Planetary boundaries
Planetary boundaries are a framework to describe limits to the impacts of human activities on the
The normative component of the framework is that human societies have been able to thrive under the comparatively stable climatic and ecological conditions of the Holocene. To the extent that these Earth system process boundaries have not been crossed, they mark the "safe zone" for human societies on the planet.[3] Proponents of the planetary boundary framework propose returning to this environmental and climatic system; as opposed to human science and technology deliberately creating a more beneficial climate. The concept doesn't address how humans have massively altered ecological conditions to better suit themselves. The climatic and ecological Holocene this framework considers as a "safe zone" doesn't involve massive industrial farming. So this framework begs a reassessment of how to feed modern populations.
The concept has since become influential in the international community (e.g. United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development), including governments at all levels, international organizations, civil society and the scientific community.[5] The framework consists of nine global change processes. In 2009, according to Rockström and others, three boundaries were already crossed (biodiversity loss, climate change and nitrogen cycle), while others were in imminent danger of being crossed.[6]
In 2015, several of the scientists in the original group published an update, bringing in new co-authors and new model-based analysis. According to this update, four of the boundaries were crossed: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change, altered biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and nitrogen).
In 2022, based on the available literature, the introduction of novel entities was concluded to be the 5th transgressed planetary boundary.[8] Freshwater change was concluded to be the 6th transgressed planetary boundary in 2023.[1]
Framework overview and principles
The basic idea of the Planetary Boundaries framework is that maintaining the observed resilience of the Earth system in the Holocene is a precondition for humanity's pursuit of long-term social and economic development.[9] The Planetary Boundaries framework contributes to an understanding of global sustainability because it brings a planetary scale and a long timeframe into focus.[7]
The framework described nine "planetary life support systems" essential for maintaining a "desired Holocene state", and attempted to quantify how far seven of these systems had been pushed already.[6] Boundaries were defined to help define a "safe space for human development", which was an improvement on approaches aiming at minimizing human impacts on the planet.[9]
The framework is based on scientific evidence that human actions, especially those of industrialized societies since the Industrial Revolution, have become the main driver of global environmental change. According to the framework, "transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental-scale to planetary-scale systems."[9] The framework consists of nine global change processes. In 2009, two boundaries were already crossed, while others were in imminent danger of being crossed.[6] Later estimates indicated that three of these boundaries—climate change, biodiversity loss, and the biogeochemical flow boundary—appear to have been crossed.
The scientists outlined how breaching the boundaries increases the threat of functional disruption, even collapse, in Earth's biophysical systems in ways that could be catastrophic for human wellbeing. While they highlighted scientific uncertainty, they indicated that breaching boundaries could "trigger feedbacks that may result in crossing thresholds that drastically reduce the ability to return within safe levels". The boundaries were "rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps" which interact in complex ways that are not yet well understood.[9]
The planetary boundaries framework lays the groundwork for a shifting approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries demarcate, as it were, the "planetary playing field" for humanity if major human-induced environmental change on a global scale is to be avoided.[7]
Authors
The authors of this framework was a group of
Most of the contributing scientists were involved in strategy-setting for the Earth System Science Partnership, the precursor to the international global change research network Future Earth. The group wanted to define a "safe operating space for humanity" for the wider scientific community, as a precondition for sustainable development.
Nine boundaries
Thresholds and tipping points
The 2009 study identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing on current scientific understanding, the researchers proposed quantifications for seven of them. These are:
- climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere < 350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W/m2 in radiative forcing);
- ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels);
- Dobson Units);
- biogeochemical flows in the nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N/yr) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P);
- global freshwater use (< 4000 km3/yr of consumptive use of runoff resources);
- land system change (< 15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland);
- the erosion of biosphere integrity (an annual rate of loss of biological diversity of < 10 extinctions per million species).
- chemical pollution (introduction of novel entities in the environment).
For one process in the planetary boundaries framework, the scientists have not specified a global boundary quantification:
The quantification of individual planetary boundaries is based on the observed dynamics of the interacting Earth system processes included in the framework. The control variables were chosen because together they provide an effective way to track the human-caused shift away from Holocene conditions.
For some of Earth's dynamic processes, historic data display clear
For several of the processes in the planetary boundaries framework, it is difficult to locate individual points that mark the threshold shift away from Holocene-like conditions. This is because the Earth system is complex and the scientific evidence base is still partial and fragmented. Instead, the planetary boundaries framework identifies many Earth system thresholds at multiple scales that will be influenced by increases in the control variables.[6] Examples include shifts in monsoon behavior linked to the aerosol loading and freshwater use planetary boundaries.
Earth-system process |
Control variable[1] | Boundary value in 2023 |
"Current" value
|
Boundary now exceeded beyond the 2023 values? (based on "current" value) |
Preindustrial Holocene base value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Climate change |
Tipping point (climatology) |
350 | 417[11] | yes | 280 |
Total anthropogenic radiative forcing at top-of-atmosphere (W/m2) since the start of the industrial revolution (~1750) | 1.0 | 2.91[11] | yes | 0 | |
2. Change in biosphere integrity[1] | Genetic diversity: Extinction rate measured as E/MSY (extinctions per million species-years) | <10 E/MSY but with an aspirational goal of ca. 1 E/MSY (assumed background rate of extinction loss) | >100 E/MSY | yes | 1 E/MSY |
Functional diversity: energy available to ecosystems (NPP) (% HANPP) | HANPP (in billion tonnes of C year−1) <10% of preindustrial Holocene NPP, i.e., >90% remaining for supporting biosphere function | 30% HANPP | yes | 1.9% (2σ variability of preindustrial Holocene century-mean NPP) | |
3. Biogeochemical |
Phosphate global: P flow from freshwater systems into the ocean; regional: P flow from fertilizers to erodible soils (Tg of P year−1) | Phosphate global: 11 Tg of P year−1; regional: 6.2 Tg of P year−1 mined and applied to erodible (agricultural) soils. | Global: 22 Tg of P year−1;[12] regional: 17.5 Tg of P year−1 | yes | 0 |
Nitrogen global: industrial and intentional fixation of N (Tg of N year−1) | 62 | 190 | yes | 0 | |
4. Ocean acidification | Global mean saturation state of calcium carbonate in surface seawater (omega units) | 2.75 | 2.8 | no | 3.44 |
5. Land use | Part of forests rested intact (percent)[7] | 75 from all forests including 85 from | Global: 60[7] | yes | 100 |
6. Freshwater change | Blue water: human induced disturbance of blue water flow | Upper limit (95th percentile) of global land area with deviations greater than during preindustrial, Blue water: 10.2% | 18.2% | yes | 9.4% |
Green water: human induced disturbance of water available to plants (% land area with deviations from preindustrial variability) | 11.1% | 15.8% | yes | 9.8% | |
7. Ozone depletion | Stratospheric ozone concentration (Dobson units) | 276 | 284.6 | no | 290 |
8. Atmospheric aerosols | Interhemispheric difference in AOD | 0.1 (mean annual interhemispheric difference) | 0.076 | no | 0.03 |
9. Novel entities | Percentage of synthetic chemicals released to the environment without adequate safety testing | 0 | Transgressed | yes | 0 |
"Safe operating spaces"
The planetary boundaries framework proposes a range of values for its control variables. This range is supposed to span the threshold between a 'safe operating space' where Holocene-like dynamics can be maintained and a highly uncertain, poorly predictable world where Earth system changes likely increase risks to societies. The boundary is defined as the lower end of that range. If the boundaries are persistently crossed, the world goes further into a danger zone.[6]
It is difficult to restore a 'safe operating space' for humanity that is described by the planetary boundary concept. Even if past biophysical changes could be mitigated, the predominant paradigms of social and economic development appear largely indifferent to the looming possibilities of large scale environmental disasters triggered by human actions.[9][13] Legal boundaries can help keep human activities in check, but are only as effective as the political will to make and enforce them.[14]
Interaction among boundaries
Understanding the Earth system is fundamentally about understanding interactions among environmental change processes. The planetary boundaries are defined with reference to dynamic conditions of the Earth system, but scientific discussions about how different planetary boundaries relate to each other are often philosophically and analytically muddled. Clearer definitions of the basic concepts and terms might help give clarity.
There are many many interactions among the processes in the planetary boundaries framework.
Another example has to do with
Proposed new or expanded boundaries since 2012
In 2012,
In 2015, a second paper was published in
In 2017, some authors argued that marine systems are underrepresented in the framework. Their proposed remedy was to include the seabed as a component of the earth surface change boundary. They also wrote that the framework should account for "changes in vertical mixing and ocean circulation patterns".[22]
Subsequent work on planetary boundaries begins to relate these thresholds at the regional scale.[23]
Debate and further research per boundary
Climate change
A 2018 study calls into question the adequacy of efforts to limit warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, as set out in the
Change in biosphere integrity
According to the biologist Cristián Samper, a "boundary that expresses the probability of families of species disappearing over time would better reflect our potential impacts on the future of life on Earth."[25] The biodiversity boundary has also been criticized for framing biodiversity solely in terms of the extinction rate. The global extinction rate has been highly variable over the Earth's history, and thus using it as the only biodiversity variable can be of limited usefulness.[22]
Nitrogen and phosphorus
The biogeochemist William Schlesinger thinks waiting until we near some suggested limit for nitrogen deposition and other pollutions will just permit us to continue to a point where it is too late. He says the boundary suggested for phosphorus is not sustainable, and would exhaust the known phosphorus reserves in less than 200 years.[26]
The
Ocean acidification
Surface ocean acidity is clearly interconnected with the climate change boundaries, since the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also the underlying control variable for the ocean acidification boundary.[31]
The ocean chemist Peter Brewer thinks "ocean acidification has impacts other than simple changes in pH, and these may need boundaries too."[27]
Land-system change
Across the planet, forests, wetlands and other vegetation types are being converted to agricultural and other
The boundary for land use has been criticized as follows: "The boundary of 15 per cent
Freshwater
The freshwater cycle is another boundary significantly affected by climate change.[31] Overexploitation of freshwater occurs if a water resource is mined or extracted at a rate that exceeds the recharge rate. Water pollution and saltwater intrusion can also turn much of the world's underground water and lakes into finite resources with "peak water" usage debates similar to oil.[33][34]
The hydrologist David Molden stated in 2009 that planetary boundaries are a welcome new approach in the "limits to growth" debate but said "a global limit on water consumption is necessary, but the suggested planetary boundary of 4,000 cubic kilometres per year is too generous."[35]
Green and blue water
A study concludes that the 'Freshwater use' boundary should be renamed to the 'Freshwater change', composed of "green" and "blue" water components.[36] 'Green water' refers to disturbances of terrestrial precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture.[36] Water scarcity can have substantial effects in agriculture.[37][38] When measuring and projecting water scarcity in agriculture for climate change scenarios, both "green water" and "blue water" are of relevance.[37][38]
In April 2022, scientists proposed and preliminarily evaluated 'green water' in the water cycle as a likely transgressed planetary boundary, as measured by root-zone soil moisture deviation from Holocene variability.[36][additional citation(s) needed]
Ozone depletion
The stratospheric
The Nobel laureate in chemistry,
Atmospheric aerosols
Worldwide each year, aerosol particles result in about 800,000 premature deaths from air pollution.[citation needed] Aerosol loading is sufficiently important to be included among the planetary boundaries, but it is not yet clear whether an appropriate safe threshold measure can be identified.[31]
Novel entities (chemical pollution)
Some chemicals, such as
A Bayesian emulator for persistent organic pollutants has been developed which can potentially be used to quantify the boundaries for chemical pollution.[41] To date, critical exposure levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) above which mass mortality events of marine mammals are likely to occur, have been proposed as a chemical pollution planetary boundary.[42]
There are at least 350,000 artificial chemicals in the world. They are coming from "
In January 2022 a group of scientists concluded that this planetary boundary is already exceeded, which puts in risk the stability of the Earth system.
In August 2022, scientists concluded that the (overall transgressed) boundary is a placeholder for multiple different boundaries for NEs that may emerge, reporting that
Related concepts
Planetary integrity
Planetary integrity is also called earth's life-support systems or ecological integrity.[47]: 140 Scholars have pointed out that planetary integrity "needs to be maintained for long-term sustainability".[47]: 140 The current biodiversity loss is threatening ecological integrity on a global scale.[47]: 140 The term integrity refers to ecological health in this context. The concept of planetary integrity is interlinked within the concept of planetary boundaries.[47]: 141
An expert Panel on Ecological Integrity in 1998 has defined ecological integrity as follows: "Ecosystems have integrity when they have their native components (plants, animals and other organisms) and processes (such as growth and reproduction) intact."[48]
The Sustainable Development Goals might be able to act as a steering mechanism to address the current loss of planetary integrity.[47]: 142 There are many negative human impacts on the environment that are causing a reduction in planetary integrity.[47]: 142
The "Limits to Growth" (1972) and Gaia theory
The idea that there are limits to the burden placed upon our planet by human activities has been around for a long time. The Planetary Boundaries framework acknowledges the influence of the 1972 study,
Our Common Future was published in 1987 by United Nations' World Commission on Environment and Development.[57] It tried to recapture the spirit of the Stockholm Conference. Its aim was to interlock the concepts of development and environment for future political discussions. It introduced the famous definition for sustainable development: "Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."[57]
Another key idea influencing the Planetary Boundaries framework is the
Anthropocene
From the Stockholm MemorandumScience indicates that we are transgressing planetary boundaries that have kept civilization safe for the past 10,000 years. Evidence is growing that human pressures are starting to overwhelm the Earth’s buffering capacity. Humans are now the most significant driver of global change, propelling the planet into a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. We can no longer exclude the possibility that our collective actions will trigger tipping points, risking abrupt and irreversible consequences for human communities and ecological systems.
Scientists have affirmed that the planet has entered a new epoch, the Anthropocene.[59] In the Anthropocene, humans have become the main agents of not only change to the Earth System[60] but also the driver of Earth System rupture,[61] disruption of the Earth System's ability to be resilient and recover from that change, potentially ultimately threatening planetary habitability. The previous geological epoch, the Holocene began about 10,000 years ago. It is the current interglacial period, and was a relatively stable environment of the Earth. There have been natural environmental fluctuations during the Holocene, but the key atmospheric and biogeochemical parameters have remained within relatively narrow bounds.[62] This stability has allowed societies to thrive worldwide, developing agriculture, large-scale settlements and complex networks of trade.[63]
According to Rockström et al., we "have now become so dependent on those investments for our way of life, and how we have organized society, technologies, and economies around them, that we must take the range within which Earth System processes varied in the Holocene as a scientific reference point for a desirable planetary state."[9]
Various
Reception and debate
In summary, the planetary boundary concept is a very important one, and its proposal should now be followed by discussions of the connections between the various boundaries and of their association with other concepts such as the '
limits to growth'. Importantly, this novel concept highlights the risk of reaching thresholds or tipping points for non-linear or abrupt changes in Earth-system processes. As such, it can help society to reach the agreements required for dealing effectively with existing global environmental threats, such as climate change.
– Nobel laureate
The 2009 report
The biogeochemist William Schlesinger queries whether thresholds are a good idea for pollutions at all. He thinks waiting until we near some suggested limit will just permit us to continue to a point where it is too late. "Management based on thresholds, although attractive in its simplicity, allows pernicious, slow and diffuse degradation to persist nearly indefinitely."[26]
In a global empirical study, researchers investigated how students of environmental and sustainability studies in 35 countries assessed the planetary boundaries. It was found that there are substantial global differences in the perception of planetary boundaries.[69]
Subsequent developments
The "safe and just space" doughnut
The
National environmental footprints
Several studies have assessed environmental footprints of nations based on planetary boundaries: for Portugal,[76] Sweden,[77] Switzerland,[78] the Netherlands,[79] the European Union,[80] India,[81][82] many of Belt and Road Initiative countries [83] as well as for the world's most important economies.[84][85] While the metrics and allocation approaches applied varied, there is a converging outcome that resource use of wealthier nations – if extrapolated to world population – is not compatible with planetary boundaries.
Human activities related to agriculture and nutrition globally contribute to the transgression of four out of nine planetary boundaries. Surplus nutrient flows (N, P) into aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are of highest importance, followed by excessive land-system change and biodiversity loss. Whereas in the case of biodiversity loss, P cycle and land-system change, the transgression is in the zone of uncertainty—indicating an increasing risk (yellow circle in the figure), the N boundary related to agriculture is more than 200% transgressed—indicating a high risk (red marked circle in the figure). Here, nutrition includes food processing and trade as well as food consumption (preparation of food in households and gastronomy). Consumption-related environmental impacts are not quantified at the global level for the planetary boundaries of freshwater use, atmospheric aerosol loading (air pollution) and stratospheric ozone depletion.[86]
Individual and collective allowances
Approaches based on a general framework of ecological limits include (transferable)
Usage at international policy level
United Nations
The United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon endorsed the concept of planetary boundaries on 16 March 2012, when he presented the key points of the report of his High Level Panel on Global Sustainability to an informal plenary of the UN General Assembly.[89] Ban stated: "The Panel's vision is to eradicate poverty and reduce inequality, to make growth inclusive and production and consumption more sustainable, while combating climate change and respecting a range of other planetary boundaries."[90] The concept was incorporated into the so-called "zero draft" of the outcome of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development to be convened in Rio de Janeiro 20–22 June 2012.[91] However, the use of the concept was subsequently withdrawn from the text of the conference, "partly due to concerns from some poorer countries that its adoption could lead to the sidelining of poverty reduction and economic development. It is also, say observers, because the idea is simply too new to be officially adopted, and needed to be challenged, weathered and chewed over to test its robustness before standing a chance of being internationally accepted at UN negotiations."[92]
In 2011, at their second meeting, the High-level Panel on Global Sustainability of the United Nations had incorporated the concept of planetary boundaries into their framework, stating that their goal was: "To eradicate poverty and reduce inequality, make growth inclusive, and production and consumption more sustainable while combating climate change and respecting the range of other planetary boundaries."[93]
Elsewhere in their proceedings, panel members have expressed reservations about the political effectiveness of using the concept of "planetary boundaries": "Planetary boundaries are still an evolving concept that should be used with caution [...] The planetary boundaries question can be divisive as it can be perceived as a tool of the "North" to tell the "South" not to follow the resource intensive and environmentally destructive development pathway that rich countries took themselves... This language is unacceptable to most of the developing countries as they fear that an emphasis on boundaries would place unacceptable brakes on poor countries."[94]
However, the concept is routinely used in the proceedings of the United Nations,[95] and in the UN Daily News. For example, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director Achim Steiner states that the challenge of agriculture is to "feed a growing global population without pushing humanity's footprint beyond planetary boundaries."[96] The UNEP Yearbook 2010 also repeated Rockström's message, conceptually linking it with ecosystem management and environmental governance indicators.[97]
In their 2012 report entitled "Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing", The High-level Panel on Global Sustainability called for bold global efforts, "including launching a major global scientific initiative, to strengthen the interface between science and policy. We must define, through science, what scientists refer to as "planetary boundaries", "environmental thresholds" and "tipping points"".[98]
European Commission
The planetary boundaries concept is also used in proceedings by the European Commission,[99][100] and was referred to in the European Environment Agency synthesis report The European environment – state and outlook 2010.[101]
See also
- Ecological footprint
- Global catastrophic risk
- Global change
- Holocene extinction
- Human impact on the nitrogen cycle
- Human impacts on the environment
- Planetary health
- Planetary management
- Sustainability
- Triple Planetary Crisis
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External links
- Figures and data for the updated Planetary Boundaries can be found at the Stockholm Resilience Centre website.
- Planetary Boundaries: Specials Nature, 24 September 2009.
- Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our development TED video, July 2010. Transcript html
- The Planetary Boundaries and what they mean for the Future of Humanity on YouTube