Global surface temperature

Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
This article is about the average temperature at the Earth's surface, in general. For more specific temperature information recorded since the advent of modern scientific monitoring (since about 1850), see Instrumental temperature record.
tree rings, corals, and ice cores.[1] The red line shows direct surface temperature measurements since 1880.[2]

Global surface temperature (GST) refers to the average temperature of

tree rings, corals, and ice cores.[1] Observing the rising GST over time is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change, which is that human activities are causing climate change
.

Alternative terms for the same thing are global mean surface temperature (GMST) or global average surface temperature.

Series of reliable global temperature measurements began in the 1850—1880 time frame (this is called the instrumental temperature record). Through 1940, the average annual temperature increased, but was relatively stable between 1940 and 1975. Since 1975, it has increased by roughly 0.15 °C to 0.20 °C per decade, to at least 1.1 °C (1.9 °F) above 1880 levels.[3] The current annual GMST is about 15 °C (59 °F),[4] though monthly temperatures can vary almost 2 °C (4 °F) above or below this figure.[5]

Definition

The

near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice, and sea surface temperature (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a value over a specified reference period".[6]
: 2231 

In comparison, the global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) is the "global average of near-surface air temperatures over land, oceans and sea ice. Changes in GSAT are often used as a measure of global temperature change in climate models."[6]: 2231 

Relevance

Changes in global temperatures over the past century provide evidence for the effects of increasing

humans are causing warming of Earth's climate system.

Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6
multi-model mean changes

Measurement and calculation

The global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging the temperatures over sea (

surface air temperature
).

This section is an excerpt from Instrumental temperature record § Methods.[edit]
Surface air temperature change over the past 50 years.[7]

Instrumental temperature records are based on direct, instrument-based measurements of air temperature and ocean temperature, unlike indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and ocean sediments.[8] The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, which starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global records start in 1850.[9] Temperatures on other time scales are explained in global temperature record.

"Global temperature" can have different definitions. There is a small difference between air and surface temperatures.[10]: 12 

Observations

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change § Changes in temperature.[edit]
Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures.[11]

Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system.[12] Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future.[13][14] The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions.[15] Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures.[16] The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.[17]: 787 

Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate.
mid-Pliocene. This was around 3 million years ago.[21]: 322  At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 metres (82 ft) higher than it is today.[22]: 323  The modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been rapid. even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.[23]
: 54 

Effects

environmental migration caused by desertification, and coastal flooding caused by storms
and sea level rise.
This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change.[edit]

Effects of

forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification. These changes can profoundly impact ecosystems and societies, and can become irreversible once tipping points
are crossed.

The effects of climate change vary in timing and location. Up until now the

ocean currents.[24]: 10  The ocean is also acidifying as it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.[25]

positive feedbacks that amplify climate change.[29]
The ecosystems most immediately threatened by climate change are in the
Amazon Rainforest.[32]: 9  At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered.[33]
: 259 

See also

References

  1. ^
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  2. ^ "Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change". NASA. Retrieved 23 February 2020.
  3. ^ World of change: Global Temperatures Archived 2019-09-03 at the Wayback Machine The global mean surface air temperature for the period 1951-1980 was estimated to be 14 °C (57 °F), with an uncertainty of several tenths of a degree.
  4. ^ "Solar System Temperatures". National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 4 September 2023. Archived from the original on 1 October 2023. (link to NASA graphic)
  5. ^ "Tracking breaches of the 1.5 °C global warming threshold". Copernicus Programme. 15 June 2023. Archived from the original on 14 September 2023.
  6. ^ a b IPCC, 2021: Annex VII: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.
  7. ^ "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)". NASA. Retrieved 12 January 2024.
  8. ^ "What Are "Proxy" Data?". NCDC.NOAA.gov. National Climatic Data Center, later called the National Centers for Environmental Information, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2014. Archived from the original on 10 October 2014.
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  10. IPCC (2018). "Summary for Policymakers"
    (PDF). Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. pp. 3–24.
  11. ^ "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)". NASA. Retrieved 12 January 2024.
  12. ISBN 978-92-63-11233-0. Archived
    from the original on 12 November 2019. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  13. ^ "Summary for Policymakers". Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (PDF). 2023. A1, A4.
  14. ^ State of the Global Climate 2021 (Report). World Meteorological Organization. 2022. p. 2. Archived from the original on 18 May 2022. Retrieved 23 April 2023.
  15. ^ a b Lindsey, Rebecca; Dahlman, Luann (June 28, 2022). "Climate Change: Global Temperature". climate.gov. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on September 17, 2022.
  16. doi:10.1002/joc.4688
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  17. ^ Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810.
  18. ^ Joyce, Christopher (30 August 2018). "To Predict Effects Of Global Warming, Scientists Looked Back 20,000 Years". NPR. Archived from the original on 29 December 2019. Retrieved 29 December 2019.
  19. ^ Overpeck, J.T. (20 August 2008), NOAA Paleoclimatology Global Warming – The Story: Proxy Data, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program – NCDC Paleoclimatology Branch, archived from the original on 3 February 2017, retrieved 20 November 2012
  20. ^ The 20th century was the hottest in nearly 2,000 years, studies show Archived 25 July 2019 at the Wayback Machine, 25 July 2019
  21. ^ Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Chapter 6: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356.
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  26. ^ "The Causes of Climate Change". climate.nasa.gov. NASA. Archived from the original on 2019-12-21.
  27. ^ "Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I". science2017.globalchange.gov. U.S. Global Change Research Program. Archived from the original on 2019-12-14.
  28. ^ "Extreme Weather and Climate Change". NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 October 2023.
  29. ^ "The Study of Earth as an Integrated System". nasa.gov. NASA. 2016. Archived from the original on 2016-11-02.
  30. ^ EPA (19 January 2017). "Climate Impacts on Ecosystems". Archived from the original on 27 January 2018. Retrieved 5 February 2019. Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.
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  32. doi:10.1017/9781009157988.001
  33. ^ Parmesan, Camille; Morecroft, Mike; Trisurat, Yongyut; et al. "Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services" (PDF). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
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