Effects of climate change
Effects of
The effects of climate change vary in timing and location. Up until now the
The ecosystems most immediately threatened by climate change are in the
Humans are
Changes in temperature
Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system.[15] Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future.[16][17] The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions.[1] Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures.[18] The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.[19]: 787
Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate.
How much the world warms depends on
With current mitigation policies the temperature will be about 2.7 °C (2.0–3.6 °C) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. It would rise by 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) if governments achieved all their unconditional pledges and targets. If all the countries that have set or are considering net-zero targets achieve them, the temperature will rise by around 1.8 °C (3.2 °F). There is a big gap between national plans and commitments and the actions that governments have taken around the world.[29]
Weather
The lower and middle atmosphere, where nearly all weather occurs, are heating due to the
The excess water vapour also gets caught up in storms. This makes them more intense, larger, and potentially longer-lasting. This in turn causes rain and snow events to become stronger and leads to increased risk of flooding. Extra drying worsens natural dry spells and droughts. This increases risk of heat waves and wildfires.[31] Scientists have identified human activities as the cause of recent climate trends. They are now able to estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. They call this process extreme event attribution. For instance such research can look at historical data for a region and conclude that a specific heat wave was more intense due to climate change.[33] In addition , the time shifts of the season onsets, changes in the length of the season durations have been reported in many regions of the world.[34][35][36][37][38] As a result of this, the timing of the extreme weather events such as heavy precipitaions and heat waves is changing in parallel with season shifting.
Heat waves and temperature extremes
Heatwaves over land have become more frequent and more intense in almost all world regions since the 1950s, due to
Experts can often attribute the intensity of individual heat waves to global warming. Some extreme events would have been nearly impossible without human influence on the climate system. A heatwave that would occur once every ten years before global warming started now occurs 2.8 times as often. Under further warming, heatwaves are set to become more frequent. An event that would occur every ten years would occur every other year if global warming reaches 2 °C (3.6 °F).[44]
Heat stress is related to temperature. It also increases if humidity is higher. The wet-bulb temperature measures both temperature and humidity. Humans cannot adapt to a wet-bulb temperature above 35 °C (95 °F). This heat stress can kill people. If global warming is kept below 1.5 or 2 °C (2.7 or 3.6 °F), it will probably be possible to avoid this deadly heat and humidity in most of the tropics. But there may still be negative health impacts.[45][46]
There is some evidence climate change is leading to a weakening of the polar vortex. This would make the jet stream more wavy.[47] This would lead to outbursts of very cold winter weather across parts of Eurasia[48] and North America and incursions of very warm air into the Arctic.[49][50][51]
Rain
Climate change has increased contrasts in rainfall amounts between wet and dry seasons. Wet seasons are getting wetter and dry seasons are getting drier. In the northern
Extreme storms
Storms become wetter under climate change. These include
Impacts on land
Floods
Due to an increase in heavy rainfall events,
Droughts
Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world.[61][52]: 1057 In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.[52]: 1157
Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increases plant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[52]: 1157 These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[52]: 1157 Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[62]
Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[63] Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this is agroforestry.[64]
Wildfires
Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely. In some areas, an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change. Evidence from Earth's past also shows more fire in warmer periods.[66] Climate change increases evaporation. This can cause vegetation to dry out. When a fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation, it can spread rapidly. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season. This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely, particularly in regions where snow is disappearing.[67]
Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires. But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased. This is mostly because
Oceans
There are many
The various layers of the oceans have different temperatures. For example, the water is colder towards the bottom of the ocean. This temperature stratification will increase as the ocean surface warms due to rising air temperatures.[74]: 471 Connected to this is a decline in mixing of the ocean layers, so that warm water stabilises near the surface. A reduction of cold, deep water circulation follows. The reduced vertical mixing makes it harder for the ocean to absorb heat. So a larger share of future warming goes into the atmosphere and land. One result is an increase in the amount of energy available for tropical cyclones and other storms. Another result is a decrease in nutrients for fish in the upper ocean layers. These changes also reduce the ocean's capacity to store carbon.[75] At the same time, contrasts in salinity are increasing. Salty areas are becoming saltier and fresher areas less salty.[76]
Warmer water cannot contain the same amount of oxygen as cold water. As a result, oxygen from the oceans moves to the atmosphere. Increased thermal stratification may reduce the supply of oxygen from surface waters to deeper waters. This lowers the water's oxygen content even more.[77] The ocean has already lost oxygen throughout its water column. Oxygen minimum zones are increasing in size worldwide.[74]: 471Sea level rise
Between 1901 and 2018, average global
Ice and snow
The
Glaciers decline
Since the beginning of the twentieth century, there has been a widespread retreat of glaciers.[98]: 1215 Those glaciers that are not associated with the polar ice sheets lost around 8% of their mass between 1971 and 2019.[98]: 1275 In the Andes in South America and in the Himalayas in Asia, the retreat of glaciers could impact water supply.[99][100] The melting of those glaciers could also cause landslides or glacial lake outburst floods.[101]
Ice sheets decline
The melting of the
Future melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially abrupt under a high emission scenario, as a consequence of a partial collapse.
In contrast to the West Antarctic ice sheet, melt of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to take place more gradually over millennia.[102]: 595–596 Sustained warming between 1 °C (1.8 °F) (low confidence) and 4 °C (7.2 °F) (medium confidence) would lead to a complete loss of the ice sheet. This would contribute 7 m (23 ft) to sea levels globally.[24]: 363 The ice loss could become irreversible due to a further self-enhancing feedback. This is called the elevation-surface mass balance feedback. When ice melts on top of the ice sheet, the elevation drops. Air temperature is higher at lower altitudes, so this promotes further melting.[24]: 362
Sea ice decline
Sea ice in the Arctic has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century. It has a rate of decline of 4.7% per decade. It has declined over 50% since the first satellite records.[108][109][110] Ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) degrees of warming. They are set to occur at least once every decade with a warming level of 2 °C (3.6 °F).[111]: 8 The Arctic will likely become ice-free at the end of some summers before 2050.[98]: 9
Sea ice extent in Antarctica varies a lot year by year. This makes it difficult to determine a trend, and record highs and record lows have been observed between 2013 and 2023. The general trend since 1979, the start of the
Permafrost thawing
Globally,
Wildlife and nature
Recent warming has had a big effect on natural biological systems.[117]: 81 Species worldwide are moving poleward to colder areas. On land, species may move to higher elevations. Marine species find colder water at greater depths.[9] Climate change had the third biggest impact on nature out of various factors in the five decades up to 2020. Only change in land use and sea use and direct exploitation of organisms had a bigger impact.[118]
The impacts of climate change on nature are likely to become bigger in the next few decades.
These changes of land and ocean ecosystems have direct effects on human well-being.[124][125] For instance, ocean ecosystems help with coastal protection and provide food.[125] Freshwater and land ecosystems can provide water for human consumption. Furthermore, these ecosystems can store carbon. This helps to stabilize the climate system.[124]
Ecosystems on land
Climate change is a major driver of
Rainfall on the Amazon rainforest is recycled when it evaporates back into the atmosphere instead of running off away from the rainforest. This water is essential for sustaining the rainforest. Due to deforestation the rainforest is losing this ability. This effect is even worse because climate change brings more frequent droughts to the area. The higher frequency of droughts in the first two decades of the 21st century and other data signal that a tipping point from rainforest to savanna might be close. A 2019 study concluded that this ecosystem could begin a 50-year-long collapse to a savanna around 2021. After that it would become increasingly and disproportionally more difficult to prevent or reverse this shift.[131][132][133]
Marine ecosystems
Marine heatwaves are happening more often. They have widespread impacts on life in the oceans. These include mass dying events and coral bleaching.[135] Harmful algae blooms have increased. This is in response to warming waters, loss of oxygen and eutrophication.[136]: 451 Melting sea ice destroys habitat, including for algae that grows on its underside.[137]
Ocean acidification can harm marine organisms in various ways. Shell-forming organisms like oysters are particularly vulnerable. Some phytoplankton and seagrass species may benefit. However, some of these are toxic to fish phytoplankton species. Their spread poses risks to fisheries and aquaculture. Fighting pollution can reduce the impact of acidification.[138]
Tipping points and irreversible impacts
The climate system exhibits "threshold behavior" or tipping points when parts of the natural environment enter into a new state. Examples are the runaway loss of ice sheets or the dieback of forests.[142][143] Tipping behavior is found in all parts of the climate system. These include ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere.[144] Tipping points are studied using data from Earth's distant past and by physical modeling.[142] There is already moderate risk of global tipping points at 1 °C (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures. That becomes a high risk at 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).[139]: 254, 258 It is possible that some tipping points are close or have already been crossed. Examples are the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, and warm-water coral reefs.[145]
Tipping points are perhaps the most dangerous aspect of future climate change, potentially leading to irreversible impacts on society.[146] A collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would likely halve rainfall in India and lead to severe drops in temperature in Northern Europe.[147] Many tipping points are interlinked such that triggering one may lead to a cascade of effects.[148] This remains a possibility even well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming.[149] A 2018 study states that 45% of environmental problems, including those caused by climate change, are interconnected. This increases the risk of a domino effect.[150][151]
Further impacts may be irreversible, at least over the timescale of many human generations.[152]: 785 This includes warming of the deep ocean and acidification. These are set to continue even when global temperatures stop rising.[153] In biological systems, the extinction of species would be an irreversible impact.[152]: 785 In social systems, unique cultures may be lost.[152]: 785 Climate change could make it more likely that endangered languages disappear.[154]
Health, food security and water security
Humans have a climate niche. This is a certain range of temperatures in which they flourish. Outside that niche, conditions are less favourable. This leads to negative effects on health, food security and more. This niche is a mean annual temperature below 29 °C. As of May 2023, 60 million people lived outside this niche. With every additional 0.1 degree of warming, 140 million people will be pushed out of it.[155]
Health
The
In addition to direct impacts, climate change and extreme weather events cause changes in the
The
Food security
Climate change will affect agriculture and food production around the world. The reasons include the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere. Higher temperatures and altered precipitation and
Climate change is projected to negatively affect all four pillars of food security. It will affect how much food is available. It will also affect how easy food is to access through prices, food quality, and how stable the food system is.[175] Climate change is already affecting the productivity of wheat and other staples.[176][177]
In many areas,
Water security
Water resources can be affected by climate change in various ways. The total amount of freshwater available can change, for instance due to dry spells or droughts. Heavy rainfall and flooding can have an impact on water quality. They can transport pollutants into water bodies through increased surface runoff. In coastal regions, more salt may find its way into water resources due to higher sea levels and more intense storms. Higher temperatures also directly degrade water quality. This is because warm water contains less oxygen.[179] Changes in the water cycle threaten existing and future water infrastructure. It will be harder to plan investments for water infrastructure. This is because there are significant uncertainties about future variability of the water cycle.[180]
Between 1.5 and 2.5 billion people live in areas with regular
Human settlement
Climate change is particularly likely to affect the Arctic, Africa, small islands, Asian megadeltas and the Middle East regions.[182][183] Low-latitude, less-developed regions are most at risk of experiencing negative climate change impacts.[152]: 795–796 The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the negative effects of climate change. ASEAN's climate mitigation efforts are not in proportion to the climate change threats the region faces.[184]
Impacts from heat
Increased extreme heat exposure from climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens urban settlements.[188] This is made worse by the loss of shade from urban trees that cannot withstand the heat stress.[189]
In 2019, the Crowther Lab from ETH Zurich paired the climatic conditions of 520 major cities worldwide with the predicted climatic conditions of cities in 2050. It found that 22% of the major cities would have climatic conditions that do not exist in any city today. For instance, 2050 London would have a climate similar to 2019 Melbourne in Australia. Athens and Madrid would be like Fez in Morocco. Nairobi in Kenya would be like Maputo in Mozambique. The Indian city Pune would be like Bamako in Mali and Bamako would be like Niamey in Niger. Brasilia would be like Goiania, both in Brazil.[190][191]
Low-lying coastal regions
Low-lying cities and other settlements near the sea face multiple simultaneous risks from climate change. They face flooding risks from sea level rise. In addition they may face impacts from more severe storms, ocean acidification, and salt intrusion into the groundwater. Changes like continued development in exposed areas increase the risks that these regions face.[192]
Population density on the coasts is high. Estimates of the number of people at risk of coastal flooding from climate-driven sea level rise vary. Estimates range from 190 million[193] to 300 million. It could even be 640 million in a worst-case scenario related to the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet.[194][195] People are most affected in the densely-populated low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa.[196]
Small island developing states are especially vulnerable. They are likely to experience more intense storm surges, salt water intrusion and coastal destruction.[197] Low-lying small islands in the Pacific, Indian, and Caribbean regions even risk permanent inundation. This would displace their population.[198][199][200] On the islands of Fiji, Tonga and western Samoa, migrants from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts.[200] The entire populations of small atoll nations such as Kiribati, Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are at risk of being displaced.[201][198] This could raise issues of statelessness.[202] Several factors increase their vulnerability. These are small size, isolation from other land, low financial resources, and lack of protective infrastructure.[198]
Impacts on societies
Climate change has many impacts on society.[203] It affects health, the availability of drinking water and food, inequality and economic growth. The effects of climate change are often interlinked. They can exacerbate each other as well as existing vulnerabilities.[204][205][206] Some areas may become too hot for humans to live in.[207][208] Climate-related changes or disasters may lead people in some areas to move to other parts of the country or to other countries.
Some scientists describe the effects of climate change, with continuing increases in greenhouse gas emissions, as a "climate emergency" or "climate crisis".[209][210] Some researchers[211][212] and activists[213] describe them as an existential threat to civilization. Some define these threats under climate security. The consequences of climate change, and the failure to address it, can distract people from tackling its root causes. This leads to what some researchers have termed a "climate doom loop".[214]
Displacement and migration
Displacement is when people move within a country. Migration is when they move to another country. Some people use the terms interchangeably. Climate change affects displacement in several ways. More frequent and severe weather-related disasters may increase involuntary displacement. These destroy homes and habitats. Climate impacts such as desertification and rising sea levels gradually erode livelihoods. They force communities to abandon traditional homelands. Other forms of migration are adaptive and voluntary. They are based on individual or household decisions.[215]: 1079 On the other hand, some households may fall into poverty or get poorer due to climate change. This limits their ability to move to less affected areas.[216]
Migration due to climate and weather is usually within countries. But it is long-distance. Slow-onset disasters such as droughts and heat are more likely to cause long-term migration than weather disasters like floods.[216] Migration due to desertification and reduced soil fertility is typically from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities.[217]: 109
According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, extreme weather events displaced approximately 30 million people in 2020. Violence and wars displaced approximately 10 million in the same year. There may have been a contribution of climate change to these conflicts.[218][219] In 2018, the World Bank estimated that climate change will cause internal migration of between 31 and 143 million people by 2050. This would be as they escape crop failures, water scarcity, and sea level rise. The study covered only Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.[220][221]
Conflict
Climate change is unlikely to cause international
Climate change can increase conflict risks by causing tensions about scarce resources like food, water and land, by weakening state institutions, by reducing the opportunity costs for impoverished individuals to join armed groups, and by causing tensions related to (climate-induced) migration.[224][223] Recently, experts have expressed concerns that efforts to mitigate or adapt to climate change can also cause conflicts, for instance due to higher food and energy prices or when people are forcibly re-located from vulnerable areas.[225][226]
Research has shown that climate change is not the most important conflict driver, and that it can only affect conflict risks under certain circumstances.[222] Relevant context factors include agricultural dependence, a history of political instability, poverty, and the political exclusion of ethnic groups.[227][228][229] Climate change has thus been described as a "threat multiplier".[230] Yet, an impact of climate change on specific conflicts like the Syrian civil war[231][232] or the armed conflict in Darfur[233][234] remains hard to proof.
In some cases, climate change could also decrease conflict risks. This happens either if climate-related disasters impose financial and logistical constraints on conflict parties[229][235] or if various social groups come together to cooperate about the shared challenge of climate change (environmental peacebuilding).[236][237]
Economic impacts
Economic forecasts of the impact of global warming vary considerably. The impacts are worse if there is insufficient adaptation.[238] Economic modelling may underrate the impact of catastrophic climatic changes. When estimating losses, economists choose a discount rate. This determines how much one prefers to have goods or cash now compared to at a future date. Using a high discount rate may understate economic losses. This is because losses for future generations weigh less heavily.[239]
Economic impacts are bigger the more the temperature rises.[240] Scientists have compared impacts with warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and a level of 3.66 °C (6.59 °F). They use this higher figure to represent no efforts to stop emissions. They found that total damages at 1.5 °C were 90% less than at 3.66 °C.[139]: 256 One study found that global GDP at the end of the century would be 3.5% less if warming is limited to 3 °C (5.4 °F). This study excludes the potential effect of tipping points. Another study found that excluding tipping points underestimates the global economic impact by a factor of two to eight.[139]: 256 Another study found that a temperature rise of 2 °C (3.6 °F) by 2050 would reduce global GDP by 2.5%–7.5%. By 2100 in this scenario the temperature would rise by 4 °C (7.2 °F). This could reduce global GDP by 30% in the worst case.[241]
Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather events since the 1970s.[117]: 110 Socio-economic factors have contributed to the observed trend of global losses. These factors include population growth and increased wealth.[242] Regional climatic factors also play a role. These include changes in precipitation and flooding events. It is difficult to quantify the relative impact of socio-economic factors and climate change on the observed trend.[243] The trend does suggest social systems are increasing vulnerable to climate change.[243]
Economic inequality
Climate change has contributed to global economic inequality. Wealthy countries in colder regions have felt little overall economic impact from climate change or may have benefited. Poor hotter countries probably grew less than if there had been no global warming.[245][246]
Highly affected sectors
Climate change has a bigger impact on economic sectors directly affected by weather than on other sectors.[247] It heavily affects agriculture, fisheries and forestry.[248] It also affects the tourism and energy sectors.[247] Agriculture and forestry have suffered economic losses due to droughts and extreme heat.[249] If global warming goes over 1.5 °C, there may be limits to how much tourism and outdoor work can adapt.[250]
In the energy sector, thermal power plants depend on water to cool them. Climate change can increase the likelihood of drought and fresh water shortages. Higher operating temperatures make them less efficient. This reduces their output.[251] Hydropower is affected by changes in the water cycle such as river flows. Diminished river flows can cause power shortages in areas that depend on hydroelectric power. Brazil relies on hydroelectricity. So it is particularly vulnerable. Rising temperatures, lower water flow, and changes in rainfall could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century.[251] Climate change affects oil and natural gas infrastructure. This is also vulnerable to the increased risk of disasters such as storms, cyclones, flooding and rising sea levels.[252]
Global warming affects the insurance and financial services sectors.[139]: 212–213, 228, 252 Insurance is an important tool to manage risks. But it is often unavailable to poorer households. Due to climate change, premiums are going up for certain types of insurance, such as flood insurance. Poor adaptation to climate change further widens the gap between what people can afford and the costs of insurance, as risks increase.[253] In 2019 Munich Re said climate change could make home insurance unaffordable for households at or below average incomes.[254]
It is possible that climate change has already begun to affect the
Social impacts on vulnerable groups
Climate change does not affect people within communities in the same way. It can have a bigger impact on vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and refugees than on others.[256]
- People living in poverty: Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-income communities and developing countries around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change, due to their increased exposure and vulnerability.[257] A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change.[258]
- Women: Climate change increases gender inequality.[259] It reduces women's ability to be financially independent,[260] and has an overall negative impact on the social and political rights of women. This is especially the case in economies that are heavily based on agriculture.[259]
- Indigenous peoples: Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment for food and other necessities. This makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in ecosystems.[261] Indigenous communities across the globe generally have bigger economic disadvantages than non-indigenous communities. This is due to the oppression they have experienced. These disadvantages include less access to education and jobs and higher rates of poverty. All this makes them more vulnerable to climate change.[262]
- Children: The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the worst-affected by global warming.[263] Children are 14–44 percent more likely to die from environmental factors.[264]
Possibility of societal collapse
Climate change has long been described as a severe risk to humans. Climate change as an existential threat has emerged as a key theme in the climate movement. People from
Long-term scenarios (up to 2500)
In 2021, researchers found that projecting effects of greenhouse gas emissions only for up to 2100, as widely practiced in research and
See also
- Anthropocene
- Climate crisis
- Extinction risk from climate change
- Global catastrophic risk
- History of climate change science
- Politics of climate change
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