Effective number of parties
In
The size of a party can be measured by either:
- The effective number of electoral parties (ENEP) weights parties by their share of the vote.
- The effective number of parliamentary parties (ENPP) weights parties by their share of seats in the legislature.
The number of parties equals the effective number of parties only when all parties have equal strength. In any other case, the effective number of parties is lower than the actual number of parties. The effective number of parties is a frequent operationalization for political fragmentation.
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There are several common alternatives for how to define the effective number of parties.[3] John K. Wildgen's index of "hyperfractionalization" accords special weight to small parties.[4] Juan Molinar's index gives special weight to the largest party.[5] Dunleavy and Boucek provide a useful critique of the Molinar index.[6]
Measures
Quadratic
Laakso and Taagepera (1979) were the first to define the effective number of parties using the following formula:
where n is the number of parties with at least one vote/seat and the square of each party's proportion of all votes or seats. This is also the formula for the inverse Simpson index, or the true diversity of order 2. This definition is still the most commonly-used in political science.
This measure is equivalent to the
Alternatives
An alternative formula was proposed by Grigorii Golosov in 2010.[7]
which is equivalent – if we only consider parties with at least one vote/seat – to
Here, n is the number of parties, the square of each party's proportion of all votes or seats, and is the square of the largest party's proportion of all votes or seats.
Values
The following table illustrates the difference between the values produced by the two formulas for eight hypothetical vote or seat constellations:
| Constellation | Largest component, fractional share | Other components, fractional shares | N, Laakso-Taagepera | N, Golosov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| B | 0.75 | 0.1, 15 at 0.01 | 1.74 | 1.42 |
| C | 0.55 | 0.45 | 1.98 | 1.82 |
| D | 0.55 | 3 at 0.1, 15 at 0.01 | 2.99 | 2.24 |
| E | 0.35 | 0.35, 0.3 | 2.99 | 2.90 |
| F | 0.35 | 5 at 0.1, 15 at 0.01 | 5.75 | 4.49 |
| G | 0.15 | 5 at 0.15, 0.1 | 6.90 | 6.89 |
| H | 0.15 | 7 at 0.1, 15 at 0.01 | 10.64 | 11.85 |
Institutional theory
The effective number of parties can be predicted with the seat product model[8][9] as , where M is the district magnitude and S is the assembly size.
Effective number of parties by country
For individual countries the values of effective number of number of parliamentary parties (ENPP) for the last available election is shown.[10] Some of the highest effective number of parties are in Brazil, Belgium, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. European Parliament has an even higher effective number of parties if national parties are considered, yet a much lower effective number of parties if political groups of the European Parliament are considered.
See also
- Duverger's law – Winner-takes-all voting systems tend to result in only two viable parties
- First-past-the-post voting – Plurality voting system
- Majoritarian representation– System favoring larger parties over smaller ones
- Multi-party system – Political system in which three or more parties can run for, and win in, national elections
- One-party state – State in which only one party has the right to form the government
- Proportional representation – Voting system that makes outcomes proportional to vote totals
- Two-party system – Government system dominated by only two major political parties
- Vote splitting– Loser affecting an election's results
- Electoral competition
References
- S2CID 143250203.
- ^ Lijphart, Arend (1999): Patterns of Democracy. New Haven/London: Yale UP
- ISBN 978-0-19-827347-9.
- ^ "The Measurement of Hyperfractionalization". Cps.sagepub.com. 1971-07-01. Retrieved 2014-01-05.
- S2CID 154924401.
- S2CID 33028828.
- S2CID 144503915.
- ^ Taagepera, Rein (2007). "Predicting Party Sizes". Oxford University Press
- .
- ^ "Election Indices" (PDF).
External links
- Michael Gallagher providing data on the Laakso-Taagepera effective number of parties for over 900 elections in over 100 countries
- Average effective number of parties (Golosov) for 183 democratic party systems and non-systems, 1792–2009, reported in Golosov, Grigorii V., "Towards a Classification of the World's Democratic Party Systems, Step 1: Identifying the Units", Party Politics, Vol. 19, No. 1, January 2013, pp. 134–138.
- How to compute Golosov’s effective number of parties in Excel