2004 Indian general election

Pre-poll alliances

In these elections, compared to all the Lok Sabha elections of the 1990s, the battle was more of a head-to-head contest in the sense that there was no viable third front alternative. Largely the contest was between BJP and its allies on one hand and Congress and its allies on the other. The situation did, however, show large regional differences.

The BJP fought the elections as part of the

Two parties refused to go along with either Congress or BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. Both are based in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of India (in terms of population). Congress made several attempts to form alliances with them, but in vain. Many believed that they would become the 'spoilers' that would rob Congress of an electoral victory. The result was a four-cornered contest in UP, which didn't really hurt or benefit Congress or BJP significantly.

Forecast and campaigns

Most analysts believed the NDA would win the elections. This assessment was also supported by opinion polls. The economy had shown steady growth in the last few months and the

Region-wise results

Region	Total seats	Indian National Congress		Bharatiya Janata Party		Others
South India	131	48	14	18	1	65	13
West India	78	27	10	28	7	23	3
Hindi-Heartland	225	46	12	78	34	101	22
North-East India	25	11	3	4	2	13	4
East India	63	8	3	7	4	48	1
Union Territories	22	5	5	3		14	5
Total	543	145	+31	138	-44	264	+17
Source: Times of India[11]

By states and territories

States

Territories

Analysis

Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a wealthy middle class and thus achieved its overwhelming victory.

Impact

The rout of the ruling parties in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the general elections led to calls for the dissolution of the governments of these states.

The stock market (Bombay Stock Exchange) fell in the week prior to the announcement of the results due to fears of an unstable coalition. As soon as counting began, however, it became clear that the Congress coalition was headed for a sizeable lead over the NDA and the market surged, only to crash the following day when the left parties, whose support would be required for government formation, announced that it was their intention to do away with the disinvestment ministry. Following this, Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister (in office 2004–14) and the prime architect of the economic liberalisation of the early 1990s, hurried to reassure investors that the new government would strive to create a business-friendly climate.

Events

• 13 May - The Congress and allies win a plurality of seats in the Lok Sabha (219 seats against 188 for the BJP).
• 13 May - Counting of votes in the parliamentary elections begins.
• 11 May - Congress wins the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh by 2/3 majority.
• 10 May - The fourth and final phase of elections comes to an end. Results will come out for 542 of the 543 parliament seats with elections to be held again in Chhapra.
• 5 May - Third phase of polling comes to an end with the ruling coalition government gaining seats according to exit polls but still off the victory target. Reports of booth capturing in Chhapra capture headlines.
• 26 April - Second phase of elections sees 55-60% polling. This is the final phase for assembly elections. Polling covers 136 parliamentary constituencies in 11 states. The share market starts to crash as it becomes evident that the NDA government may find it hard to come back to power—raising doubts about the continuation of economic reforms initiated by the NDA government.
• 22 April - Tripura, where polling was delayed because of a local holiday, votes for its two MPs. A turnout of close to 60% is reported, despite calls for abstention made by separatist militants.
• 20 April - The first phase of the vote is held, with average turnouts of between 50% and 55%. Voting is reported as brisk, and the day unfolds relatively smoothly, albeit with some glitches reported with the electronic voting machines. Isolated violent incidents take place in Kashmir, Jammu, Manipur, and Jharkhand.
• 8 April - The NDA's top leaders meet in New Delhi to adopt its manifesto for the elections, "Agenda for Development and Good Governance".
• 7 April - Ram Jethmalani says he will contest the elections against Prime Minister Vajpayee as an independent candidate from Lucknow. He claims he will be supported by the Congress and some other parties.
• 6 April - The BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) tell the Election Commission that they will not stop raising the issue of the foreign origin of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
• 4 April - A
  minister Yashwant Sinha for alleged violation of election code of conduct during a poll meeting in Ranchi
  . Besides Sinha, FIRs were lodged against three other BJP leaders who participated in the meeting.

• List of members of the 14th Lok Sabha
• 2004 elections in India
• Election Commission of India

Further reading

• Shastri, Sandeep, K.C. Suri & Yogendra Yadav (2009) (ed.). Electoral Politics in Indian States : Lok Sabha Elections in 2004 and Beyond, New Delhi : Oxford University Press,
  ISBN 0-19-806329-6

External links

• Election Commission of India
• Parliament of India
• Interactive map at rediff.com
• Report from Mumbai, Gujarat during 2004 election