Irving Fisher

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Irving Fisher (February 27, 1867 – April 29, 1947)^[1] was an American economist, statistician, inventor, eugenicist and progressive social campaigner. He was one of the earliest American neoclassical economists, though his later work on debt deflation has been embraced by the post-Keynesian school.^[2] Joseph Schumpeter described him as "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced",^[3] an assessment later repeated by James Tobin^[4] and Milton Friedman.^[5]

Fisher made important contributions to

After graduating from Yale, Fisher studied in Berlin and Paris. From 1890 onward, he remained at Yale, first as a tutor, then after 1898 as a professor of political economy, and after 1935 as professor emeritus. He edited the Yale Review from 1896 to 1910 and was active in many learned societies, institutes, and welfare organizations. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1912.^[17] He was president of the American Economic Association in 1918. He was elected to the American Philosophical Society in 1927.^[18] The American Mathematical Society selected him as its Gibbs Lecturer for 1929.^[19] A leading early proponent of econometrics, in 1930 he founded, with Ragnar Frisch and Charles F. Roos the Econometric Society, of which he was the first president.

Fisher was a prolific writer, producing journalism as well as technical books and articles, and addressing various social issues surrounding the First World War, the prosperous 1920s and the depressed 1930s. He made several practical inventions, the most notable of which was an "index visible filing system" which he patented in 1913^[20] and sold to Kardex Rand (later Remington Rand) in 1925. This, and his subsequent stock investments, made him a wealthy man until his personal finances were badly hit by the Crash of 1929.^[21]

Fisher was also an active social and health campaigner, as well as an advocate of vegetarianism, prohibition, and eugenics.^[22] In 1893, he married Margaret Hazard, a granddaughter of Rhode Island industrialist and social reformer Rowland G. Hazard.^[1] He died of inoperable colon cancer^[23] in New York City in 1947, at the age of 80.^[1]

Economic theories

Utility theory

James Tobin, writing on the contributions of John Bates Clark and Irving Fisher to neoclassical theory in America^[24] argues that American economists contributed in their own way to the preparation of a common ground after the neoclassical revolution. In particular Clark and Irving Fisher "brought neoclassical theory into American journals, classrooms, and textbooks, and its analytical tools into the kits of researchers and practitioners." Already in his doctoral thesis, "Fisher expounds thoroughly the mathematics of utility functions and their maximization, and he is careful to allow for corner solutions." Already then, Fisher "states clearly that neither interpersonally comparable utility nor cardinal utility for each individual is necessary to the determination of equilibrium."

In reviewing the history of utility theory, economist George Stigler wrote that Fisher's doctoral thesis had been "brilliant" and stressed that it contained "the first careful examination of the measurability of the utility function and its relevance to demand theory."^[7] While his published work exhibited an unusual degree of mathematical sophistication for an economist of his day, Fisher always sought to bring his analysis to life and to present his theories as lucidly as possible. For instance, to complement the arguments in his doctoral thesis, he built an elaborate hydraulic machine with pumps and levers, allowing him to demonstrate visually how the equilibrium prices in the market adjusted in response to changes in supply or demand.

Interest and capital

Fisher is probably best remembered today in neoclassical economics for his theory of

Fisher saw that subjective economic value is not only a function of the amount of goods and services owned or exchanged, but also of the moment in time when they are purchased with money. A good available now has a different value than the same good available at a later date; value has a time as well as a quantity dimension. The relative price of goods available at a future date, in terms of goods sacrificed now, is measured by the interest rate. Fisher made free use of the standard diagrams used to teach undergraduate economics but labeled the axes "consumption now" and "consumption next period" (instead of the usual schematic alternatives of "apples" and "oranges"). The resulting theory, one of considerable power and insight, was presented in detail in The Theory of Interest.^[25]

This model, later generalized to the case of K goods and N periods (including the case of infinitely many periods) has become a standard theory of capital and interest, and is described in Gravelle and Rees,^[26] and Aliprantis, Brown, and Burkinshaw.^[27] This theoretical advance is explained in Hirshleifer.^[9]

Fisher saw that his theory, via economic policy, was making an impact on society as a whole. Once he brought out his Quantity Theory of Money, it started to bring economic models to life. One of the strongest points that Fisher brings out in discussing interest rates was the power of impatience.^[28]

Monetary economics

Fisher's research into the basic theory of prices and interest rates did not touch directly on the great social issues of the day. On the other hand, his monetary economics did and this grew to be the main focus of Fisher's mature work.

It was Fisher who (following the pioneering work of Simon Newcomb) formulated the quantity theory of money in terms of the "equation of exchange:" Let M be the total stock of money, P the price level, T the number of transactions carried out using money, and V the velocity of circulation of money, so that:

${\displaystyle M\cdot V=P\cdot T}$^{[citation needed]}

Later economists replaced T by the real output Y (or Q), usually quantified by the real Gross domestic product (GDP).

Fisher's Appreciation and Interest was an abstract analysis of the behavior of interest rates when the price level is changing. It emphasized the distinction between real and nominal interest rates:

${\displaystyle r={\frac {(1+i)}{(1+\pi )}}-1\simeq i-\pi }$^[29]

where ${\displaystyle r}$ is the real interest rate, ${\displaystyle i}$ is the nominal interest rate, and the inflation ${\displaystyle \pi }$ is a measure of the increase in the price level. When inflation is sufficiently low, the real interest rate can be approximated as the nominal interest rate minus the expected

Fisher's main intellectual rival was the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. Fisher espoused a more succinct explanation of the quantity theory of money, resting it almost exclusively on long run prices. Wicksell's theory was considerably more complicated, beginning with interest rates in a system of changes in the real economy. Although both economists concluded from their theories that at the heart of the business cycle (and economic crisis) was government monetary policy, their disagreement would not be solved in their lifetimes, and indeed, it was inherited by the policy debates between the Keynesians and monetarists beginning a half-century later.^[30]

Debt-deflation

Following the stock market crash of 1929, and in light of the ensuing

1. Debt liquidation and distress selling.
2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off.
3. A fall in the level of asset prices.
4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies.
5. A fall in profits.
6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.
7. Pessimism and loss of confidence.
8. Hoarding of money.
9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates.

Crucially, as debtors try to liquidate or pay off their nominal debt, the fall of prices caused by this defeats the very attempt to reduce the real burden of debt. Thus, while repayment reduces the amount of money owed, this does not happen fast enough since the real value of the dollar now rises ('swelling of the dollar').^[31]

This theory was largely ignored in favor of

Lawrence Lokken, the University of Miami School of Law professor of economics, credits ^[33] Fisher's 1942 book with the concept behind the Unlimited Savings Accumulation Tax, a reform introduced in the United States Senate in 1995 by Senator Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), former Senator Sam Nunn (D-Georgia), and Senator Bob Kerrey (D-Nebraska). The concept was that unnecessary spending (which is hard to define in a law) can be taxed by taxing income minus all net investments and savings, and minus an allowance for essential purchases, thus making funds available for investment.

Social and health campaigns

In 1898, Fisher was diagnosed with

Fisher supported the legal prohibition of alcohol and wrote three booklets defending prohibition in the United States on grounds of public health and economic productivity.^[35] As a proponent of Eugenics he helped found the Race Betterment Foundation in 1906. He also defended eugenics, serving in the scientific advisory board of the Eugenics Record Office and as first president of the American Eugenics Society.^[36]

When his daughter Margaret was diagnosed with

• Primary
  • 1892. Mathematical Investigations in the Theory of Value and Prices.[38] Scroll to chapter links.
  • 1896. Appreciation and Interest. Link.
  • 1906. The Nature of Capital and Income.^[39] Scroll to chapter links.
  • 1907. The Rate of Interest.^[39] Extracts Archived 2017-12-15 at the Wayback Machine from Preface and Appendix to ch. VII.
  • 1910, 1914. Introduction to Economic Science. Section links.
  • 1911a,
    Library of Economics and Liberty (LE&L). Full text of 1920 edition online via FRASER
  • 1911b, 1913. Elementary Principles of Economics. Scroll to chapter links.
  • 1915. How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science (with Eugene Lyon Fisk). Link.
  • 1918, "Is 'Utility' the Most Suitable Term for the Concept It is Used to Denote?" American Economic Review, pp. 335–37]. Reprint.
  • 1921a. "Dollar Stabilization," Encyclopædia Britannica 12th ed.. XXX, pp. 852–853. Reprint page links from LE&L.
  • 1921b, The Best Form of Index Number, American Statistical Association Quarterly. 17(133), pp. pp. 533–537.
  • 1922. The Making of Index Numbers: A Study of Their Varieties, Tests, and Reliability.^[41] Scroll to chapter links,
  • 1923, "The Business Cycle Largely a 'Dance of the Dollar'," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 18, pp. 1024–28. Link.
  • 1926, "A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes," International Labour Review, 13(6), p pp. 785–92. Reprinted as 1973, "I Discovered the Phillips Curve: A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes'," Journal of Political Economy, 81(2, Part 1), p pp. 496–502.
  • 1927, "A Statistical Method for Measuring 'Marginal Utility' and Testing the Justice of a Progressive Income Tax" in Economic Essays Contributed in Honor of John Bates Clark .
  • 1928, The Money Illusion, New York: Adelphi Company. Scroll to chapter-preview links.
  • 1930a. The Stock Market Crash and After.
  • 1930b. The Theory of Interest.^[42] Chapter I. Archived 2017-12-15 at the Wayback Machine Chapter links, each numbered by paragraph via LE&L.
  • 1932. Booms and Depressions: Some First Principles. full text online via FRASER.
  • Fisher, Irving (1933a). "The debt-deflation theory of great depressions". Econometrica. 1 (4): 337–357.
    JSTOR 1907327 – via FRASER
    .
  • 1933b. Stamp Scrip. full text online
  • 1935. 100% Money. full text online
  • 1942. "Constructive Income Taxation: A Proposal for Reform." New York: Harper & Brothers.
  • 1996. The Works of Irving Fisher. edited by William J. Barber et al. 14 volumes London : Pickering & Chatto.

See also

References

Further reading

• Allen, Robert Loring (1993). Irving Fisher: A Biography
• Dimand, Robert W. (2020). "J. Laurence Laughlin versus Irving Fisher on the quantity theory of money, 1894 to 1913." Oxford Economic Papers
• Dimand, Robert W. (2003). "Irving Fisher on the International Transmission of Booms and Depressions through Monetary Standards." Journal of Money, Credit & Banking. Vol: 35#1 pp 49+. online edition
• Dimand, Robert W. (1993). "The Dance of the Dollar: Irving Fisher's Monetary Theory of Economic Fluctuations," History of Economics Review 20:161–172.
• Dimand, Robert W. (1994). "Irving Fisher's Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions," Review of Social Economy 52:92–107
• Dimand, Robert W (1998). "The Fall and Rise of Irving Fisher's Macroeconomics". Journal of the History of Economic Thought. 20 (2): 191–201.
  S2CID 153821087
  .
• Dimand, Robert W., and Geanakoplos, John (2005). "Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist" American Journal of Economics & Sociology, Jan 2005, Vol. 64 Issue 1, pp. 3–18
• Dorfman, Joseph [de] (1958). The Economic Mind in American Civilization, vol. 3.
• Fellner, William, ed. (1967). Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irving Fisher
• Fisher, Irving Norton (1956). My Father Irving Fisher.
• Sasuly, Max (1947). "Irving Fisher and Social Science". Econometrica. 15 (4): 255–78.
  JSTOR 1905330
  .
• Schumpeter, Joseph
  (1951). Ten Great Economists: 222–38.
• Schumpeter, Joseph (1954). A History of Economic Analysis (1954)
• Thaler, Richard (1999). "Irving Fisher: Behavioral Economist
  ," American Economic Review.
• The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, Vol. 2: 369–76. Reprinted in American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Jan, 2005, 17 pages.
• Tobin, James (1985). "Neoclassical Theory in America: J. B. Clark and Fisher" American Economic Review (Dec 1985) vol 75#6 pp. 28–38 in JSTOR

External links

Wikisource has original works by or about:
Irving Fisher

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Irving Fisher.

Wikiquote has quotations related to Irving Fisher.

• Archive for the History of Economic Thought at McMaster University
• New School for Social Research
  website:
  • Irving Fisher, 1867–1947. Includes a photograph of the young Fisher. For a photograph of the older man, see Irving Fisher on the Portraits of Statisticians page.
  • Irving Fisher's Theory of Investment.
• Irving Fisher Papers (MS 212). Manuscripts and Archives, Yale University Library.[1]
• Herbert Scarf, William C.Brainard, "How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891". Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1272, August 2000 – for the description of Fisher's hydraulic apparatus.
• "Irving Fisher (1867–1947)".
  Library of Economics and Liberty (2nd ed.). Liberty Fund
  . 2008.
• Works by Irving Fisher at Project Gutenberg
• Works by or about Irving Fisher at Internet Archive
• Works by or about Irving Fisher on FRASER
• Irving Fisher at Find a Grave