species especially those that are spread across large latitudinal gradients.[117] The effects that climate change has on both plant and animal species within certain ecosystems has the ability to directly affect the human inhabitants who rely on natural resources. Frequently, the extinction of plant and animal species create a cyclic relationship of species endangerment in ecosystems which are directly affected by climate change.[118]
Species adaptation
Many species are already responding to climate change by moving into different areas. For instance,
Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds,[122] and butterflies nearly 160 species from 10 different zones[123] have shifted their ranges northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. The migration range of larger animals may be constrained by human development.[124] In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago.[125]
Climate change has affected the gene pool of the red deer population on Rùm, one of the Inner Hebrides islands, Scotland. Warmer temperatures resulted in deer giving birth on average three days earlier for each decade of the study. The gene which selects for earlier birth has increased in the population because those with the gene have more calves over their lifetime.[129]
Prevention
In addition to reducing future warming to the lowest possible levels, preserving the current and likely near-future habitat of endangered species in
Apiculture initiatives to prevent human-wildlife conflict in Zimbabwe
Women in rural communities in Hurungwe rural district Zimbabwe have resorted to placing beehives at the border of fields and villages (bio fencing) to protect themselves and their crops from elephants.[130]
Assisted migration
Assisted migration is the act of moving plants or animals to a different habitat. It has been proposed as a way to rescue species which may not be able to disperse easily, have long generation times or have small populations.[131] This strategy has already been implemented to save multiple tree species in North America. For instance, the Torreya Guardians have coordinated an assisted migration program to save the Torreya taxifolia from extinction.[132]
See also
- Atelopus varius
- Biodiversity loss
- Chytridiomycosis
- Ecosystem services
- Gastric-brooding frog
- Golden toad
- Global catastrophic risk
- Guajira stubfoot toad
- Keystone species
- Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
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