Climate change in South Asia
This article needs to be updated.(May 2019) |
Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to
Among the countries of South Asia, Bangladesh is likely to be the worst affected by climate change. This is owing to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed topography,[5] and socio-economic factors, including its high population density, levels of poverty, and dependence on agriculture.[6] Its sea level, temperature, and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross-boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in freshwater availability, disturbance of morphological processes,[clarification needed] and a higher intensity of flooding.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Bangladesh only contributes 0.21%[7][unreliable source?] of the world's emissions yet it has 2.11% of the world's population.[8][unreliable source?] In contrast, the United States makes up about 4.25 percent[9][unreliable source?] of the world's population, yet they produce approximately 15 percent of the pollution[10] that causes global warming.
According to data from 2020, China, the United States, India, and Russia are the world's biggest emitters of CO2.[10]
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Regarding local temperature rises, the IPCC figure shows that mean annual value of temperature rise by the end of the century in South Asia is 3.3 °C with the min-max range as 2.7 – 4.7 °C. The mean value for Tibet would be higher with mean increase of 3.8 °C and min-max figures of 2.6 and 6.1 °C respectively, which implies harsher warming conditions for the Himalayan watersheds.[11]
Extreme weather events
Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as
Sea level rise
The global average sea level rose by 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.[16] More recent analysis of a number of semi empirical models predict a sea level rise of about 1 metre by the year 2100. [17] Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people.[18] Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat. It has been predicted that the historical city of Thatta and Badin, in Sindh, Pakistan would have been swallowed by the sea by 2025, as the sea is already encroaching 80 acres of land here, every day. [19]
Some territories in India were already evacuated due to increase in tidal flooding. Large part of some Indian cities will be below tide-level by 2030: Mumbai, Kolkata, Cuttack, Kochi and more. Navi Mumbai will be below this level almost entirely.[20]
In October 2019, a study was published in the Nature Communications journal. The journal claims that the number of people who will be impacted from sea level rise during 21st century is 3 times higher than the previous expected number. By 2050, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. 70% of these people will live in 8 countries in Asia: China, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines. Large parts of Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok and Basra could be inundated.[21][22]
Population that will live in a zone of annual flooding by 2050 in millions, in 6 countries in Asia, according to old and new estimates:[23]
Country | Old estimate | New estimate |
---|---|---|
China | 29 | 93 |
Bangladesh | 5 | 42 |
India | 5 | 36 |
Vietnam | 9 | 31 |
Indonesia | 5 | 23 |
Thailand | 1 | 12 |
Impacts on people
Economic impacts
India has the world's highest social cost of carbon.[24] The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).[25]
If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line.
Agriculture
Climate Change in India and Pakistan will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million that make up India's poor. This is because so many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter and income. More than 56% of people in India work in agriculture, while in Pakistan 43% of its population work in agriculture while many others earn their living in coastal areas.[32]
Health impacts
Heat waves
Heat waves' frequency and power are increasing in India because of climate change. The number of heat wave days has increased — not just day temperature, night temperatures increased also. 2018 was the country's sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. The capital New Delhi broke its all-time record with a high of 48 degrees Celsius.[33] The government is being advised by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in predicting and mitigating heat waves. The government of Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan.[34]
Impacts on migration
Villagers in India's North Eastern state of Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels will submerge neighboring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya which has few resources to handle such a situation.[35][36]
Mitigation and adaptation
There are many concrete steps which can be taken to address the threat of climate change. Incentives can be provided for
The latest accord, the 2015 Paris Agreement, takes a different approach. The 197 signatory countries have promised to limit global temperature increase to just 1.5 °C over pre-industrialization levels, but each country has set its own targets. India, for instance, has promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels (Chart 1a/ 1b).[37]
Adaptation
The Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaption Information Platform (AP-PLAT) was launched in 2019. It aims to provide Asia and Pacific countries with data on climate change and convert it to adaptation and resilience measures.[38]
Climate change by South Asian country
Afghanistan
In
Combined with infrequent earthquakes, climate-related disasters such as floods, flash floods, avalanches and heavy snowfalls on average affect over 200,000 people every year,[39] causing massive losses of lives, livelihoods and properties.[40][41][42][43] These interacting factors, particularly protracted conflicts which erode and challenge the ability to handle, adapt to and plan for climate change at individual and national levels, often turn climate change risks and hazards into disasters.
Although the country itself contributes only very little to global warming with regards to greenhouse gas emissions, droughts due to climate change affect and will affect Afghanistan to a high degree.
Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change impacts in the world,[44][45] ranked 179 out of 185 countries.[46][47][48] As of 2021, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed more than $900 million,[49] for irrigation and agriculture infrastructure projects to help with food security, agribusiness, and enhancement of water resources management through a climate resilience approach.[50]Bangladesh
Temperature in Bangladesh has risen by 2.74 Degrees Celsius in the past 20 years. The environmentalists believe if the trend moves on like this, 17% of Bangladesh will be under water by 2040.
Bhutan
India
Temperatures in India have risen by 1.94 °C (3.5 °F) between 1901 and 2018.[64]
According to some current projections, the number and severity of droughts in India will have markedly increased by the end of the present century.[65]Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
See also
- Environment of India
- Energy policy of India
- Climate change in China
- Asian brown cloud
- Indian Network on Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)
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Notes
External links
- Climate Change India
- Fighting Global Warming in India
- Global Warming and its effects in South Asian Countries
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