Psephology
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Psephology (/sɪˈfɒlədʒi/; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting",[1] a technique within the branch of political science known as political methodology. Psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method and is related to political forecasting.
Psephology uses historical precinct
'Psephology' as a term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language.
Etymology
The term draws from the Greek word for pebble as the ancient Greeks used pebbles to vote. (Similarly, the word ballot is derived from the medieval French word "ballotte," meaning a small ball).[3]
Applications
Psephology is a division of political science that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls. People who practise psephology are called psephologists.
A few of the major tools that are used by a psephologist are historical precinct voting data, campaign finance information, and other related data.
Degrees in psephology are not offered (instead, a psephologist might have a degree in political science and/or statistics). Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics (especially electoral systems and voting behaviour) are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.
Notable psephologists
Notable psephologists include:
- Antony Green, election analyst for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation since 1991;[4]
- Malcolm Mackerras (who devised the Mackerras pendulum);
- Michael Barone, who has co-authored The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972;
- David Andrews, who since 1973 has led the Canadian network CTV's analysis and "calling" of dozens of federal and elections and referendums;
- Nate Silver, whose website FiveThirtyEight tracks U.S. voting trends;
- Andrew S. Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates, who together write the daily electoral-vote.com website, which tracks polling for US presidential and congressional elections;
- Canada's Éric Grenier at thewrit.ca;
- David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer;
- John Curtice, who has a strong track record of forecasting UK elections;
- The Cook Political Report;
- Thomas Ferguson, for his Investment theory of party competition;
- V.C. Sekhar, an Indian academic;
- William Bowe of the Australian Poll Bludger;
- Curtis Gans, author of Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009;[5] and
- Michael Gallagher who devised the Gallagher index.
See also
References
- ISBN 978-1-933116-44-0.
- ^ "Chapter 15: British Psephology 1945–2001: Reflections on the Nuffield Election Histories", David Butler, Still More Adventures With Britannia: Personalities, Politics and Culture in Britain. William Roger Louis (Ed.), Harry Ranson Humanities Research Centre, University of Texas, 2003
- ^ Stephan, Annelisa (November 6, 2012). "Voting with the Ancient Greeks". The Iris.
- ^ Green, Antony (16 January 2024). "Election Blog". ABC.
- ISBN 978-1604265958.
External links
- 'Psephos' Dr. Adam Carr's Elections Archive
- International IDEA – International Organisation providing (amongst other things) statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems
- ACE Project – Information resource for electoral design and administration. Includes comparative data on elections and electoral systems
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