Effects of climate change on biomes
Furthermore, climate change may disrupt the ecology among interacting species, via changes in behaviour and phenology, or via climate niche mismatch.[9] For example, climate change can cause species to move in different directions, potentially disrupting their interactions with each other.[10][11]
Examples of effects on some biome types are provided in the following. Research into desertification is complex, and there is no single metric which can define all aspects. However, more intense climate change is still expected to increase the current extent of drylands on the Earth's continents. Most of the expansion will be seen over regions such as "southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia".[12]
Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats.[13]
Almost no other ecosystem is as vulnerable to climate change as coral reefs. Updated 2022 estimates show that even at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), only 0.2% of the world's coral reefs would still be able to withstand marine heatwaves, as opposed to 84% being able to do so now, with the figure dropping to 0% by 2 °C (3.6 °F) and beyond.[16][17]
Terminology and classification
On Earth,
General impacts
The 2007
Furthermore, climate change may disrupt the ecology among interacting species, via changes on behaviour and phenology, or via climate niche mismatch.[9] The disruption of species-species associations is a potential consequence of climate-driven movements of each individual species towards opposite directions.[10][11] Climate change may, thus, lead to another extinction, more silent and mostly overlooked: the extinction of species' interactions. As a consequence of the spatial decoupling of species-species associations, ecosystem services derived from biotic interactions are also at risk from climate niche mismatch.[9]
Whole ecosystem disruptions will occur earlier under more intense climate change: under the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario, ecosystems in the tropical oceans would be the first to experience abrupt disruption before 2030, with tropical forests and polar environments following by 2050. In total, 15% of ecological assemblages would have over 20% of their species abruptly disrupted if as warming eventually reaches 4 °C (7.2 °F); in contrast, this would happen to fewer than 2% if the warming were to stay below 2 °C (3.6 °F).[29]
Terrestrial biomes
Deserts and drylands
Research into desertification is complex, and there is no single metric which can define all aspects. However, more intense climate change is still expected to increase the current extent of drylands on the Earth's continents: from 38% in late 20th century to 50% or 56% by the end of the century, under the "moderate" and high-warming Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Most of the expansion will be seen over regions such as "southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia".[12]
Grasslands
Tundra
Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears[38] Climate change is also leading to a mismatch between the snow camouflage of arctic animals such as snowshoe hares with the increasingly snow-free landscape.[39]
Mountains
Studies suggest a warmer climate would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the higher alpine zone.
Boreal forests
Boreal forests, also known as taiga, are warming at a faster rate than the global average.
Early 2010s research confirmed that since the 1960s, western Canadian boreal forests, and particularty the western
It has been hypothesized that the boreal environments have only a few states which are stable in the long term - a treeless tundra/steppe, a forest with >75% tree cover and an open woodland with ~20% and ~45% tree cover. Thus, continued climate change would be able to force at least some of the presently existing taiga forests into one of the two woodland states or even into a treeless steppe - but it could also shift tundra areas into woodland or forest states as they warm and become more suitable for tree growth.
In Alaska, the growth of white spruce trees is stunted by unusually warm summers, while trees on some of the coldest fringes of the forest are experiencing faster growth than previously.[78] At a certain stage, such shifts could become effectively irreversible, making them tipping points in the climate system, and a major assessment designated both processes - reversion of southern boreal forests to grasslands and the conversion of tundra areas to boreal forest - as separate examples of such, which would likely become unstoppable around 4 °C (7.2 °F), though they would still take at least 50 years, if not a century or more. However, the certainty level is still limited; there's an outside possibility that 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) would be enough to lock in either of the two shifts; on the other hand, reversion to grassland may require 5 °C (9.0 °F), and the replacement of tundra 7.2 °C (13.0 °F).[79][80]
Forest expansion is likely to take longer than decline, as juveniles of boreal species are the worst-affected by the climate shifs, while the temperate species capable of replacing them have slower growth rates.[81] Disappearance of forest also causes detectable carbon emissions, while gain acts as a carbon sink: yet the changes in albedo more than outweigh that in terms of climate impact.[79][80]
Temperate forests
In the western U.S., since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986. While
A 2018 study found that trees grow faster due to increased carbon dioxide levels, however, the trees are also eight to twelve percent lighter and denser since 1900. The authors note, "Even though a greater volume of wood is being produced today, it now contains less material than just a few decades ago."[84]
Expansion of beetles that can harm trees
Historically, a few days of extreme cold would kill most mountain
Climate change and the associated changing weather patterns occurring worldwide have a direct effect on biology, population ecology, and the population of eruptive insects, such as the
Tropical forests
The
Forest fires in Indonesia have dramatically increased since 1997 as well. These fires are often actively started to clear forest for agriculture. They can set fire to the large peat bogs in the region and the CO2 released by these peat bog fires has been estimated, in an average year, to be 15% of the quantity of CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion.[96][97]
Research suggests that slow-growing trees are only stimulated in growth for a short period under higher CO2 levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term. In general, but especially in rainforests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades.[98]
Freshwater biomes
Lakes
Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout.[99]
Rivers
Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with salmon and cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the blue whale.[101]
In general, freshwater bodies such as
Marine biomes
Polar waters
In the Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice.[104] Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and snowy owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be negatively affected.[105][106]
Coral reefs
See also
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