Cost of electricity by source
Different methods of electricity generation can incur a variety of different costs, which can be divided into three general categories: 1) wholesale costs, or all costs paid by utilities associated with acquiring and distributing electricity to consumers, 2) retail costs paid by consumers, and 3) external costs, or externalities, imposed on society.
Wholesale costs include initial
On average the levelized cost of electricity from utility scale solar power and onshore wind power is less than from coal and gas-fired power stations,[1]: TS-25 but this varies a lot depending on location.[2]: 6–65
Cost metrics
Levelized cost of electricity
The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a metric that attempts to compare the costs of different methods of electricity generation consistently. Though LCOE is often presented as the minimum constant price at which electricity must be sold to break even over the lifetime of the project, such a cost analysis requires assumptions about the value of various non-financial costs (environmental impacts, local availability, others), and is therefore controversial. Roughly calculated, LCOE is the net present value of all costs over the lifetime of the asset divided by an appropriately discounted total of the energy output from the asset over that lifetime.[9]
Levelized cost of storage
The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) is analogous to LCOE, but applied to energy storage technologies such as batteries.[10] Regardless of technology, however, storage is but a secondary source of electricity dependent on a primary source of generation. Thus, a true cost accounting demands that the costs of both primary and secondary sources be included when the cost of storage is compared to the cost of generating electricity in real time to meet demand.[citation needed]
A cost factor unique to storage are losses that occur due to inherent inefficiencies of storing electricity, as well as increased CO2 emissions if any component of the primary source is less than 100% carbon-free.[11] In the U.S., a comprehensive 2015 study found that net system CO2 emissions resulting from storage operation are nontrivial when compared to the emissions from electricity generation [in real time to meet demand], ranging from 104 to 407 kg/MWh of delivered energy depending on location, storage operation mode, and assumptions regarding carbon intensity.[11]
Levelized avoided cost of electricity
The metric levelized avoided cost of energy (LACE) addresses some of the shortcomings of LCOE by considering the economic value that the source provides to the grid. The economic value takes into account the dispatchability of a resource, as well as the existing energy mix in a region.[12]
In 2014, the US
Value-adjusted levelized cost of electricity
The value-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (VALCOE) is a metric devised by the International Energy Agency which includes both the cost of the electricity and the value to the electricity system.[15] For example, the same amount of electricity is more valuable at a time of peak demand. However VALCOE does not take into account future changes to the electricity system, for example the addition of much more solar power could reduce midday value but today's VALCOE does not take that into account.[16][unreliable source?]
Capture rate
The capture rate is the average market price (or capture price) that a source receives divided by the average price for electricity over a period.[17][18][19][20] For example, a dammed hydro plant might only generate when prices are high and so have a capture rate of 200%; whereas a source that is not dispatchable, such as a wind farm without batteries, would typically have a capture rate under 100%.[20] Typically the more of a single type of renewable that is built in a pricing area (such as Great Britain) the lower the capture rate will become for that type, for example if many wind farms generate a lot at the same time the price at that time will go down.[17] There can be curtailment if grid connectivity is lacking across the pricing area – for example from wind power in Scotland to consumers in England – resulting in the capture rate not reflecting the true cost.[17]
Cost factors
While calculating costs, several internal cost factors have to be considered.[21] Note the use of "costs," which is not the actual selling price, since this can be affected by a variety of factors such as subsidies and taxes:
- Capital costs tend to be low for gas and oil power stations; moderate for onshore wind turbines and solar PV (photovoltaics); higher for coal plants and higher still for waste-to-energy, wave and tidal, solar thermal, offshore wind and nuclear.
- Fuel costs – high for fossil fuel and biomass sources, low for nuclear, and zero for many renewables. Fuel costs can vary somewhat unpredictably over the life of the generating equipment, due to political and other factors.
To evaluate the total cost of production of electricity, the streams of costs are converted to a net present value using the time value of money. These costs are all brought together using discounted cash flow.[22][23]
Capital costs
For power generation capacity capital costs are often expressed as overnight cost per kilowatt. Estimated costs are:
Type | US EIA[24] | US NREL[25] | $/MWh[25] | CF[25] |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal power |
$4,074 | $3,075–5,542 | ||
Coal with 90% carbon capture | $6,495–6,625 | |||
Natural gas | $922–2,630 | |||
Combined-cycle |
$1,062–1,201 | |||
Combined-cycle with 90% carbon capture | $2,736–2,845 | |||
Internal combustion engine | $2,018 | |||
Turbine, aeroderivative | $1,294 | |||
Turbine, industrial | $785 | |||
Nuclear | $6,695–7,547 | $7,442–7,989 | $81–82 | 94% |
Wind power | $1,718 | $1,462 | $27–75 | 18–48% |
Wind, offshore | $4,833–6,041 | $3,285–5,908 | $67–146 | 29–52% |
wind ) |
$1,731–2,079 | $2,275–5,803 | $32–219 | 11–52% |
Solar thermal/concentrated |
$7,895 | $6,505 | $76–97 | 49–63% |
Solar photovoltaic |
$1,327 | $1,333–2,743 | $31–146 | 12–30% |
Solar PV with storage | $1,748 | $2,044 | $53–81 | 20–31% |
Battery storage |
$1,316 | $988–4,774 | 8–42% | |
Fuel cells | $6,639–7,224 | |||
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity | $1,999–5,505 | |||
Hydropower, conventional | $3,083 | $2,574–16,283 | $60–366 | 31–66% |
Biomass | $4,524 | $4,416 | $144 | 64% |
Geothermal power | $3,076 | $6,753–46,223 | $55–396 | 80–90% |
Real life costs can diverge significantly from those estimates.
The first German Offshore Wind Park Alpha Ventus Offshore Wind Farm with a nameplate capacity of 60 MW cost €250 million (after an initial estimate of €190 million).[31] In 2012, it produced 268 GWh of electricity, achieving a capacity factor of just over 50%.[32] If the overnight cost is calculated for the nameplate capacity, it works out to €4167 per kW whereas if one takes into account the capacity factor, the figure needs to be roughly doubled.
Block 5 of
The LCOE of floating wind power increases with the distance from shore.[37]
The Lieberose Photovoltaic Park – one of the largest in Germany – had a nameplate capacity at opening of 52.79 megawatt and cost some €160 million to build[38][39] or €3031 per kW. With a yearly output of some 52 GWh (equivalent to just over 5.9 MW) it has a capacity factor just over 11%. The €160 million figure was again cited when the solar park was sold in 2010.[40]
The world's largest solar farm to date (2022) in Rajasthan, India – Bhadla Solar Park – has a total nameplate capacity of 2255 MW and cost a total of 98.5 billion Indian rupees to build.[41] This works out to roughly 43681 rupees per kW.
As can be seen by these numbers, costs vary wildly even for the same source of electricity from place to place or time to time and depending on whether interest is included in total cost. Furthermore, capacity factors and the intermittency of certain power sources further complicate calculations. Another issue that is often omitted in discussions is the lifespan of various power plants – some of the oldest hydropower plants have existed for over a century, and nuclear power plants going on five or six decades of continuous operation are no rarity. However, many wind turbines of the first generation have already been torn down as they can no longer compete with more modern wind turbines and/or no longer fit into the current regulatory environment.[citation needed] Some of them were not even twenty-five years old. Solar panels exhibit a certain aging, which limits their useful lifetime, but real world data does not yet exist for the expected lifetime of the latest models.
Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs
O&M costs include marginal costs of fuel, maintenance, operation, waste storage, and decommissioning for an electricity generation facility. Fuel costs tend to be highest for oil fired generation, followed in order by coal, gas, biomass and uranium. Due to the high energy density of uranium (or MOX fuel in plants that use this alternative to uranium) and the comparatively low price on the world uranium market (especially when measured in units of currency per unit of energy content), fuel costs only make up a fraction of the operating costs of nuclear power plants. In general, the cost balance between capital and running costs tilts in favor of lower operating expenses for renewables and nuclear and in the other direction for fossil fuels.
As
Short-term fluctuations in fuel prices can have significant effects on the cost of energy generation in natural gas and oil fired power plants and to a lesser extent for coal fired power plants. As renewable energies need no fuel, their costs are independent of world markets for fuels once built. Coal-fired power plants are often supplied with locally or at least domestically available coal – this is especially true for
The biggest factor in the operating costs of both nuclear and renewable are local wages – in most cases those need to be paid regardless of whether the plant is operating at full capacity or putting out only a fraction of its
Market matching costs
Many scholars, such as Paul Joskow, have described limits to the "levelized cost of electricity" metric for comparing new generating sources. In particular, LCOE ignores time effects associated with matching production to demand. This happens at two levels:
- Dispatchability, the ability of a generating system to come online, go offline, or ramp up or down, quickly as demand swings.
- The extent to which the availability profile matches or conflicts with the market demand profile.
Ramp rates (how fast the power can be increased or decreased) may be quicker for more modern nuclear and the economics of nuclear power plants differ.[53][54] Nevertheless, capital intensive technologies such as wind, solar, and nuclear are economically disadvantaged unless generating at maximum availability since the LCOE is nearly all sunk-cost capital investment. Grids with very large amounts of
Another limitation of the LCOE metric is the influence of
External costs of energy sources
Typically pricing of electricity from various energy sources may not include all external costs – that is, the costs indirectly borne by society as a whole as a consequence of using that energy source.[62] These may include enabling costs, environmental impacts, energy storage, recycling costs, or beyond-insurance accident effects.
Solar panel performance is usually guaranteed for 25 years and sometimes 30.[63] According to a 2021 Harvard Business Review study costs of recycling solar panels will reach $20–30 per panel in 2035, which would increase the LCOE fourfold for PV solar power but only if panels are replaced after 15 years rather than the expected 30 years. If panels are replaced early this presents a significant policy challenge because if the recycling is made legal duty of the manufacturers (as it already is in the EU) it will dramatically reduce profit margins on this already competitive market.[64] A 2021 IEA study of repairing old panels to reuse rather than recycle them concluded that the financial viability depends on country specific factors such as grid tariffs, but that reuse is only likely for utility solar, as rooftop owners will want to make best use of space with more efficient new panels.[65]
An EU funded research study known as ExternE, or
A means to address a part of the external costs of fossil fuel generation is
Depending on the assumptions of possible accidents and their probabilities external costs for nuclear power vary significantly and can reach between 0.2 and 200 ct/kWh.[71] Furthermore, nuclear power is working under an insurance framework that limits or structures accident liabilities in accordance with the Paris convention on nuclear third-party liability, the Brussels supplementary convention, and the Vienna convention on civil liability for nuclear damage[72] and in the U.S. the Price-Anderson Act. It is often argued that this potential shortfall in liability represents an external cost not included in the cost of nuclear electricity; but the cost is small, amounting to about 0.1% of the levelized cost of electricity, according to a 2008 study.[73]
These beyond-insurance costs for worst-case scenarios are not unique to nuclear power, as
Because externalities are diffuse in their effect, external costs cannot be measured directly, but must be estimated.
International trade
Different countries charge generating companies differently for the negative externalities (such as pollution) that they create. To avoid unfair competition from imports of dirty electricity a tariff may be applied. For example, the UK and the EU may include electricity in their Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms.[75] Alternatively the emissions trading systems (ETS) of the importing and exporting countries may be linked,[76] or the generators in one country may be subject to the ETS of another country (for example Northern İreland generators are in the EU ETS).[77]
Additional cost factors
Calculations often do not include wider system costs associated with each type of plant, such as long-distance transmission connections to grids, or balancing and reserve costs. Calculations do not necessarily include externalities such as health damage by coal plants, nor the effect of greenhouse emissions on the
Other non-financial factors may include:
- Comparisons of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissionsshow coal, for instance, to be radically higher in terms of GHGs than any alternative.
- Surface power density measures power per unit surface area using given technology, and can vary by several orders of magnitude between high- and low-density sources. Surface power density is a significant limiting factor in countries with high population density.
- Impacts on wildlife include an estimated 888,000 bats killed annually by collision with U.S. wind turbines.[78] Millions of birds are estimated to be killed or electrocuted each year by collision with high-voltage power lines and pylons,[79] and millions more by fossil fuel power plants.[80]
- Other environmental concerns with electricity generation include acid rain, ocean acidificationand effect of coal extraction on watersheds.
- Various human health concerns with electricity generation, including asthma and smog, now dominate decisions in developed nations that incur health care costs publicly.[clarification needed] A 2021 study estimated the health costs of coal power at hundreds of billions of dollars for the rest of the decade.[81]
Global studies
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
IPCC 2014[82]
(at 5% discount rate) |
IRENA 2020[83] | Lazard 2023[84] | NEA 2020[85]
(at 7% discount rate) |
BNEF 2021[86] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PV (utility, fixed-axis) | 110 | 68 | 24–96 | 56 | 39 |
PV (utility, tracking) | - | - | - | - | 47 |
PV (residential) | 150 | 164 | 117–282 | 126 | - |
Solar (thermal) | 150 | 182 | - | 121 | - |
Wind, onshore | 59 | 53 | 24–75 | 50 | 41 |
Wind, offshore | 120 | 115 | 72–140 | 88 | 79 |
Nuclear new (existing) | 65 | - | 140–221* (31) | 69 (32) | - |
Hydro | 22 | 47 | - | 68 | - |
Geothermal | 60 | 73 | - | 99 | - |
Coal (CC) | 61 | - | 68–166 | 88 (110) | - |
Gas CC (Peak) | 71 | - | 115–221 | 71 | - |
*LCOE estimates for nuclear power from Lazard are "based on the then-estimated costs of the Vogtle Plant and US-focused".[84]
Bank of America (2023)
In 2023, Bank of America conducted a LCOE study in which it postulated that existing LCOE estimates for renewables do not account for fossil fuel or battery backup and therefore levelized full system cost of electricity (LFSCOE) would be a more reasonable metric to compare sources in terms of providing 24/7 consumer electricity.[87]
LCOE | LFSCOE
(Texas, US) |
LFSCOE
(Germany, EU) | |
---|---|---|---|
Nuclear | 82 | 122 | 106 |
Wind | 40 | 291 | 504 |
Solar | 36 | 413 | 1548 |
Biomass | 95 | 117 | 104 |
Coal | 76 | 90 | 78 |
Gas | 38 | 40 | 35 |
BNEF (2021)
In March 2021, Bloomberg New Energy Finance found that "renewables are the cheapest power option for 71% of global GDP and 85% of global power generation. It is now cheaper to build a new solar or wind farm to meet rising electricity demand or replace a retiring generator, than it is to build a new fossil fuel-fired power plant. ... On a cost basis, wind and solar is the best economic choice in markets where firm generation resources exist and demand is growing."[86]: 24 They further reported "the levelized cost of energy from lithium-ion battery storage systems is competitive with many peak-demand generators."[86]: 23 BNEF does not disclose the detailed methodology and LCOE calculation assumptions, however, apart from declaring it is "derived from selected public sources".[86]: 98 Costs of gas peakers are substantial, and include both the cost of fuel and external costs of its combustion. Costs of its combustion include emission of greenhouse gases carbon monoxide and dioxide, as well as nitrogen oxides (NOx), which damage the human respiratory system and contribute to acid rain.[88]
IEA & OECD NEA (2020)
In December 2020, IEA and OECD NEA published a joint Projected Costs of Generating Electricity study which looks at a very broad range of electricity generating technologies based on 243 power plants in 24 countries. The primary finding was that "low-carbon generation is overall becoming increasingly cost competitive" and "new nuclear power will remain the dispatchable low-carbon technology with the lowest expected costs in 2025". The report calculated LCOE with assumed 7% discount rate and adjusted for systemic costs of generation.[85] The report also contains a modeling utility that produces LCOE estimates based on user-selected parameters such as discount rate, carbon price, heat price, coal price and gas price.[89] The report's main conclusions:[90]
- LCOE of specific energy sources significantly differs between countries due to their geographic, political and regulatory situation;
- low-carbon energy sources cannot be considered in separation, as they operate in "complex interactions" with each other to ensure reliable supply at all times; IEA analysis captures these interactions in value-adjusted LCOE or VALCOE;
- cost of renewable energy sources significantly decreased and are competitive (in LCOE terms) with dispatchable fossil fuel generation;
- cost of extension of operations of existing nuclear power plants (LTO, long-term operations) has the lowest LCOE of low-carbon energy sources;
Lazard (2020)
In October 2020, the financial firm Lazard compared renewable and conventional sources of energy, including comparison between existing and new generation (see table). Lazard study assumes "60% debt at 8% interest rate and 40% equity at 12% cost" for its LCOE calculation but did not disclose their methodology or project portfolio used to calculate prices.[91] In the 2023 study Lazard explained their LCOE estimates for nuclear power are "based on the then-estimated costs of the Vogtle Plant and US-focused".[84]
IPCC (2014)
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report contains LCOE calculations[82] for broad range of energy sources in the following four scenarios:
- 10% WACC, high full load hours (FLH), no carbon tax
- 5% WACC, high FLH, no carbon tax — scenario presented in the above table
- 10% WACC, low FLH, no carbon tax
- 10% WACC, high FLH, $100/tCO2eq carbon tax
Regional studies
Australia
BNEF[92] estimated the following costs for electricity generation in Australia:[93]
Source | Solar | Wind onshore | Gas CC | Wind plus storage | Solar plus storage | Storage (4hr) | Gas peaker |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean $US/MWh | 47 | 58 | 81 | 87 | 118 | 156 | 228 |
Europe
It can be seen from the following table that the cost of renewable energy, particularly photovoltaics, is falling very rapidly. As of 2017, the cost of electricity generation from photovoltaics, for example, has fallen by almost 75% within 7 years.[94]
Energy Source | Publication 2009[95] | Publication 2011[96] | Study 2012[97] | Various individual data (as of 2012) | Study 2013[98] | Study 2015[99] | Study 2018[100] | Study 2021[101] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuclear | 50[a] | 60–100 | – | 70–90;[102] 70–100;[103] 105[104] | – | 36–84 | – | – |
Lignite | 46–65[b] | 45–100[c] | – | – | 38–53 | 29–84 | 45.9–79.8 | 103.8–153.4 |
Hard Coal | 49–68[b] | 45–100[c] | – | – | 63–80 | 40–116 | 62.7–98.6 | 110.3–200.4 |
Natural Gas (CCGT) | 57–67[b] | 40–75 | – | 93[104] | 75–98 | 53–168 | 77.8–99.6 | 77.9–130.6 |
Hydro | – | – | – | – | – | 22–108 | – | – |
Wind, onshore | 93 | 50–130 | 65–81 | 60.35–111;[105] 118[104] | 45–107 | 29–114 | 39.9–82.3 | 39.4–82.9 |
Wind, offshore | – | 120–180 | 112–183 | 142–150[104] | 119–194 | 67–169 | 74.9–137.9 | 72.3–121.3 |
Biogas | – | – | – | 126[104] | 135–215 | – | 101.4–147.4 | 72.2–172.6 |
Small-scale PV (Germany) | – | – | 137–203 | – | 98–142 | – | 72.3–115.4 | 58.1–80.4 |
Large-Scale PV | 32 | – | 107–167 | 100;[106] 184[104] | 79–116 | 35–180 | 37.1–84.6 | 31.2–57 |
In the United Kingdom, a feed-in tariff of £92.50/MWh at 2012 prices (currently the equivalent of €131/MWh)[107] plus inflation compensation was set in 2013 for the new nuclear power plant to be built at Hinkley Point C, with a term of 35 years. At that time, this was below the feed-in tariff for large photovoltaic and offshore wind plants and above onshore wind plants.[108][109][110]
In Germany, the bidding processes that have been carried out since 2017 have led to significant cost reductions. In one bid for offshore wind farms, at least one bidder dispensed entirely with public subsidies and was prepared to finance the project through the market alone. The highest subsidy price that was still awarded was 6.00 ct/kWh.[111] In a bid for onshore wind farm projects, an average payment of 5.71 ct/kWh was achieved, and 4.29 ct/kWh in a second bidding round.
In 2019, there were bids for new offshore wind farms in the United Kingdom, with costs as low as 3.96 pence per kWh (4.47 ct).[112]
In the same year, there were bids in Portugal for photovoltaic plants, where the price for the cheapest project is 1.476 ct/kWh.[113]
Britain[d]
As of 2022[update], gas is the largest source of
France
This section needs to be updated.(March 2022) |
The
Technology | Cost in 2017 |
---|---|
Hydro power | |
Nuclear (with state-covered insurance costs) | 50 |
Nuclear EPR | 100[121] |
Natural gas turbines without CO2 capture | |
Onshore wind | 60[121] |
Solar farms | 43.24[122] |
Germany
The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems publishes studies comparing the cost of different styles of energy production. The values for PV installations are based on the average cost between Northern and Southern Germany. The reports differentiate between the two and gives more details.[123]
2012 | 2013 | 2018 | 2021 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
PV rooftop (small) | 170 | 120 | 93.85 | 84.1 |
PV rooftop (large) | - | - | - | 72.1 |
PV ground (utility) | 137 | 97.5 | 52.4 | 44.1 |
Wind, onshore | 73 | 76 | 61.1 | 61.15 |
Wind, offshore | 147.5 | 156.5 | 106.4 | 96.8 |
Biogas | - | 120 | 124.4 | 128.55 |
Solid Biomass | - | - | - | 112.75 |
Lignite | - | 45.5 | 62.85 | 128.6 |
Hard Coal | - | 71.5 | 80.65 | 155.35 |
CCGT | - | 86.5 | 88.7 | 104,25 |
Gas Turbine | - | - | 164.85 | 202.1 |
The LCOE for PV battery systems refers to the total amount of energy produced by the PV system minus storage losses. The storage losses are calculated based on the capacity of the battery storage, the assumed number of
2021 | |
---|---|
PV rooftop (small, battery 1:1) | 140.5 |
PV rooftop (large, battery 2:1) | 104.9 |
PV ground (utility, battery 3:2) | 75.8 |
Middle East
The capital investment costs, fixed and variable costs, and the average capacity factor of utility-scale wind and photovoltaic electricity supplies from 2000 to 2018 have been obtained using overall variable renewable electricity production of the countries in the Middle East and 81 examined projects.
Year | Capacity factor | LCOE ($/MWh) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Wind | Photovoltaic | Wind | Photovoltaic | |
2000 | 0.19 | 0.17 | - | - |
2001 | - | 0.17 | - | - |
2002 | 0.21 | 0.21 | - | - |
2003 | - | 0.17 | - | - |
2004 | 0.23 | 0.16 | - | - |
2005 | 0.23 | 0.19 | - | - |
2006 | 0.20 | 0.15 | - | - |
2007 | 0.17 | 0.21 | - | - |
2008 | 0.25 | 0.19 | - | - |
2009 | 0.18 | 0.16 | - | - |
2010 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 107.8 | - |
2011 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 76.2 | - |
2012 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 72.7 | - |
2013 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 72.5 | 212.7 |
2014 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 66.3 | 190.5 |
2015 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 55.4 | 147.2 |
2016 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 52.2 | 110.7 |
2017 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 51.5 | 94.2 |
2018 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 42.5 | 85.8 |
2019 | - | 0.23 | - | 50.1 |
Turkey
As of March 2021[update] for projects starting generating electricity in Turkey from renewable energy in Turkey in July feed-in-tariffs in lira per kWh are: wind and solar 0.32, hydro 0.4, geothermal 0.54, and various rates for different types of biomass: for all these there is also a bonus of 0.08 per kWh if local components are used.[126] Tariffs will apply for 10 years and the local bonus for 5 years.[126] Rates are determined by the presidency,[127] and the scheme replaces the previous USD-denominated feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy.[128]
Japan
This section needs to be updated.(July 2016) |
A 2010 study by the Japanese government (pre-Fukushima disaster), called the Energy White Paper,[129] concluded the cost for kilowatt hour was ¥49 for solar, ¥10 to ¥14 for wind, and ¥5 or ¥6 for nuclear power.
Masayoshi Son, an advocate for renewable energy, however, has pointed out that the government estimates for nuclear power did not include the costs for reprocessing the fuel or disaster insurance liability. Son estimated that if these costs were included, the cost of nuclear power was about the same as wind power.[130][131][132]
More recently, the cost of solar in Japan has decreased to between ¥13.1/kWh to ¥21.3/kWh (on average, ¥15.3/kWh, or $0.142/kWh).[133]
The cost of a solar PV module make up the largest part of the total investment costs. As per the recent analysis of Solar Power Generation Costs in Japan 2021, module unit prices fell sharply. In 2018, the average price was close to 60,000 yen/kW, but by 2021 it is estimated at 30,000 yen/kW, so cost is reduced by almost half.
United States
This section may contain an excessive amount of intricate detail that may interest only a particular audience. |
Energy Information Administration (2020)
Since 2010, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published the
The following data are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in 2020 (AEO2020). They are in dollars per megawatt-hour (2019 USD/MWh). These figures are estimates for plants going into service in 2025, exclusive of tax credits, subsidies, or other incentives.[134] The LCOE below is calculated based on a 30-year recovery period using a real after tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.1%. For carbon intensive technologies 3 percentage points are added to the WACC. (This is approximately equivalent to a fee of $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide CO2.) Federal tax credits and various state and local incentive programs would be expected to reduce some of these LCOE values. For example, EIA expects the federal investment tax credit program to reduce the capacity weighted average LCOE of solar PV built in 2025 by an additional $2.41, to $30.39.
The electricity sources which had the most decrease in estimated costs over the period 2010 to 2019 were solar photovoltaic (down 88%), onshore wind (down 71%) and advanced natural gas combined cycle (down 49%).
For utility-scale generation put into service in 2040, the EIA estimated in 2015 that there would be further reductions in the constant-dollar cost of concentrated solar power (CSP) (down 18%), solar photovoltaic (down 15%), offshore wind (down 11%), and advanced nuclear (down 7%). The cost of onshore wind was expected to rise slightly (up 2%) by 2040, while natural gas combined cycle electricity was expected to increase 9% to 10% over the period.[135]
Estimate in $/MWh | Coal convent'l |
Nat. gas combined cycle | Nuclear advanced |
Wind | Solar | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
of year | ref | for year | convent'l | advanced | onshore | offshore | PV | CSP | ||
2010 | [136] | 2016 | 100.4 | 83.1 | 79.3 | 119.0 | 149.3 | 191.1 | 396.1 | 256.6 |
2011 | [137] | 2016 | 95.1 | 65.1 | 62.2 | 114.0 | 96.1 | 243.7 | 211.0 | 312.2 |
2012 | [138] | 2017 | 97.7 | 66.1 | 63.1 | 111.4 | 96.0 | N/A | 152.4 | 242.0 |
2013 | [139] | 2018 | 100.1 | 67.1 | 65.6 | 108.4 | 86.6 | 221.5 | 144.3 | 261.5 |
2014 | [140] | 2019 | 95.6 | 66.3 | 64.4 | 96.1 | 80.3 | 204.1 | 130.0 | 243.1 |
2015 | [135] | 2020 | 95.1 | 75.2 | 72.6 | 95.2 | 73.6 | 196.9 | 125.3 | 239.7 |
2016 | [141] | 2022 | NB | 58.1 | 57.2 | 102.8 | 64.5 | 158.1 | 84.7 | 235.9 |
2017 | [142] | 2022 | NB | 58.6 | 53.8 | 96.2 | 55.8 | NB | 73.7 | NB |
2018 | [143] | 2022 | NB | 48.3 | 48.1 | 90.1 | 48.0 | 124.6 | 59.1 | NB |
2019 | [143] | 2023 | NB | 40.8 | 40.2 | NB | 42.8 | 117.9 | 48.8 | NB |
2020 | [144] | 2025 | NB | 36.61 | 36.61 | NB | 34.10 | 115.04 | 32.80 | NA |
Nominal change 2010–2020 | NB | −56% | −54% | NB | −77% | -40% | −92% | NB |
Note: Projected LCOE are adjusted for inflation and calculated on
Estimates given without any subsidies. Transmission cost for non-dispatchable sources are on average much higher. NB = "Not built" (No capacity additions are expected.)
See also
- Electricity pricing
- Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of energy sources
- Distributed generation
- Economics of nuclear power plants
- Demand response
- Variable renewable energy
- Levelized cost of water
- National Grid Reserve Service
- Nuclear power in France
- List of thermal power station failures
- Calculating the cost of the UK Transmission network: Estimating cost per kWh of transmission
- List of countries by renewable electricity production
- List of U.S. states by electricity production from renewable sources
- Environmental impact of electricity generation
- Grid parity
Further reading
- Machol, Ben; Rizk, Sarah (February 2013). "Economic value of U.S. fossil fuel electricity health impacts". Environment International. 52: 75–80. PMID 23246069.
- Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 14.0 Archived 28 January 2021 at the Wayback Machine (Oct. 2020)
Notes
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