Radiative forcing

A planet in radiative equilibrium with its parent star and the rest of space can be characterized by net zero radiative forcing and by a planetary equilibrium temperature.^[4]

Radiative forcing is not a thing in the sense that a single instrument can independently measure it. Rather it is a scientific concept and entity whose strength can be estimated from more fundamental physics principles. Scientists use measurements of changes in atmospheric parameters to calculate the radiative forcing.^[5]: 1–4

The IPCC summarized the current scientific consensus about radiative forcing changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations".^[1]: 11

The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For carbon dioxide, the 50% increase (C/C₀ = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +2.17 W/m².^[6] Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (C/C₀ = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +3.71 W/m².

Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time. The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution.

Definition and fundamentals

Radiative forcing is defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report as follows: "The change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W/m²) due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun."^[3]: 2245

There are some different types of radiative forcing as defined in the literature:^[3]: 2245

• Stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing: "when all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium."
• Instantaneous radiative forcing: "if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for".
• Effective radiative forcing: "once both stratospheric and tropospheric adjustments are accounted for".

The radiation balance of the Earth (i.e. the balance between absorbed and radiated energy) determines the

The concept of radiative forcing has been evolving from the initial proposal, named nowadays instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF), to other proposals that aim to relate better the radiative imbalance with global warming (global surface mean temperature). For example, researchers explained in 2003 how the adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing can be used in general circulation models.^[7]

The adjusted radiative forcing, in its different calculation methodologies, estimates the imbalance once the stratosphere temperatures has been modified to achieve a radiative equilibrium in the stratosphere (in the sense of zero radiative heating rates). This new methodology is not estimating any adjustment or feedback that could be produced on the troposphere (in addition to stratospheric temperature adjustments), for that goal another definition, named effective radiative forcing has been introduced.^[8] In general the ERF is the recommendation of the CMIP6 radiative forcing analysis ^[9] although the stratospherically adjusted methodologies are still being applied in those cases where the adjustments and feedbacks on the troposphere are considered not critical, like in the well mixed greenhouse gases and ozone.^[10][11] A methodology named radiative kernel approach allows to estimate the climate feedbacks within an offline calculation based on a linear approximation ^[12]

Uses

Climate change attribution

Radiative forcing is used to quantify the strengths of different natural and man-made drivers of Earth's energy imbalance over time. The detailed physical mechanisms by which these drivers cause the planet to warm or cool are varied. Radiative forcing allows the contribution of any one driver to be compared against others.

Another metric called effective radiative forcing or ERF removes the effect of rapid adjustments (so-called "fast feedbacks") within the atmosphere that are unrelated to longer term surface temperature responses. ERF means that climate change drivers can be placed onto a more level playing field to enable comparison of their effects and a more consistent view of how global surface temperature responds to various types of human forcing.^[14]

Climate sensitivity

Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks can be used together to estimate a subsequent change in steady-state (often denoted "equilibrium") surface temperature (ΔT_s) via the equation:

${\displaystyle \Delta T_{s}=~{\tilde {\lambda }}~\Delta F}$

where ${\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}$ is commonly denoted the climate sensitivity parameter, usually with units K/(W/m²), and ΔF is the radiative forcing in W/m².^[15] An estimate for ${\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}$ is obtained from the inverse of the

${\displaystyle \lambda }$

${\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}\approx 0.8}$

Historically, radiative forcing displays the best predictive capacity for specific types of forcing such as greenhouse gases. It is less effective for other anthropogenic influences like soot.^[14]

Calculations and measurements

Atmospheric observation

Earth's global

Earth's radiation balance has been continuously monitored by NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments since year 1998.^[20][21] Each scan of the globe provides an estimate of the total (all-sky) instantaneous radiation balance. This data record captures both the natural fluctuations and human influences on IRF; including changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land surface, etc. The record also includes the lagging radiative responses to the radiative imbalances; occurring mainly by way of Earth system feedbacks in temperature, surface albedo, atmospheric water vapor and clouds.^[22][23]

Researchers have used measurements from CERES, AIRS, CloudSat and other satellite-based instruments within NASA's Earth Observing System to parse out contributions by the natural fluctuations and system feedbacks. Removing these contributions within the multi-year data record allows observation of the anthropogenic trend in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) IRF. The data analysis has also been done in a way that is computationally efficient and independent of most related modelling methods and results. Radiative forcing was thus directly observed to have risen by +0.53 W m⁻² (±0.11 W m⁻²) from years 2003 to 2018. About 20% of the increase was associated with a reduction in the atmospheric aerosol burden, and most of the remaining 80% was attributed to the rising burden of greenhouse gases.^[18][24][25]

A rising trend in the radiative imbalance due to increasing global CO₂ has been previously observed by ground-based instruments. For example, such measurements have been separately gathered under clear-sky conditions at two

For a well-mixed greenhouse gas, radiative transfer codes that examine each spectral line for atmospheric conditions can be used to calculate the forcing ΔF as a function of a change in its concentration. These calculations may be simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific to that gas.

Carbon dioxide

A simplified first-order approximation expression for carbon dioxide (CO₂) is:^[30]

${\displaystyle \Delta F=5.35\times \ln {(C_{0}+\Delta C) \over C_{0}}~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}$,

where C₀ is a reference concentration in parts per million (ppm) by volume and ΔC is the concentration change in ppm. For the purpose of some studies (e.g. climate sensitivity), C₀ is taken as the concentration prior to substantial anthropogenic changes and has a value of 278 ppm as estimated for the year 1750.

The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For carbon dioxide, the 50% increase (C/C₀ = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +2.17 W/m².^[6] Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (C/C₀ = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +3.71 W/m².

The relationship between CO₂ and radiative forcing is logarithmic at concentrations up to around eight times the current value.^[31] Constant concentration increases thus have a progressively smaller warming effect. However, the first-order approximation is inaccurate at higher concentrations and there is no saturation in the absorption of infrared radiation by CO₂.^[32]

Other trace gases

Somewhat different formulae apply for other trace greenhouse gases such as

Water vapor

Water vapor is Earth's primary greenhouse gas currently responsible for about half of all atmospheric gas forcing. Its overall atmospheric concentration depends almost entirely on the average planetary temperature, and has the potential to increase by as much as 7% with every degree (°C) of temperature rise (see also: Clausius–Clapeyron relation).^[35] Thus over long time scales, water vapor behaves as a system feedback that amplifies the radiative forcing driven by the growth of carbon dioxide and other trace gases.^[36][37]

Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance

The intensity of

Approximating Earth as a sphere, the cross-sectional area exposed to the Sun (${\textstyle \pi r^{2}}$) is equal to one quarter the area of the planet's surface (${\textstyle 4\pi r^{2}}$). The globally and annually averaged amount of solar irradiance per square meter of Earth's atmospheric surface (${\textstyle I_{0}}$) is therefore equal to one quarter of TSI, and has a nearly constant value of ${\textstyle I_{0}=340~~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}$.

Annual cycles

Earth follows an

Average annual TSI varies between about 1360 W m⁻² and 1362 W m⁻² (±0.05%) over the course of a typical 11-year

TSI variations associated with sunspots contribute a small but non-zero net forcing in the context of decadal climate changes.[41] Some research suggests they may have partly influenced climate shifts during the Little Ice Age, along with concurrent changes in volcanic activity and deforestation.^[46] Since the late 20th century, average TSI has trended slightly lower along with a downward trend in sunspot activity.^[47]

Milankovitch shifts

Climate forcing caused by variations in solar irradiance have occurred during Milankovitch cycles, which span periods of about 40,000 to 100,000 years. Milankovitch cycles consist of long-duration cycles in Earth's orbital eccentricity (or

The Sun has consumed about half its hydrogen fuel since forming approximately 4.5 billion years ago.^[51] TSI will continue to slowly increase during the aging process at a rate of about 1% each 100 million years. Such rate of change is far too small to be detectable within measurements and is insignificant on human timescales.

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) forcing summary

The maximum fractional variations (Δτ) in Earth's solar irradiance during the last decade are summarized in the accompanying table. Each variation previously discussed contributes a forcing of:

${\displaystyle \Delta F=~I_{0}\times (1-R)\times \Delta \tau ~~=~238\times \Delta \tau ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}$,

where R=0.30 is Earth's reflectivity. The radiative and climate forcings arising from changes in the Sun's insolation are expected to continue to be minor, notwithstanding some as-of-yet undiscovered solar physics.^[47][53]

Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols

This article needs to be updated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (April 2024)

A fraction of incident solar radiation is reflected by clouds and aerosols, oceans and landforms, snow and ice, vegetation, and other natural and man-made surface features. The reflected fraction is known as Earth's bond albedo (R), is evaluated at the top of the atmosphere, and has an average annual global value of about 0.30 (30%). The overall fraction of solar power absorbed by Earth is then (1−R) or 0.70 (70%).^[54]

Atmospheric components contribute about three-quarters of Earth albedo, and clouds alone are responsible for half. The major roles of clouds and water vapor are linked with the majority presence of liquid water covering the planet's crust. Global patterns in cloud formation and circulation are highly complex, with couplings to ocean heat flows, and with jet streams assisting their rapid transport. Moreover, the albedos of Earth's northern and southern hemispheres have been observed to be essentially equal (within 0.2%). This is noteworthy since more than two-thirds of land and 85% of the human population are in the north.^[55]

Multiple satellite-based instruments including MODIS, VIIRs, and CERES have continuously monitored Earth's albedo since 1998.^[56] Landsat imagery, available since 1972, has also been used in some studies.^[57] Measurement accuracy has improved and results have converged in recent years, enabling more confident assessment of the recent decadal forcing influence of planetary albedo.^[55] Nevertheless, the existing data record is still too short to support longer-term predictions or to address other related questions.

Annual cycles

Seasonal variations in planetary albedo can be understood as a set of system feedbacks that occur largely in response to the yearly cycling of Earth's relative tilt direction. Along with the atmospheric responses, most apparent to surface dwellers are the changes in vegetation, snow, and sea-ice coverage. Intra-annual variations of about ±0.02 (± 7%) around Earth's mean albedo have been observed throughout the course of a year, with maxima occurring twice per year near the time of each solar equinox.^[55] This repeating cycle contributes net-zero forcing in the context of decades-long climate changes.

Interannual variability

Regional albedos change from year to year due to shifts arising from natural processes, human actions, and system feedbacks. For example, human acts of

During years 2000-2012, no overall trend in Earth's albedo was discernible within the 0.1% standard deviation of values measured by CERES.[55] Along with the hemispherical equivalence, some researchers interpret the remarkably small interannual differences as evidence that planetary albedo may currently be constrained by the action of complex system feedbacks. Nevertheless, historical evidence also suggests that infrequent events such as major volcanic eruptions can significantly perturb the planetary albedo for several years or longer.^[58]

Albedo forcing summary

The measured fractional variations (Δα) in Earth's albedo during the first decade of the 21st century are summarized in the accompanying table. Similar to TSI, the radiative forcing due to a fractional change in planetary albedo (Δα) is:

${\displaystyle \Delta F=~-I_{0}\times R\times \Delta \alpha ~~=~-102\times \Delta \alpha ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}$.

Satellite observations show that various Earth system feedbacks have stabilized planetary albedo despite recent natural and human-caused shifts.^[56] On longer timescales, it is more uncertain whether the net forcing which results from such external changes will remain minor.

Recent growth trends

Radiative forcing (warming influence) of long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases has nearly doubled since 1979.^[59]

The industrial era growth in CO2-equivalent gas concentration and AGGI since year 1750.^[60]

The annual growth in overall gas forcing has held steady near 2% since 1979.^[6]

The IPCC summarized the current scientific consensus about radiative forcing changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 [1.96 to 3.48] W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations".^[1]: 11

Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time.

The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution.

These data do not include the significant forcing contributions from shorter-lived and less-well-mixed gases or aerosols; including those indirect forcings from the decay of methane and some halogens. They also do not account for changes in land use or solar activity.

Click at right to show/hide table

Global radiative forcing (relative to 1750, in ${\displaystyle ~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}$), CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) since 1979[6] Year CO2 CH 4 N 2O CFCs HCFCs HFCs Total CO2-eq ppm AGGI 1990 = 1 AGGI % change 1979 1.025 0.500 0.088 0.175 0.008 0.001 1.798 388 0.787 1980 1.058 0.509 0.088 0.185 0.009 0.001 1.850 392 0.810 2.3 1981 1.076 0.517 0.091 0.195 0.010 0.001 1.890 395 0.827 1.8 1982 1.088 0.525 0.095 0.205 0.011 0.001 1.924 397 0.842 1.5 1983 1.114 0.528 0.097 0.215 0.012 0.001 1.967 400 0.861 1.9 1984 1.138 0.532 0.100 0.225 0.013 0.002 2.009 403 0.879 1.8 1985 1.161 0.538 0.101 0.236 0.014 0.002 2.051 407 0.898 1.8 1986 1.182 0.544 0.105 0.247 0.015 0.002 2.095 410 0.917 1.9 1987 1.208 0.550 0.104 0.260 0.016 0.002 2.140 413 0.937 2.0 1988 1.247 0.555 0.106 0.275 0.017 0.002 2.201 418 0.963 2.7 1989 1.271 0.560 0.110 0.287 0.018 0.003 2.248 422 0.984 2.0 1990 1.290 0.564 0.112 0.296 0.020 0.003 2.285 425 1.000 1.6 1991 1.310 0.569 0.114 0.304 0.021 0.003 2.321 428 1.016 1.6 1992 1.321 0.574 0.116 0.311 0.022 0.003 2.348 430 1.027 1.2 1993 1.332 0.574 0.117 0.314 0.024 0.004 2.364 431 1.034 0.7 1994 1.354 0.577 0.119 0.315 0.025 0.004 2.394 434 1.048 1.3 1995 1.381 0.580 0.119 0.317 0.027 0.005 2.428 436 1.063 1.5 1996 1.408 0.581 0.122 0.317 0.028 0.005 2.461 439 1.077 1.5 1997 1.424 0.582 0.125 0.317 0.030 0.006 2.484 441 1.087 1.0 1998 1.462 0.587 0.127 0.317 0.031 0.007 2.531 445 1.108 2.1 1999 1.493 0.590 0.129 0.317 0.033 0.008 2.570 448 1.125 1.7 2000 1.511 0.591 0.133 0.316 0.035 0.008 2.593 450 1.135 1.0 2001 1.533 0.590 0.135 0.315 0.036 0.010 2.619 452 1.146 1.1 2002 1.562 0.590 0.137 0.314 0.038 0.011 2.652 455 1.161 1.5 2003 1.599 0.592 0.139 0.312 0.039 0.012 2.694 459 1.179 1.8 2004 1.625 0.592 0.141 0.311 0.040 0.013 2.723 461 1.192 1.3 2005 1.654 0.591 0.143 0.309 0.042 0.015 2.753 464 1.205 1.3 2006 1.684 0.591 0.146 0.308 0.043 0.016 2.789 467 1.220 1.5 2007 1.709 0.594 0.148 0.306 0.045 0.018 2.820 469 1.234 1.4 2008 1.739 0.597 0.151 0.304 0.048 0.019 2.857 473 1.250 1.6 2009 1.759 0.599 0.153 0.302 0.049 0.021 2.884 475 1.262 1.2 2010 1.791 0.602 0.156 0.299 0.051 0.023 2.921 478 1.278 1.6 2011 1.816 0.604 0.159 0.297 0.053 0.024 2.954 481 1.293 1.4 2012 1.845 0.606 0.161 0.295 0.054 0.026 2.987 484 1.307 1.5 2013 1.882 0.608 0.164 0.293 0.056 0.028 3.031 488 1.326 1.9 2014 1.908 0.612 0.168 0.291 0.057 0.030 3.066 492 1.342 1.5 2015 1.939 0.617 0.171 0.289 0.058 0.032 3.107 495 1.359 1.8 2016 1.986 0.621 0.173 0.288 0.059 0.034 3.161 500 1.383 2.4 2017 2.014 0.624 0.175 0.286 0.060 0.037 3.195 504 1.398 1.5 2018 2.046 0.627 0.179 0.284 0.060 0.039 3.235 507 1.416 1.7 2019 2.079 0.631 0.182 0.282 0.061 0.041 3.275 511 1.433 1.7 2020 2.110 0.636 0.185 0.279 0.061 0.044 3.316 515 1.451 1.8 2021 2.140 0.643 0.189 0.276 0.061 0.046 3.356 519 1.469 1.8 2022 2.170 0.650 0.193 0.274 0.061 0.049 3.398 523 1.487 1.8

These data show that CO₂ dominates the total forcing, with

halogenated

gases.

It might be observed that the total forcing for year 2016, 3.027 W m⁻², together with the commonly accepted value of climate sensitivity parameter λ, 0.8 K /(W m⁻²), results in an increase in global temperature of 2.4 K, much greater than the observed increase, about 1.2 K.[62]^{[failed verification]} Part of this difference is due to lag in the global temperature achieving steady state with the forcing. The remainder of the difference is due to negative aerosol forcing (compare climate effects of particulates), climate sensitivity being less than the commonly accepted value, or some combination thereof.^[63]

The table also includes an "Annual Greenhouse Gas Index" (AGGI), which is defined as the ratio of the total direct radiative forcing due to long-lived greenhouse gases for any year for which adequate global measurements exist to that which was present in 1990.^[6] 1990 was chosen because it is the baseline year for the Kyoto Protocol. This index is a measure of the inter-annual changes in conditions that affect carbon dioxide emission and uptake, methane and nitrous oxide sources and sinks, the decline in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting chemicals related to the Montreal Protocol. and the increase in their substitutes (hydrogenated CFCs (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). Most of this increase is related to CO₂. For 2013, the AGGI was 1.34 (representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 34% since 1990). The increase in CO₂ forcing alone since 1990 was about 46%. The decline in CFCs considerably tempered the increase in net radiative forcing.

An alternative table prepared for use in climate model intercomparisons conducted under the auspices of IPCC and including all forcings, not just those of greenhouse gases.^[64]

See also

• Global dimming
• Global warming potential

References